--- title: "BUTTERFLY JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "BUTTERFLY JOKER ($1,505.38) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 85.15% over 268 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/butterfly-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T19:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [BUTTERFLY JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/butterfly-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · BUTTERFLY JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/butterfly-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/butterfly-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/butterfly-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/butterfly-joker?window=all) Price · $1,505.38 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 85.15% · 268 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 69 openings · below min 7 days · 233 openings · below min 30 days · 268 openings · below min since tracking started · 268 openings · below min 72.0% 93.3% 114.5% **Small sample.** 268 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/butterfly-joker?window=24h) | 69 | 93.20% ±20.5 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/butterfly-joker?window=7d) | 233 | 89.74% ±10.1 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/butterfly-joker) | 268 | 85.15% ±9.00 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/butterfly-joker?window=all) | 268 | 85.15% ±9.00 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $1,486 $5,581 3.76x 2026-11-07 22:16 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $1,486 $5,581 3.76x 2026-11-07 22:11 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $1,486 $5,581 3.76x 2026-11-07 19:10 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [AnoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AnoN) $1,466 $5,414 3.69x 2026-11-11 02:31 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $1,463 $5,414 3.70x 2026-11-11 02:31 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $1,463 $5,414 3.70x 2026-11-11 02:31 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [AnoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AnoN) $1,463 $5,414 3.70x 2026-11-11 02:31 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $1,486 $3,895 2.62x 2026-11-08 01:25 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $1,486 $3,895 2.62x 2026-11-07 22:16 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $1,486 $3,895 2.62x 2026-11-07 22:16 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=butterfly-joker) [AWP | Oni Taiji weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $1,466 $378 0.26x 2026-11-11 19:28 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $1,466 $2,170 1.48x 2026-11-11 19:28 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $1,466 $3,091 2.11x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-forest-ddpat) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $1,466 $559 0.38x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) [AnoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AnoN) $1,466 $226 0.15x 2026-11-11 02:32 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate) [AnoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AnoN) $1,466 $815 0.56x 2026-11-11 02:32 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore) [AnoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AnoN) $1,466 $818 0.56x 2026-11-11 02:32 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh) [AnoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AnoN) $1,466 $556 0.38x 2026-11-11 02:32 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest) [AnoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AnoN) $1,466 $568 0.39x 2026-11-11 02:32 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel) [AnoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AnoN) $1,466 $1,146 0.78x 2026-11-11 02:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $5,581 (3.76x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.15 on average: an expected loss of $14.85 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt