---
title: "CACHORRO case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "CACHORRO ($29.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 43 items with odds, observed 79.47% over 1,393 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cachorro
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [CACHORRO](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cachorro)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · CACHORRO

A case on Key-Drop (YOUTUBERS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cachorro?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cachorro?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cachorro) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cachorro?window=all)

Price · $29.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $25.38 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.47% · 1,393 openings, odds method

Variance · 13.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.59% ±47.90 227 openings

7 days · 79.93% ±22.05 1,224 openings

30 days · 79.47% ±20.77 1,393 openings

since tracking started · 79.47% ±20.77 1,393 openings

36.0% 84.5% 133.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cachorro?window=24h) | 227 | 84.59% ±47.9 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cachorro?window=7d) | 1,224 | 79.93% ±22.0 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cachorro) | 1,393 | 79.47% ±20.8 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cachorro?window=all) | 1,393 | 79.47% ±20.8 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,393 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $8,833 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 7,692 | $4,046 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 6,667 | $3,645 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,174 | $1,119 | 2.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 1,000 | $510 | 2.0% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 971 | $495 | 2.0% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,724 | $348 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 746 | $229 | 1.2% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.61× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 625 | $153 | 1.0% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.35× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 556 | $145 | 1.0% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.60× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,818 | $126 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 980 | $114 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $102 | 3.1% | 2 | 10.7 | 0.19× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 126 | $101 | 3.1% | 6 | 11.0 | 0.54× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-well-worn) | 1 in 124 | $100 | 3.2% | 6 | 11.2 | 0.53× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 160 | $83.03 | 2.0% | 4 | 8.7 | 0.46× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 168 | $70.80 | 1.7% | 4 | 8.3 | 0.48× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 121 | $67.48 | 2.2% | 8 | 11.5 | 0.70× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 180 | $65.37 | 1.4% | 4 | 7.7 | 0.52× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $64.58 | 2.3% | 6 | 12.5 | 0.48× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 95 | $59.71 | 2.5% | 17 | 14.7 | 1.16× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 122 | $54.81 | 1.8% | 6 | 11.4 | 0.53× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 99 | $54.24 | 2.2% | 7 | 14.1 | 0.50× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 146 | $54.19 | 1.5% | 11 | 9.5 | 1.16× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 123 | $53.97 | 1.7% | 5 | 11.4 | 0.44× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 116 | $53.32 | 1.8% | 8 | 12.0 | 0.66× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 95 | $53.21 | 2.2% | 12 | 14.6 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 106 | $50.22 | 1.9% | 8 | 13.1 | 0.61× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 99 | $48.53 | 1.9% | 8 | 14.0 | 0.57× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 106 | $46.10 | 1.7% | 15 | 13.1 | 1.14× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 78 | $43.82 | 2.2% | 9 | 17.8 | 0.51× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $42.85 | 2.7% | 18 | 21.9 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $42.81 | 3.2% | 16 | 26.0 | 0.61× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $41.80 | 3.2% | 16 | 27.3 | 0.59× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $40.70 | 2.8% | 23 | 24.3 | 0.95× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $39.59 | 3.3% | 22 | 29.0 | 0.76× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $38.61 | 3.3% | 33 | 30.5 | 1.08× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $37.58 | 3.4% | 23 | 32.2 | 0.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $37.09 | 3.6% | 21 | 34.7 | 0.61× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $23.44 | 7.0% | 98 | 105.0 | 0.93× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) | 12.6% | $8.40 | 4.2% | 187 | 174.9 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 12.9% | $7.93 | 4.0% | 163 | 180.0 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-battle-scarred) | 33.5% | $1.18 | 1.6% | 477 | 466.2 | 1.02× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/cachorro`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) [land1n](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/land1n) $29.00 $1,118 38.57x 2026-11-10 00:02 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [Rei$zin](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Rei%24zin) $29.00 $509 17.56x 2026-11-07 09:15 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=cachorro)

[M4A1-S | Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) [ace](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ace) $29.00 $8.40 0.29x 2026-11-10 21:13 UTC

[M4A1-S | Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) [ace](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ace) $29.00 $8.40 0.29x 2026-11-10 21:12 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-battle-scarred) Hidden $29.00 $1.18 0.04x 2026-11-10 21:12 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) Hidden $29.00 $42.85 1.48x 2026-11-10 21:12 UTC

[M4A4 | In Living Color (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-well-worn) Hidden $29.00 $39.59 1.37x 2026-11-10 21:12 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) Hidden $29.00 $7.93 0.27x 2026-11-10 21:12 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.00 $54.19 1.87x 2026-11-10 21:12 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-battle-scarred) [Rei$zin](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Rei%24zin) $29.00 $1.18 0.04x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-battle-scarred) [Rei$zin](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Rei%24zin) $29.00 $1.18 0.04x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC

[M4A4 | In Living Color weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color) [Rei$zin](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Rei%24zin) $29.00 $38.56 1.33x 2026-11-10 20:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $29.00 | 87.50% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $29.00 | 87.69% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $29.00 | 87.93% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $29.00 | 87.13% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $29.00 | 87.36% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $29.00 | 87.60% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $29.00 | 87.49% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $29.00 | 87.97% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $29.00 | 87.97% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $29.00 | 87.27% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $29.00 | 87.37% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $29.00 | 87.74% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $29.00 | 87.21% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $29.00 | 88.01% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $29.00 | 87.45% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $29.00 | 87.00% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $29.00 | 87.99% | 43 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $29.00 | 87.93% | 43 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 19.8% legendary 0.0% Ancient 4.4% Covert 0.9% red 8.3% classified 20.1% #d32ce6 12.9% violet 33.5% best hit $1,118 (38.57x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt