---
title: "BUMBLEBEE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "BUMBLEBEE ($22.34) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 115 items with odds, observed 87.71% over 18.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bumblebee
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [BUMBLEBEE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bumblebee)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · BUMBLEBEE

A case on Key-Drop (BESTSELLERS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bumblebee?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bumblebee?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bumblebee) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bumblebee?window=all)

Price · $22.34

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $19.55 from 115 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.71% · 18.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 7.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.63% ±11.03 2,355 openings

7 days · 88.28% ±4.30 15.2K openings

30 days · 87.71% ±3.91 18.8K openings

since tracking started · 87.71% ±3.91 18.8K openings

77.0% 88.8% 100.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bumblebee?window=24h) | 2,355 | 88.63% ±11.0 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bumblebee?window=7d) | 15.2K | 88.28% ±4.30 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bumblebee) | 18.8K | 87.71% ±3.91 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/bumblebee?window=all) | 18.8K | 87.71% ±3.91 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 115 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $8,833 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $6,040 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $4,012 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $3,775 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $1,685 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $1,572 | 0.3% | 3 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,000 | $1,417 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,178 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 16,667 | $921 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.77× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 14,286 | $787 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.52× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 11,111 | $609 | 0.3% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.77× |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $559 | 0.3% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.60× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 5,263 | $276 | 0.3% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.12× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,111 | $154 | 0.1% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,882 | $148 | 0.1% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $147 | 0.1% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.60× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11,111 | $146 | 0.1% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.18× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $144 | 0.1% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $140 | 0.1% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.60× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $137 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $137 | 0.1% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.33× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $136 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,692 | $136 | 0.1% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,263 | $136 | 0.1% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.40× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 9,091 | $133 | 0.1% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $133 | 0.1% | 1 | 3.8 | 0.27× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 7,143 | $131 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $130 | 0.1% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.14× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $128 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 2,381 | $122 | 0.3% | 6 | 7.9 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,326 | $119 | 0.3% | 7 | 8.1 | 0.87× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 2,273 | $115 | 0.3% | 15 | 8.3 | 1.81× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 2,128 | $110 | 0.3% | 8 | 8.8 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,556 | $108 | 0.1% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 1 in 2,083 | $107 | 0.3% | 9 | 9.0 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-well-worn) | 1 in 5,263 | $104 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,041 | $104 | 0.3% | 6 | 9.2 | 0.65× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 1,961 | $101 | 0.3% | 5 | 9.6 | 0.52× |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 1,887 | $96.47 | 0.3% | 13 | 10.0 | 1.30× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $71.39 | 6.0% | 334 | 306.8 | 1.09× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-minimal-wear) | 1 in 114 | $62.50 | 2.8% | 156 | 164.7 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49 | $56.68 | 6.0% | 349 | 386.5 | 0.90× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 275 | $56.08 | 1.0% | 40 | 68.4 | 0.58× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-field-tested) | 1 in 118 | $55.32 | 2.4% | 155 | 159.2 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $53.97 | 4.5% | 300 | 307.4 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $53.21 | 4.5% | 327 | 311.7 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 145 | $42.18 | 1.5% | 97 | 129.9 | 0.75× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 141 | $41.68 | 1.5% | 93 | 132.9 | 0.70× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 139 | $41.37 | 1.5% | 96 | 135.0 | 0.71× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 183 | $39.83 | 1.1% | 75 | 102.8 | 0.73× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 91 | $38.98 | 2.2% | 162 | 206.2 | 0.79× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 161 | $37.37 | 1.2% | 109 | 116.7 | 0.93× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 181 | $36.98 | 1.0% | 156 | 104.2 | 1.50× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $36.63 | 2.3% | 200 | 233.5 | 0.86× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 275 | $35.79 | 0.7% | 54 | 68.2 | 0.79× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $31.14 | 4.5% | 175 | 536.7 | 0.33× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $30.98 | 1.8% | 90 | 212.3 | 0.42× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $24.70 | 2.2% | 149 | 325.6 | 0.46× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $24.06 | 3.1% | 173 | 479.8 | 0.36× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $23.87 | 3.2% | 179 | 487.5 | 0.37× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $22.62 | 5.5% | 348 | 888.1 | 0.39× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $22.06 | 3.1% | 316 | 520.8 | 0.61× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $20.70 | 8.0% | 1,477 | 1422.0 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $20.29 | 2.1% | 435 | 375.6 | 1.16× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $19.44 | 2.2% | 419 | 408.3 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $18.51 | 2.3% | 298 | 451.4 | 0.66× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $17.89 | 2.3% | 321 | 482.0 | 0.67× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 1 in 336 | $17.55 | 0.3% | 32 | 56.0 | 0.57× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 412 | $17.53 | 0.2% | 276 | 45.7 | 6.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 231 | $16.90 | 0.4% | 130 | 81.2 | 1.60× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 291 | $15.79 | 0.3% | 43 | 64.7 | 0.66× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 265 | $14.90 | 0.3% | 37 | 71.1 | 0.52× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 207 | $14.90 | 0.4% | 62 | 91.0 | 0.68× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 263 | $14.83 | 0.3% | 54 | 71.4 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 254 | $14.53 | 0.3% | 56 | 73.9 | 0.76× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-battle-scarred) | 1 in 198 | $14.48 | 0.4% | 55 | 95.1 | 0.58× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-well-worn) | 1 in 186 | $13.92 | 0.4% | 63 | 101.3 | 0.62× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-well-worn) | 1 in 207 | $12.97 | 0.3% | 46 | 90.8 | 0.51× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $12.71 | 0.3% | 69 | 84.6 | 0.82× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-factory-new) | 1 in 1,316 | $12.31 | 0.0% | 14 | 14.3 | 0.98× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 228 | $12.09 | 0.3% | 59 | 82.5 | 0.71× |
| [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 730 | $11.90 | 0.1% | 28 | 25.8 | 1.09× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 205 | $11.31 | 0.3% | 51 | 91.7 | 0.56× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 191 | $10.84 | 0.3% | 53 | 98.3 | 0.54× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 151 | $10.65 | 0.4% | 83 | 124.5 | 0.67× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 118 | $9.00 | 0.4% | 115 | 158.7 | 0.72× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $8.68 | 0.4% | 128 | 168.3 | 0.76× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 690 | $8.53 | 0.1% | 19 | 27.3 | 0.70× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 373 | $8.46 | 0.1% | 43 | 50.4 | 0.85× |
| [AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-factory-new) | 1 in 680 | $7.91 | 0.1% | 23 | 27.6 | 0.83× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 294 | $6.20 | 0.1% | 51 | 63.9 | 0.80× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-factory-new) | 1 in 361 | $5.74 | 0.1% | 42 | 52.1 | 0.81× |
| [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 172 | $4.82 | 0.1% | 72 | 109.0 | 0.66× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $4.76 | 0.5% | 242 | 406.1 | 0.60× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 138 | $4.53 | 0.2% | 80 | 136.7 | 0.59× |
| [AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-minimal-wear) | 1 in 228 | $3.99 | 0.1% | 55 | 82.3 | 0.67× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-well-worn) | 1 in 144 | $3.97 | 0.1% | 78 | 130.3 | 0.60× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 186 | $3.59 | 0.1% | 87 | 101.1 | 0.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-well-worn) | 1 in 90 | $3.47 | 0.2% | 148 | 209.4 | 0.71× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-battle-scarred) | 1 in 83 | $3.31 | 0.2% | 161 | 225.8 | 0.71× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 147 | $3.27 | 0.1% | 104 | 128.0 | 0.81× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 131 | $3.00 | 0.1% | 97 | 143.8 | 0.67× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $2.58 | 0.2% | 176 | 259.6 | 0.68× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $2.48 | 0.2% | 174 | 276.5 | 0.63× |
| [P90 \| Facility Negative (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-facility-negative-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $2.14 | 0.5% | 999 | 901.5 | 1.11× |
| [AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-well-worn) | 1 in 83 | $2.11 | 0.1% | 166 | 227.7 | 0.73× |
| [AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $2.04 | 0.1% | 200 | 240.3 | 0.83× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-well-worn) | 1 in 59 | $1.84 | 0.2% | 213 | 320.9 | 0.66× |
| [AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $1.81 | 0.1% | 226 | 291.0 | 0.78× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $1.59 | 0.2% | 286 | 396.9 | 0.72× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $1.59 | 0.2% | 261 | 396.9 | 0.66× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $1.54 | 0.2% | 296 | 426.6 | 0.69× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $1.37 | 0.2% | 363 | 471.3 | 0.77× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $1.36 | 0.2% | 322 | 476.8 | 0.68× |
| [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.31 | 0.3% | 533 | 873.8 | 0.61× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/bumblebee`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $22.34 $3,775 169.0x 2026-11-10 22:12 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $22.34 $3,614 161.8x 2026-11-10 00:50 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [\[420\]\_sweetweed](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%5B420%5D_sweetweed) $22.34 $1,601 71.68x 2026-11-09 21:38 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [\[420\]\_sweetweed](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%5B420%5D_sweetweed) $22.34 $1,601 71.68x 2026-11-09 21:37 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $22.34 $1,601 71.68x 2026-11-09 17:16 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) [paquito](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/paquito) $22.34 $908 40.65x 2026-11-09 22:15 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) [paquito](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/paquito) $22.34 $908 40.65x 2026-11-09 22:14 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [TUSMUERTOS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/TUSMUERTOS) $22.34 $797 35.65x 2026-11-02 22:50 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [TUSMUERTOS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/TUSMUERTOS) $22.34 $797 35.65x 2026-11-02 22:48 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [p3x](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/p3x) $22.34 $617 27.62x 2026-11-08 19:28 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=bumblebee)

[AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) [kaina](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kaina) $22.34 $53.21 2.38x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) [kaina](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kaina) $22.34 $49.30 2.21x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[MP7 | Nemesis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.34 $9.36 0.42x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-facility-negative-factory-new) Hidden $22.34 $2.14 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[AK-47 | Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) Hidden $22.34 $18.15 0.81x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[P250 | Wingshot weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot) [Equis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Equis) $22.34 $2.00 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[AUG | Eye of Zapems weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems) [Equis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Equis) $22.34 $2.35 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[MP7 | Nemesis weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis) [Equis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Equis) $22.34 $16.75 0.75x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[AUG | Eye of Zapems weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems) [Equis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Equis) $22.34 $2.35 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[MP7 | Nemesis weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis) [Equis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Equis) $22.34 $16.75 0.75x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $22.34 | 87.50% | 115 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $22.34 | 87.30% | 115 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $22.34 | 87.54% | 115 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $22.34 | 87.64% | 115 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $22.34 | 87.50% | 115 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $22.34 | 87.72% | 115 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $22.34 | 87.74% | 115 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $22.34 | 87.59% | 115 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $22.34 | 87.68% | 115 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $22.34 | 87.57% | 115 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $22.34 | 87.33% | 115 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $22.34 | 87.34% | 115 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $22.34 | 87.47% | 115 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $22.34 | 87.63% | 115 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $22.34 | 87.71% | 115 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $22.34 | 87.21% | 115 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $22.34 | 87.11% | 115 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 15.0% contraband 0.0% classified 35.9% restricted 3.4% rare 0.0% red 0.8% uncommon 3.1% Ancient 0.5% pink 5.3% #d32ee6 2.6% Legendary 0.4% #8847ff 4.1% violet 20.2% Mythical 3.8% blue 4.8% best hit $3,775 (169.0x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt