--- title: "BIEN PICANTE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "BIEN PICANTE ($15.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 87.48% over 5,864 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bien-picante rendered: 2026-11-11T17:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [BIEN PICANTE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bien-picante) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · BIEN PICANTE A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bien-picante?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bien-picante?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bien-picante) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bien-picante?window=all) Price · $15.00 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 87.48% · 5,864 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 463 openings · below min 7 days · 88.52% ±8.60 4,949 openings 30 days · 87.48% ±7.34 5,864 openings since tracking started · 87.48% ±7.34 5,864 openings 70.5% 84.3% 98.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bien-picante?window=24h) | 463 | 77.75% ±6.56 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bien-picante?window=7d) | 4,949 | 88.52% ±8.60 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bien-picante) | 5,864 | 87.48% ±7.34 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bien-picante?window=all) | 5,864 | 87.48% ±7.34 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) Hidden $15.00 $2,718 181.2x 2026-11-05 02:19 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) [popedu138](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/popedu138) $15.00 $952 63.48x 2026-11-05 21:24 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) [popedu138](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/popedu138) $15.00 $949 63.30x 2026-11-05 21:24 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) [THE DECOY MAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/THE%20DECOY%20MAN) $15.00 $924 61.58x 2026-11-09 11:30 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=bien-picante) [AK-47 | Point Disarray weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray) [ISIDRO GAMOS ALCURA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ISIDRO%20GAMOS%20ALCURA) $15.00 $18.43 1.23x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC [UMP-45 | Wild Child weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child) [Aqua](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Aqua) $15.00 $3.95 0.26x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [AK-47 | Point Disarray weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray) [Aqua](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Aqua) $15.00 $18.43 1.23x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [AK-47 | Rat Rod weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod) [Aqua](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Aqua) $15.00 $5.08 0.34x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [P2000 | Wicked Sick weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick) [DANIEEE. AQL MUTAJAMMID](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/DANIEEE.%20AQL%20MUTAJAMMID) $15.00 $4.37 0.29x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [Desert Eagle | Starcade weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade) [Aqua](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Aqua) $15.00 $34.82 2.32x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [M4A1-S | Decimator weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator) [Aqua](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Aqua) $15.00 $16.59 1.11x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [MP9 | Latte Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-well-worn) Hidden $15.00 $8.03 0.54x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC [UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-battle-scarred) Hidden $15.00 $4.97 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC [P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-minimal-wear) [DANIEEE. AQL MUTAJAMMID](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/DANIEEE.%20AQL%20MUTAJAMMID) $15.00 $5.90 0.39x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $2,718 (181.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.48 on average: an expected loss of $12.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt