---
title: "BUTTERFLY case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "BUTTERFLY ($742.50) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 97 items with odds, observed 84.67% over 1,022 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/butterfly
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [BUTTERFLY](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/butterfly)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · BUTTERFLY

A case on Key-Drop (PREMIUM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/butterfly?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/butterfly?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/butterfly) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/butterfly?window=all)

Price · $742.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $649.71 from 97 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.67% · 1,022 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.07% ±8.69 169 openings

7 days · 85.71% ±3.78 909 openings

30 days · 84.67% ±3.57 1,022 openings

since tracking started · 84.67% ±3.57 1,022 openings

76.5% 86.0% 95.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/butterfly?window=24h) | 169 | 86.07% ±8.69 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/butterfly?window=7d) | 909 | 85.71% ±3.78 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/butterfly) | 1,022 | 84.67% ±3.57 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/butterfly?window=all) | 1,022 | 84.67% ±3.57 | −1.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 97 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,022 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,414 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 5,000 | $3,875 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 5,000 | $3,100 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 345 | $2,751 | 1.2% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 345 | $2,737 | 1.2% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.34× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 333 | $2,702 | 1.2% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.33× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 286 | $2,256 | 1.2% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.68× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 270 | $2,162 | 1.2% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.06× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 263 | $2,118 | 1.2% | 1 | 3.9 | 0.26× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,921 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 227 | $1,811 | 1.2% | 0 | 4.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $1,697 | 4.2% | 19 | 16.2 | 1.17× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 357 | $1,616 | 0.7% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.35× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 169 | $1,566 | 1.4% | 4 | 6.0 | 0.66× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 156 | $1,512 | 1.5% | 2 | 6.5 | 0.31× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 303 | $1,370 | 0.7% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.30× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 49 | $1,328 | 4.1% | 20 | 20.7 | 0.96× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 345 | $1,227 | 0.5% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.01× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 238 | $1,124 | 0.7% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.70× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 263 | $1,086 | 0.6% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 192 | $1,073 | 0.9% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.94× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 323 | $1,064 | 0.5% | 5 | 3.2 | 1.58× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $1,033 | 1.0% | 4 | 6.6 | 0.60× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 161 | $987 | 0.9% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 217 | $941 | 0.7% | 2 | 4.7 | 0.43× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 132 | $936 | 1.1% | 6 | 7.8 | 0.77× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 127 | $933 | 1.1% | 3 | 8.1 | 0.37× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 127 | $916 | 1.1% | 8 | 8.1 | 0.99× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 182 | $906 | 0.8% | 1 | 5.6 | 0.18× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 135 | $900 | 1.0% | 5 | 7.6 | 0.66× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $877 | 1.2% | 8 | 9.2 | 0.87× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 154 | $876 | 0.9% | 3 | 6.6 | 0.45× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 227 | $873 | 0.6% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.89× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 114 | $867 | 1.2% | 7 | 9.0 | 0.78× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $867 | 0.8% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.82× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 147 | $858 | 0.9% | 7 | 6.9 | 1.01× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 159 | $848 | 0.8% | 1 | 6.4 | 0.16× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $826 | 0.7% | 2 | 5.6 | 0.36× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 189 | $813 | 0.7% | 2 | 5.4 | 0.37× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 185 | $810 | 0.7% | 8 | 5.5 | 1.45× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 192 | $806 | 0.6% | 2 | 5.3 | 0.38× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $787 | 0.8% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.12× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $782 | 0.6% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.98× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 164 | $759 | 0.7% | 3 | 6.2 | 0.48× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 159 | $745 | 0.7% | 1 | 6.4 | 0.16× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 135 | $735 | 0.8% | 4 | 7.6 | 0.53× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 141 | $731 | 0.8% | 3 | 7.3 | 0.41× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 94 | $727 | 1.2% | 4 | 10.8 | 0.37× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $720 | 1.0% | 5 | 8.9 | 0.56× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $714 | 0.8% | 4 | 7.9 | 0.51× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 130 | $714 | 0.8% | 3 | 7.9 | 0.38× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $712 | 0.8% | 10 | 7.9 | 1.27× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 104 | $711 | 1.0% | 9 | 9.8 | 0.92× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 133 | $708 | 0.8% | 9 | 7.7 | 1.17× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 147 | $707 | 0.7% | 2 | 6.9 | 0.29× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 109 | $696 | 1.0% | 10 | 9.4 | 1.06× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 59 | $689 | 1.8% | 22 | 17.4 | 1.27× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 119 | $678 | 0.9% | 6 | 8.6 | 0.70× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $671 | 0.8% | 10 | 8.2 | 1.22× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 135 | $671 | 0.8% | 3 | 7.6 | 0.40× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $664 | 0.8% | 2 | 8.3 | 0.24× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $662 | 0.8% | 8 | 7.7 | 1.04× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 93 | $659 | 1.1% | 7 | 11.0 | 0.63× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-well-worn) | 1 in 106 | $659 | 1.0% | 9 | 9.6 | 0.94× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 128 | $650 | 0.8% | 5 | 8.0 | 0.63× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $646 | 1.9% | 10 | 19.3 | 0.52× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 101 | $636 | 1.0% | 4 | 10.1 | 0.40× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-battle-scarred) | 1 in 101 | $636 | 1.0% | 10 | 10.1 | 0.99× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 93 | $633 | 1.0% | 6 | 10.9 | 0.55× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 118 | $622 | 0.8% | 5 | 8.7 | 0.58× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 101 | $586 | 0.9% | 2 | 10.1 | 0.20× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 101 | $585 | 0.9% | 8 | 10.1 | 0.79× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-urban-masked-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $582 | 0.9% | 5 | 10.2 | 0.49× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $574 | 0.8% | 5 | 9.7 | 0.51× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 97 | $574 | 0.9% | 5 | 10.5 | 0.47× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-well-worn) | 1 in 97 | $573 | 0.9% | 8 | 10.5 | 0.76× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 96 | $567 | 0.9% | 11 | 10.6 | 1.03× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 102 | $563 | 0.8% | 4 | 10.0 | 0.40× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 102 | $562 | 0.8% | 5 | 10.0 | 0.50× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 99 | $555 | 0.9% | 7 | 10.3 | 0.68× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $555 | 0.9% | 9 | 10.2 | 0.88× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 99 | $552 | 0.9% | 8 | 10.3 | 0.78× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 97 | $549 | 0.9% | 9 | 10.5 | 0.85× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-well-worn) | 1 in 95 | $545 | 0.9% | 8 | 10.7 | 0.75× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 95 | $543 | 0.9% | 15 | 10.7 | 1.40× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $543 | 0.9% | 10 | 10.6 | 0.94× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 95 | $541 | 0.9% | 6 | 10.7 | 0.56× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-battle-scarred) | 1 in 143 | $525 | 0.6% | 5 | 7.2 | 0.70× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $464 | 1.2% | 16 | 16.9 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $396 | 3.0% | 59 | 50.2 | 1.18× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $385 | 0.7% | 13 | 11.8 | 1.11× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-well-worn) | 1 in 63 | $316 | 0.8% | 12 | 16.1 | 0.74× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $289 | 2.6% | 63 | 60.6 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $280 | 0.8% | 16 | 19.6 | 0.82× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $273 | 1.6% | 32 | 39.4 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $265 | 2.5% | 66 | 63.9 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $219 | 2.3% | 74 | 71.2 | 1.04× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/butterfly`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [CSR\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CSR*-76561198013999805) $743 $3,991 5.38x 2026-11-05 19:48 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $743 $2,765 3.72x 2026-11-09 22:58 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $743 $2,765 3.72x 2026-11-09 10:04 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $743 $2,753 3.71x 2026-11-09 10:04 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $743 $2,702 3.64x 2026-11-11 01:12 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $743 $2,380 3.21x 2026-11-05 08:37 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $743 $2,380 3.21x 2026-11-05 08:37 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $743 $2,364 3.18x 2026-11-05 18:20 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $743 $2,364 3.18x 2026-11-05 18:20 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [HEADSHOT V NOGU](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/HEADSHOT%20V%20NOGU) $743 $2,361 3.18x 2026-11-07 12:37 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=butterfly)

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore) [✓](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%93) $743 $765 1.03x 2026-11-11 10:24 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-forest-ddpat) [aLx 乡](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/aLx%20%E4%B9%A1) $743 $555 0.75x 2026-11-11 09:38 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest) [Pro MMA Fighter](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pro%20MMA%20Fighter) $743 $562 0.76x 2026-11-11 03:53 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-well-worn) [Pro MMA Fighter](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pro%20MMA%20Fighter) $743 $545 0.73x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) Hidden $743 $385 0.52x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $743 $720 0.97x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC

[AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) Hidden $743 $396 0.53x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $743 $646 0.87x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) Hidden $743 $711 0.96x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC

[AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) [Lupix](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Lupix) $743 $396 0.53x 2026-11-11 03:28 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $743 | 87.50% | 97 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $743 | 87.87% | 97 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $743 | 87.77% | 97 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $743 | 87.65% | 97 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $743 | 87.86% | 97 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $743 | 87.85% | 97 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $743 | 87.69% | 97 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $743 | 87.85% | 97 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $743 | 87.74% | 97 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $743 | 87.88% | 97 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $743 | 87.84% | 97 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $743 | 87.97% | 97 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $743 | 87.89% | 97 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $743 | 87.71% | 97 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $743 | 87.65% | 97 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $743 | 87.80% | 97 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $743 | 87.83% | 97 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 60.8% gold 33.0% red 6.3% best hit $3,991 (5.38x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt