---
title: "BLOODLORE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "BLOODLORE ($99.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.65% from 25 items with odds, observed 87.89% over 11.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bloodlore
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [BLOODLORE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bloodlore)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · BLOODLORE

A case on Key-Drop (HALLOWEEN), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bloodlore?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bloodlore?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bloodlore) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bloodlore?window=all)

Price · $99.00

Advertised RTP · 87.65% · EV $86.77 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.89% · 11.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 88.00% ±2.48 9,011 openings

30 days · 87.89% ±2.19 11.5K openings

since tracking started · 87.89% ±2.19 11.5K openings

85.0% 88.0% 91.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bloodlore?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bloodlore?window=7d) | 9,011 | 88.00% ±2.48 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bloodlore) | 11.5K | 87.89% ±2.19 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bloodlore?window=all) | 11.5K | 87.89% ±2.19 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $9,501 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 14,286 | $7,950 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,679 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.74× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,680 | 0.4% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.30× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,332 | 0.3% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.87× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 143 | $594 | 4.8% | 41 | 80.5 | 0.51× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 114 | $393 | 4.0% | 50 | 101.3 | 0.49× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $328 | 4.0% | 145 | 120.8 | 1.20× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 93 | $319 | 4.0% | 144 | 124.3 | 1.16× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 84 | $289 | 4.0% | 179 | 136.9 | 1.31× |
| [P90 \| Run and Hide (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $156 | 10.3% | 748 | 658.1 | 1.14× |
| [SG 553 \| Tornado (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tornado-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $128 | 10.3% | 803 | 797.4 | 1.01× |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $110 | 10.3% | 861 | 926.2 | 0.93× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $101 | 10.3% | 1,066 | 1011.4 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $67.74 | 1.3% | 125 | 188.7 | 0.66× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $54.89 | 1.4% | 196 | 248.5 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $54.41 | 5.5% | 1,069 | 1018.3 | 1.05× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $53.83 | 5.5% | 1,084 | 1025.2 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $53.49 | 2.6% | 348 | 483.3 | 0.72× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $50.33 | 1.4% | 202 | 286.5 | 0.71× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $49.30 | 5.2% | 1,015 | 1063.2 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $48.80 | 1.4% | 188 | 294.6 | 0.64× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $47.74 | 2.7% | 350 | 566.1 | 0.62× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $45.95 | 5.0% | 1,087 | 1093.1 | 0.99× |
| [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-well-worn) | 11.1% | $31.24 | 4.0% | 1,159 | 1274.9 | 0.91× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/bloodlore`, 10 Nov, 02:22 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) [CHJNA4Q](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CHJNA4Q) $99.00 $9,981 100.8x 2026-11-05 21:50 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $99.00 $3,788 38.26x 2026-11-05 07:45 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $99.00 $3,679 37.16x 2026-11-07 16:30 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [LUCKY CODE = JUEG](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LUCKY%20CODE%20%3D%20JUEG) $99.00 $1,661 16.78x 2026-11-08 10:22 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [commend back](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/commend%20back) $99.00 $1,661 16.78x 2026-11-07 10:45 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [LUCKY CODE = JUEG](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LUCKY%20CODE%20%3D%20JUEG) $99.00 $1,626 16.43x 2026-11-08 10:19 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $99.00 $1,414 14.28x 2026-11-03 04:05 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $99.00 $1,346 13.60x 2026-11-05 20:07 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $99.00 $606 6.12x 2026-11-03 13:54 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [twitch.tv/cr4v4s](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/twitch.tv%2Fcr4v4s) $99.00 $603 6.09x 2026-11-05 07:46 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=bloodlore)

[AK-47 | The Oligarch (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) [Ralphxp](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Ralphxp) $99.00 $54.41 0.55x 2026-11-10 06:08 UTC

[AK-47 | Asiimov weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov) [Ralphxp](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Ralphxp) $99.00 $54.23 0.55x 2026-11-10 06:06 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) [????????????????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $99.00 $45.95 0.46x 2026-11-10 05:54 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) [????????????????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $99.00 $49.30 0.50x 2026-11-10 05:54 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-factory-new) [????????????????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $99.00 $53.83 0.54x 2026-11-10 05:53 UTC

[P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-field-tested) [????????????????????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $99.00 $156 1.58x 2026-11-10 04:15 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-factory-new) [????????????????????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $99.00 $53.83 0.54x 2026-11-10 04:15 UTC

[P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-field-tested) [????????????????????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $99.00 $156 1.58x 2026-11-10 04:15 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) [????????????????????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $99.00 $45.95 0.46x 2026-11-10 04:15 UTC

[AK-47 | The Oligarch (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) [????????????????????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $99.00 $54.41 0.55x 2026-11-10 04:15 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $99.00 | 87.65% | 25 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $99.00 | 87.60% | 25 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $99.00 | 87.89% | 25 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $99.00 | 87.81% | 25 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $99.00 | 87.92% | 25 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $99.00 | 87.84% | 25 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $99.00 | 87.68% | 25 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $99.00 | 87.38% | 25 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $99.00 | 87.38% | 25 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $99.00 | 87.56% | 25 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $99.00 | 87.43% | 25 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $99.00 | 87.36% | 25 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $99.00 | 87.65% | 25 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $99.00 | 87.53% | 25 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $99.00 | 87.35% | 25 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 26.4% legendary 0.7% restricted 1.1% gold 19.2% pink 16.8% gray 6.9% Ancient 1.6% red 8.8% blue 8.9% consumer 9.5% best hit $9,981 (100.8x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.65 on average: an expected loss of $12.35 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt