--- title: "BUMBLEBEE JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "BUMBLEBEE JOKER ($730.91) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 88.70% over 964 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bumblebee-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T19:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [BUMBLEBEE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bumblebee-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · BUMBLEBEE JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bumblebee-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bumblebee-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bumblebee-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bumblebee-joker?window=all) Price · $730.91 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 88.70% · 964 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 78 openings · below min 7 days · 833 openings · below min 30 days · 964 openings · below min since tracking started · 964 openings · below min 29.5% 71.0% 112.5% **Small sample.** 964 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bumblebee-joker?window=24h) | 78 | 71.07% ±41.0 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bumblebee-joker?window=7d) | 833 | 86.11% ±14.6 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bumblebee-joker) | 964 | 88.70% ±13.6 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bumblebee-joker?window=all) | 964 | 88.70% ±13.6 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [triple](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/triple) $733 $8,984 12.25x 2026-11-08 07:25 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $733 $8,984 12.25x 2026-11-06 10:19 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $732 $8,984 12.28x 2026-11-06 10:19 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $733 $8,984 12.27x 2026-11-06 05:21 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $733 $8,984 12.25x 2026-11-04 21:11 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $733 $8,984 12.26x 2026-11-05 13:59 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $732 $8,907 12.17x 2026-11-03 12:05 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [G1G0 onte tap](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/G1G0%20onte%20tap) $732 $8,833 12.07x 2026-11-10 17:47 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [???????????????????????????? シ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%20%E3%82%B7) $732 $8,833 12.07x 2026-11-10 15:15 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [???????????????????????????? シ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%20%E3%82%B7) $732 $8,833 12.06x 2026-11-10 15:14 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=bumblebee-joker) [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $732 $1,607 2.20x 2026-11-11 19:39 UTC [M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-factory-new) Hidden $728 $5.74 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC [SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) Hidden $728 $94.74 0.13x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC [SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) Hidden $728 $94.74 0.13x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC [AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $728 $54.34 0.07x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC [P90 | Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) Hidden $728 $96.47 0.13x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $728 $1,583 2.17x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC [M4A4 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $732 $101 0.14x 2026-11-11 19:25 UTC [Nova | Hyper Beast weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $732 $13.41 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:24 UTC [M4A4 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $728 $104 0.14x 2026-11-11 19:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $8,984 (12.25x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.70 on average: an expected loss of $11.30 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt