---
title: "BULLET case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "BULLET ($1.12) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 41 items with odds, observed 82.86% over 8,600 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bullet
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [BULLET](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bullet)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · BULLET

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bullet?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bullet?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bullet) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bullet?window=all)

Price · $1.12

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.98 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.86% · 8,600 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.89% ±8.77 1,043 openings

7 days · 83.18% ±3.38 6,831 openings

30 days · 82.86% ±3.00 8,600 openings

since tracking started · 82.86% ±3.00 8,600 openings

75.5% 85.0% 94.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.27% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.85% – 85.86%, 8,600 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bullet?window=24h) | 1,043 | 84.89% ±8.77 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bullet?window=7d) | 6,831 | 83.18% ±3.38 | −2.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bullet) | 8,600 | 82.86% ±3.00 | −2.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bullet?window=all) | 8,600 | 82.86% ±3.00 | −2.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,613 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 6,250 | $81.04 | 1.3% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 1,613 | $20.70 | 1.3% | 1 | 5.3 | 0.19× |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-field-tested) | 1 in 1,053 | $13.35 | 1.3% | 4 | 8.2 | 0.49× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 980 | $12.38 | 1.3% | 4 | 8.8 | 0.46× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 495 | $6.24 | 1.3% | 15 | 17.4 | 0.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 361 | $4.53 | 1.3% | 13 | 23.9 | 0.54× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $3.47 | 9.0% | 205 | 217.9 | 0.94× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $3.20 | 9.0% | 215 | 236.3 | 0.91× |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2.61 | 13.4% | 391 | 431.9 | 0.91× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $2.53 | 3.1% | 68 | 101.8 | 0.67× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 74 | $1.89 | 2.6% | 69 | 116.4 | 0.59× |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $1.72 | 6.4% | 135 | 312.8 | 0.43× |
| [M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $1.66 | 1.4% | 48 | 71.6 | 0.67× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) | 1 in 157 | $1.61 | 1.0% | 30 | 54.8 | 0.55× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $1.59 | 2.9% | 226 | 154.3 | 1.47× |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $1.57 | 1.5% | 57 | 81.7 | 0.70× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) | 1 in 231 | $1.56 | 0.7% | 32 | 37.2 | 0.86× |
| [M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 106 | $1.56 | 1.5% | 46 | 81.0 | 0.57× |
| [MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $1.48 | 2.9% | 153 | 165.7 | 0.92× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-well-worn) | 1 in 119 | $1.40 | 1.2% | 47 | 72.3 | 0.65× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) | 1 in 153 | $1.40 | 0.9% | 27 | 56.3 | 0.48× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 217 | $1.39 | 0.7% | 25 | 39.6 | 0.63× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Well-Worn) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-well-worn) | 1 in 147 | $1.37 | 1.0% | 31 | 58.7 | 0.53× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $1.31 | 2.9% | 186 | 187.2 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-well-worn) | 1 in 161 | $1.30 | 0.8% | 25 | 53.5 | 0.47× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 158 | $1.29 | 0.8% | 27 | 54.3 | 0.50× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 128 | $1.28 | 1.0% | 42 | 67.4 | 0.62× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 173 | $1.24 | 0.7% | 34 | 49.8 | 0.68× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-well-worn) | 1 in 168 | $1.22 | 0.7% | 33 | 51.4 | 0.64× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-field-tested) | 1 in 152 | $1.16 | 0.8% | 25 | 56.8 | 0.44× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Well-Worn) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $0.91 | 3.2% | 180 | 299.0 | 0.60× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.83 | 3.3% | 185 | 340.1 | 0.54× |
| [Nova \| Ocular (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ocular-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.74 | 6.0% | 712 | 680.7 | 1.05× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $0.47 | 1.2% | 128 | 209.7 | 0.61× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.45 | 1.4% | 162 | 257.5 | 0.63× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $0.42 | 1.4% | 170 | 283.6 | 0.60× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $0.39 | 1.5% | 158 | 314.6 | 0.50× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.33 | 1.3% | 199 | 344.0 | 0.58× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.32 | 1.4% | 216 | 359.2 | 0.60× |
| [MAG-7 \| Foresight (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-factory-new) | 12.4% | $0.24 | 3.0% | 1,089 | 1067.9 | 1.02× |
| [P250 \| Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) | 18.4% | $0.09 | 1.7% | 1,685 | 1580.8 | 1.07× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/bullet`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) Hidden $1.12 $80.71 72.06x 2026-11-04 17:20 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=bullet)

[AWP | Capillary weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary) [Nidzaaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Nidzaaa) $1.12 $0.87 0.78x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[P250 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) [Pièrre Sanchèz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pi%C3%A8rre%20Sanch%C3%A8z) $1.12 $0.09 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[P250 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) [KeBartek](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/KeBartek) $1.12 $0.09 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[P250 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) [♛ALEXX♛](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%99%9BALEXX%E2%99%9B) $1.12 $0.09 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[MAC-10 | Last Dive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-field-tested) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $1.12 $1.48 1.32x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-field-tested) Hidden $1.12 $1.56 1.39x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[AWP | Capillary (Well-Worn) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-well-worn) Hidden $1.12 $0.94 0.84x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[Glock-18 | Weasel (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.12 $1.89 1.69x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[MAC-10 | Last Dive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-field-tested) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $1.12 $1.60 1.43x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) [♛ALEXX♛](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%99%9BALEXX%E2%99%9B) $1.12 $3.47 3.10x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $1.12 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $1.12 | 86.93% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $1.12 | 86.55% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.12 | 88.01% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $1.12 | 86.84% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.12 | 87.84% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $1.12 | 87.20% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $1.12 | 88.15% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $1.12 | 87.38% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $1.12 | 87.25% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $1.12 | 87.89% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $1.12 | 87.69% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $1.12 | 87.47% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.12 | 87.43% | 41 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $1.12 | 86.67% | 41 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $1.12 | 87.30% | 41 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.12 | 87.03% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 0.7% covert 0.0% classified 0.4% pink 0.1% #8847ff 6.3% Mythical 19.3% restricted 18.7% violet 15.8% Restricted 0.6% Rare 3.5% milspec 3.9% blue 12.4% industrial 18.4% best hit $80.71 (72.06x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt