---
title: "CALYPSO case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "CALYPSO ($30.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 29 items with odds, observed 86.18% over 1,310 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/calypso
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:23Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [CALYPSO](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/calypso)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · CALYPSO

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/calypso?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/calypso?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/calypso) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/calypso?window=all)

Price · $30.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $26.25 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.18% · 1,310 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80.50% ±31.91 122 openings

7 days · 84.29% ±10.48 1,144 openings

30 days · 86.18% ±9.80 1,310 openings

since tracking started · 86.18% ±9.80 1,310 openings

48.0% 80.5% 113.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/calypso?window=24h) | 122 | 80.50% ±31.9 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/calypso?window=7d) | 1,144 | 84.29% ±10.5 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/calypso) | 1,310 | 86.18% ±9.80 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/calypso?window=all) | 1,310 | 86.18% ±9.80 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,310 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,556 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 256 | $423 | 6.3% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 210 | $346 | 6.3% | 5 | 6.2 | 0.80× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) | 1 in 140 | $231 | 6.3% | 12 | 9.4 | 1.28× |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $148 | 6.3% | 11 | 14.6 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $136 | 6.3% | 19 | 15.9 | 1.20× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 74 | $122 | 6.3% | 21 | 17.7 | 1.19× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 388 | $115 | 1.1% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 188 | $106 | 2.1% | 4 | 7.0 | 0.57× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $103 | 6.3% | 21 | 20.9 | 1.01× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $93.74 | 6.3% | 27 | 23.0 | 1.17× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 277 | $82.88 | 1.1% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.85× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 188 | $79.73 | 1.6% | 7 | 7.0 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 161 | $73.69 | 1.7% | 6 | 8.1 | 0.74× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 151 | $71.47 | 1.8% | 7 | 8.7 | 0.81× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 159 | $70.17 | 1.7% | 4 | 8.3 | 0.48× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 94 | $67.63 | 2.7% | 8 | 13.9 | 0.57× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 138 | $58.45 | 1.6% | 9 | 9.5 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $55.78 | 1.7% | 8 | 10.5 | 0.77× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $54.96 | 4.1% | 13 | 25.8 | 0.50× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $53.51 | 2.2% | 12 | 14.2 | 0.85× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $52.30 | 3.5% | 12 | 23.3 | 0.52× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 107 | $51.61 | 1.8% | 8 | 12.2 | 0.66× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 78 | $49.30 | 2.4% | 12 | 16.7 | 0.72× |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $41.80 | 6.3% | 41 | 51.6 | 0.79× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $34.85 | 2.5% | 16 | 25.1 | 0.64× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $26.98 | 5.1% | 83 | 65.1 | 1.27× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $23.77 | 2.9% | 42 | 41.8 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-field-tested) | 64.1% | $0.38 | 0.9% | 832 | 840.3 | 0.99× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/calypso`, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=calypso)

[AWP | Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-field-tested) [denis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/denis) $30.00 $0.38 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:22 UTC

[AWP | Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-field-tested) [denis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/denis) $30.00 $0.38 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:19 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) [denis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/denis) $30.00 $136 4.54x 2026-11-11 15:19 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach) [denis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/denis) $30.00 $57.54 1.92x 2026-11-11 14:39 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike) [denis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/denis) $30.00 $60.21 2.01x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

[M4A4 | Cyber Security weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security) [ゼロツー](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E3%82%BC%E3%83%AD%E3%83%84%E3%83%BC) $30.00 $27.79 0.93x 2026-11-11 10:58 UTC

[M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) [ゼロツー](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E3%82%BC%E3%83%AD%E3%83%84%E3%83%BC) $30.00 $23.77 0.79x 2026-11-11 10:58 UTC

[AWP | Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-field-tested) Hidden $30.00 $0.38 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:58 UTC

[AWP | Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-field-tested) Hidden $30.00 $0.38 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:58 UTC

[AWP | Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-field-tested) Hidden $30.00 $0.38 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:58 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $30.00 | 87.50% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $30.00 | 87.50% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $30.00 | 87.40% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $30.00 | 87.80% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $30.00 | 87.50% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $30.00 | 87.64% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $30.00 | 87.52% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $30.00 | 87.20% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $30.00 | 87.28% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $30.00 | 87.23% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $30.00 | 87.42% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $30.00 | 87.15% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $30.00 | 87.83% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $30.00 | 87.67% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $30.00 | 87.35% | 29 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $30.00 | 87.67% | 29 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $30.00 | 87.35% | 29 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $30.00 | 87.44% | 29 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $30.00 | 87.77% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 10.3% red 3.3% restricted 6.1% classified 10.5% extraordinary 1.8% mil spec 3.9% Mil Spec 64.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt