--- title: "BIG PLAY case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "BIG PLAY ($35.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 66.92% over 125 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/big-play rendered: 2026-11-11T16:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [BIG PLAY](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/big-play) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · BIG PLAY A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/big-play?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/big-play?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/big-play) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/big-play?window=all) Price · $35.00 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 66.92% · 125 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 20 openings · below min 7 days · 106 openings · below min 30 days · 125 openings · below min since tracking started · 125 openings · below min 35.5% 68.0% 100.5% **Small sample.** 125 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/big-play?window=24h) | 20 | 68.16% ±31.8 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/big-play?window=7d) | 106 | 68.88% ±14.2 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/big-play) | 125 | 66.92% ±12.3 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/big-play?window=all) | 125 | 66.92% ±12.3 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=big-play) [AK-47 | Frontside Misty weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty) [Sunflower](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Sunflower) $35.00 $20.09 0.57x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC [M4A1-S | Party Animal weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal) [Sunflower](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Sunflower) $35.00 $10.23 0.29x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC [UMP-45 | Houndstooth (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-houndstooth-factory-new) Hidden $35.00 $5.93 0.17x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC [M4A4 | In Living Color (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-well-worn) Hidden $35.00 $39.59 1.13x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC [MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) Hidden $35.00 $6.93 0.20x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) [Sunflower](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Sunflower) $35.00 $19.05 0.54x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC [M4A1-S | Party Animal (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-battle-scarred) [Sunflower](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Sunflower) $35.00 $8.06 0.23x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) Hidden $35.00 $58.45 1.67x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) Hidden $35.00 $71.47 2.04x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC [AK-47 | Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.00 $10.16 0.29x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 66.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $66.92 on average: an expected loss of $33.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt