--- title: "BLACK JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "BLACK JOKER ($101.67) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 85.82% over 506 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/black-joker rendered: 2026-11-12T01:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [BLACK JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/black-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · BLACK JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/black-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/black-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/black-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/black-joker?window=all) Price · $101.67 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 85.82% · 506 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 109 openings · below min 7 days · 410 openings · below min 30 days · 506 openings · below min since tracking started · 506 openings · below min 80.5% 90.5% 100.5% **Small sample.** 506 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/black-joker?window=24h) | 109 | 90.96% ±8.96 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/black-joker?window=7d) | 410 | 86.53% ±4.89 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/black-joker) | 506 | 85.82% ±4.52 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/black-joker?window=all) | 506 | 85.82% ±4.52 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=black-joker) [★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-field-tested) [Gustavo JR](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Gustavo%20JR) $105 $76.60 0.73x 2026-11-11 22:50 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [feeling drowzy](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/feeling%20drowzy) $105 $173 1.65x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $105 $142 1.36x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $102 $137 1.34x 2026-11-11 15:59 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $102 $166 1.64x 2026-11-11 15:59 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-well-worn) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $105 $94.24 0.90x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) [deadtree](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/deadtree) $105 $142 1.36x 2026-11-11 06:04 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-field-tested) Hidden $104 $73.58 0.71x 2026-11-11 06:01 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) [deadtree](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/deadtree) $104 $145 1.39x 2026-11-11 06:01 UTC [? Souvenir Nova | Mandrel other · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-mandrel) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $105 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 03:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.82 on average: an expected loss of $14.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt