--- title: "BULLET JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "BULLET JOKER ($8.37) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 90.25% over 7,173 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bullet-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T17:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [BULLET JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bullet-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · BULLET JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bullet-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bullet-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bullet-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bullet-joker?window=all) Price · $8.37 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 90.25% · 7,173 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 719 openings · below min 7 days · 90.35% ±5.53 5,736 openings 30 days · 90.25% ±4.95 7,173 openings since tracking started · 90.25% ±4.95 7,173 openings 64.0% 80.3% 96.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bullet-joker?window=24h) | 719 | 78.65% ±14.1 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bullet-joker?window=7d) | 5,736 | 90.35% ±5.53 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bullet-joker) | 7,173 | 90.25% ±4.95 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bullet-joker?window=all) | 7,173 | 90.25% ±4.95 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=bullet-joker) [AWP | Capillary weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary) [ERgami\_CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ERgami_CS2.ME) $8.06 $0.87 0.11x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [AWP | Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) [ERgami\_CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ERgami_CS2.ME) $7.76 $0.83 0.11x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) Hidden $7.76 $1.57 0.20x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [P250 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $7.76 $0.09 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) Hidden $7.76 $1.30 0.17x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $7.76 $3.46 0.45x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) Hidden $7.76 $6.12 0.79x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [Nova | Ocular (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ocular-field-tested) [ERgami\_CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ERgami_CS2.ME) $8.06 $0.66 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:06 UTC [SG 553 | Phantom weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom) [ERgami\_CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ERgami_CS2.ME) $8.06 $1.27 0.16x 2026-11-11 16:06 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) Hidden $7.76 $79.73 10.27x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.25 on average: an expected loss of $9.75 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt