---
title: "BUBBLE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "BUBBLE ($11.39) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 54 items with odds, observed 79.91% over 2,426 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bubble
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [BUBBLE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bubble)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · BUBBLE

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bubble?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bubble?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bubble) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bubble?window=all)

Price · $11.39

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $9.97 from 54 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.91% · 2,426 openings, odds method

Variance · 24.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 71.36% ±58.87 272 openings

7 days · 79.02% ±22.03 2,039 openings

30 days · 79.91% ±20.03 2,426 openings

since tracking started · 79.91% ±20.03 2,426 openings

12.0% 71.5% 131.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bubble?window=24h) | 272 | 71.36% ±58.9 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bubble?window=7d) | 2,039 | 79.02% ±22.0 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bubble) | 2,426 | 79.91% ±20.0 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bubble?window=all) | 2,426 | 79.91% ±20.0 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 54 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,426 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,557 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $323 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $287 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $173 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $130 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $119 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $54.24 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $53.21 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $43.45 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $42.85 | 0.3% | 10 | 1.7 | 5.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $35.79 | 13.5% | 38 | 91.2 | 0.42× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 323 | $27.05 | 0.8% | 1 | 7.5 | 0.13× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $26.29 | 1.6% | 9 | 14.6 | 0.62× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $24.37 | 4.4% | 26 | 43.2 | 0.60× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 204 | $23.08 | 1.1% | 4 | 11.9 | 0.34× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $22.79 | 4.7% | 22 | 49.5 | 0.44× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $20.29 | 2.3% | 21 | 27.9 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $18.51 | 2.6% | 20 | 33.5 | 0.60× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-well-worn) | 1 in 81 | $18.34 | 2.3% | 11 | 29.8 | 0.37× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $16.90 | 5.1% | 23 | 72.8 | 0.32× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $16.70 | 2.4% | 27 | 34.2 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $16.58 | 4.5% | 62 | 66.0 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $15.30 | 4.9% | 55 | 77.6 | 0.71× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $13.28 | 4.7% | 63 | 85.9 | 0.73× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $10.91 | 1.7% | 19 | 37.1 | 0.51× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 106 | $10.60 | 1.0% | 17 | 22.8 | 0.75× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 70 | $10.57 | 1.5% | 25 | 34.7 | 0.72× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 74 | $9.03 | 1.2% | 18 | 33.0 | 0.55× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $8.79 | 3.8% | 107 | 103.3 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-well-worn) | 1 in 84 | $8.68 | 1.0% | 25 | 28.9 | 0.87× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $8.40 | 1.1% | 16 | 30.3 | 0.53× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-battle-scarred) | 1 in 79 | $8.29 | 1.1% | 29 | 30.8 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $7.50 | 1.1% | 21 | 36.9 | 0.57× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $7.50 | 1.1% | 17 | 36.9 | 0.46× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $7.02 | 1.0% | 20 | 35.9 | 0.56× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-well-worn) | 1 in 65 | $6.84 | 1.1% | 16 | 37.4 | 0.43× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $6.83 | 1.0% | 20 | 35.2 | 0.57× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $6.69 | 0.6% | 16 | 21.1 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $6.25 | 1.1% | 32 | 42.2 | 0.76× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $6.19 | 1.0% | 32 | 40.3 | 0.79× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $5.95 | 1.1% | 20 | 42.7 | 0.47× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $5.27 | 1.5% | 44 | 69.9 | 0.63× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $4.55 | 0.7% | 21 | 36.1 | 0.58× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $4.51 | 0.7% | 39 | 36.6 | 1.06× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-well-worn) | 1 in 63 | $4.51 | 0.7% | 25 | 38.3 | 0.65× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $4.44 | 0.7% | 22 | 37.6 | 0.59× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $4.15 | 1.1% | 43 | 63.3 | 0.68× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $4.08 | 0.7% | 25 | 44.2 | 0.57× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $3.44 | 1.2% | 49 | 82.2 | 0.60× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $3.20 | 0.8% | 31 | 62.1 | 0.50× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $3.17 | 2.0% | 115 | 155.3 | 0.74× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $3.08 | 2.0% | 169 | 157.2 | 1.08× |
| [P250 \| Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $2.49 | 1.8% | 168 | 171.0 | 0.98× |
| [Souvenir MP9 \| Music Box (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-music-box-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $2.40 | 1.7% | 178 | 169.8 | 1.05× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/bubble`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=bubble)

[M4A1-S | Party Animal weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal) [secsuscat](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/secsuscat) $11.39 $10.72 0.94x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC

[AK-47 | The Outsiders weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders) [THE DECOY MAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/THE%20DECOY%20MAN) $11.39 $6.68 0.59x 2026-11-11 11:06 UTC

[AK-47 | The Outsiders weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders) [THE DECOY MAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/THE%20DECOY%20MAN) $11.39 $6.68 0.59x 2026-11-11 11:06 UTC

[MAG-7 | Justice weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice) [THE DECOY MAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/THE%20DECOY%20MAN) $11.39 $6.29 0.55x 2026-11-11 11:06 UTC

[M4A1-S | Party Animal weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal) [THE DECOY MAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/THE%20DECOY%20MAN) $11.39 $10.72 0.94x 2026-11-11 11:06 UTC

[P2000 | Panther Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-battle-scarred) [THE DECOY MAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/THE%20DECOY%20MAN) $11.39 $3.17 0.28x 2026-11-11 11:06 UTC

[MAG-7 | Justice weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice) [THE DECOY MAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/THE%20DECOY%20MAN) $11.39 $6.29 0.55x 2026-11-11 11:06 UTC

[M4A1-S | Party Animal weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal) [THE DECOY MAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/THE%20DECOY%20MAN) $11.39 $10.72 0.94x 2026-11-11 11:06 UTC

[P2000 | Wicked Sick weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick) [THE DECOY MAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/THE%20DECOY%20MAN) $11.39 $3.75 0.33x 2026-11-11 11:06 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare) [THE DECOY MAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/THE%20DECOY%20MAN) $11.39 $9.59 0.84x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $11.39 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $11.39 | 87.87% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $11.39 | 87.26% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $11.39 | 87.78% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $11.39 | 87.72% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $11.39 | 87.60% | 54 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $11.39 | 87.76% | 54 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $11.39 | 87.65% | 54 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $11.39 | 87.48% | 54 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $11.39 | 87.59% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $11.39 | 87.71% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $11.39 | 87.53% | 54 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $11.39 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $11.39 | 87.68% | 54 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $11.39 | 87.76% | 54 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $11.39 | 87.62% | 54 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $11.39 | 87.66% | 54 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.39 | 87.82% | 54 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.2% extraordinary 0.0% Ancient 0.1% classified 37.8% pink 21.1% #d32ce6 5.0% Classified 3.4% rare 3.1% #d32ee6 0.9% Legendary 1.6% light blue 6.4% violet 6.5% consumer 7.0% blue 7.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt