--- title: "BLACK case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "BLACK ($52.45) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.01% from 6 items with odds, observed 80.93% over 1,382 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/black rendered: 2026-11-12T01:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [BLACK](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/black) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · BLACK A case on Key-Drop (YOUTUBERS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/black?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/black?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/black) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/black?window=all) Price · $52.45 Advertised RTP · 87.01% · EV $45.64 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.93% · 1,382 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 51.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.90% ±15.50 168 openings 7 days · 82.65% ±7.02 856 openings 30 days · 80.93% ±5.51 1,382 openings since tracking started · 80.93% ±5.51 1,382 openings 70.5% 86.8% 103.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (75.42% – 86.44%, 1,382 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/black?window=24h) | 168 | 86.90% ±15.5 | −0.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/black?window=7d) | 856 | 82.65% ±7.02 | −1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/black) | 1,382 | 80.93% ±5.51 | −2.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/black?window=all) | 1,382 | 80.93% ±5.51 | −2.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,382 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $162 | 24.0% | 76 | 93.0 | 0.82× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $143 | 19.7% | 64 | 87.0 | 0.74× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $92.02 | 15.6% | 114 | 107.0 | 1.07× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-field-tested) | 10.0% | $72.88 | 16.0% | 130 | 138.3 | 0.94× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 17.6% | $64.28 | 24.8% | 259 | 242.9 | 1.07× | | [? Souvenir Nova \| Mandrel other · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-mandrel) | 51.6% | $0.01 | 0.0% | 173 | 713.8 | 0.24× | Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/black`, 11 Nov, 20:53 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=black) [? Souvenir Nova | Mandrel other · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-mandrel) [j0ta](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/j0ta) $52.45 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:23 UTC [𝄪 Souvenir Nova | Mandrel other · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-mandrel-2) [j0ta](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/j0ta) $52.45 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:20 UTC [𝄪 Souvenir Nova | Mandrel other · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-mandrel-2) Hidden $52.45 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:20 UTC [𝄪 Souvenir Nova | Mandrel other · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-mandrel-2) Hidden $52.45 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:20 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $52.45 $162 3.10x 2026-11-11 23:20 UTC [𝄪 Souvenir Nova | Mandrel other · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-mandrel-2) Hidden $52.45 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:20 UTC [𝄪 Souvenir Nova | Mandrel other · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-mandrel-2) Hidden $52.45 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:20 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-field-tested) [j0ta](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/j0ta) $52.45 $72.88 1.39x 2026-11-11 22:49 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) [j0ta](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/j0ta) $52.45 $64.28 1.23x 2026-11-11 22:45 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-field-tested) [j0ta](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/j0ta) $52.45 $72.88 1.39x 2026-11-11 22:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 20:53 UTC | $52.45 | 87.01% | 6 | | 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $52.45 | 87.07% | 6 | | 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $52.45 | 87.07% | 6 | | 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $52.45 | 87.07% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $52.45 | 87.07% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $52.45 | 87.07% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $52.45 | 86.67% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $52.45 | 87.06% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $52.45 | 87.06% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $52.45 | 87.06% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $52.45 | 86.57% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $52.45 | 87.28% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $52.45 | 87.06% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $52.45 | 87.05% | 6 | | 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $52.45 | 86.91% | 6 | | 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $52.45 | 86.83% | 6 | | 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $52.45 | 87.05% | 6 | | 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $52.45 | 87.05% | 6 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $52.45 | 87.05% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 30.6% extraordinary 17.7% gray 51.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.01 on average: an expected loss of $12.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt