---
title: "BLOODSHOT case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "BLOODSHOT ($315.72) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 38 items with odds, observed 88.28% over 2,028 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bloodshot
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:38Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [BLOODSHOT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bloodshot)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · BLOODSHOT

A case on Key-Drop (PREMIUM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bloodshot?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bloodshot?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bloodshot) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bloodshot?window=all)

Price · $315.72

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $276.25 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.28% · 2,028 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.00% ±7.30 757 openings

7 days · 88.15% ±4.76 1,908 openings

30 days · 88.28% ±4.62 2,028 openings

since tracking started · 88.28% ±4.62 2,028 openings

80.0% 88.0% 96.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bloodshot?window=24h) | 757 | 88.00% ±7.30 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bloodshot?window=7d) | 1,908 | 88.15% ±4.76 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bloodshot) | 2,028 | 88.28% ±4.62 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bloodshot?window=all) | 2,028 | 88.28% ±4.62 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,028 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $8,833 | 1.0% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $6,040 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,500 | $5,557 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,111 | $2,514 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 909 | $1,996 | 0.8% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 588 | $1,328 | 0.8% | 8 | 3.4 | 2.32× |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $1,109 | 5.2% | 22 | 26.4 | 0.83× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 64 | $915 | 5.2% | 34 | 31.8 | 1.07× |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $900 | 5.2% | 36 | 32.4 | 1.11× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 93 | $667 | 2.6% | 22 | 21.9 | 1.00× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $651 | 2.7% | 17 | 22.9 | 0.74× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 43 | $629 | 5.3% | 60 | 46.8 | 1.28× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 39 | $572 | 5.3% | 57 | 51.7 | 1.10× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 77 | $532 | 2.5% | 22 | 26.4 | 0.83× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 63 | $478 | 2.8% | 27 | 32.4 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 185 | $341 | 0.7% | 7 | 11.0 | 0.64× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 14.5% | $336 | 17.6% | 228 | 293.5 | 0.78× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $312 | 10.1% | 142 | 181.3 | 0.78× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 11.0% | $257 | 10.2% | 216 | 222.7 | 0.97× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $241 | 3.3% | 134 | 75.8 | 1.77× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 26 | $225 | 3.2% | 75 | 79.1 | 0.95× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $182 | 1.3% | 46 | 40.4 | 1.14× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) | 1 in 270 | $170 | 0.2% | 9 | 7.5 | 1.20× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $148 | 1.5% | 50 | 56.2 | 0.89× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 135 | $126 | 0.3% | 9 | 15.0 | 0.60× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $123 | 2.5% | 123 | 113.6 | 1.08× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $101 | 2.3% | 107 | 127.8 | 0.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $86.28 | 0.3% | 17 | 22.5 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $70.80 | 0.5% | 27 | 37.7 | 0.72× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62 | $65.37 | 0.4% | 26 | 32.9 | 0.79× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $57.86 | 0.4% | 37 | 42.4 | 0.87× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $54.95 | 0.5% | 31 | 46.0 | 0.67× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 35 | $54.24 | 0.6% | 45 | 57.8 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $53.97 | 0.4% | 36 | 44.6 | 0.81× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $53.21 | 0.6% | 53 | 59.6 | 0.89× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $50.31 | 0.5% | 59 | 53.1 | 1.11× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $50.22 | 0.4% | 42 | 50.1 | 0.84× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $48.53 | 0.5% | 41 | 55.0 | 0.75× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/bloodshot`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $316 $8,984 28.46x 2026-11-05 14:38 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $316 $8,833 27.98x 2026-11-10 20:35 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) Hidden $316 $2,639 8.36x 2026-11-03 17:55 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [INODORO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/INODORO) $316 $1,414 4.48x 2026-11-02 23:47 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [INODORO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/INODORO) $316 $1,414 4.48x 2026-11-02 23:46 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $316 $1,382 4.38x 2026-11-05 14:35 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $316 $1,382 4.38x 2026-11-05 14:35 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $316 $1,345 4.26x 2026-11-07 16:28 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [thecast2](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/thecast2) $316 $1,331 4.22x 2026-11-11 09:43 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [thecast2](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/thecast2) $316 $1,328 4.21x 2026-11-11 09:45 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=bloodshot)

[★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) [Polesz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Polesz) $316 $336 1.06x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) Hidden $316 $49.30 0.16x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) [Polesz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Polesz) $316 $333 1.06x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $316 $257 0.81x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $316 $572 1.81x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC

[M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) Hidden $316 $89.69 0.28x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $316 $333 1.06x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $316 $53.67 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $316 $255 0.81x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $316 $255 0.81x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $316 | 87.50% | 38 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $316 | 87.65% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $316 | 87.93% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $316 | 87.52% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $316 | 87.52% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $316 | 87.55% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $316 | 87.67% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $316 | 87.47% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $316 | 87.61% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $316 | 87.82% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $316 | 87.66% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $316 | 87.27% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $316 | 87.79% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $316 | 87.43% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $316 | 87.50% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $316 | 87.32% | 38 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $316 | 87.62% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 70.7% contraband 0.0% extraordinary 4.9% gold 1.6% epic 9.3% rare 9.6% Ancient 1.6% red 2.3% best hit $8,984 (28.46x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt