---
title: "CAPITAL case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "CAPITAL ($3.16) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 80.07% over 6,732 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/capital
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:13Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [CAPITAL](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/capital)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · CAPITAL

A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/capital?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/capital?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/capital) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/capital?window=all)

Price · $3.16

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $2.76 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.07% · 6,732 openings, odds method

Variance · 40.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 108 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 97.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 94.30% ±50.67 620 openings

7 days · 80.84% ±17.19 5,413 openings

30 days · 80.07% ±15.45 6,732 openings

since tracking started · 80.07% ±15.45 6,732 openings

43.0% 94.3% 145.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/capital?window=24h) | 620 | 94.30% ±50.7 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/capital?window=7d) | 5,413 | 80.84% ±17.2 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/capital) | 6,732 | 80.07% ±15.4 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/capital?window=all) | 6,732 | 80.07% ±15.4 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,757 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $787 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 885 | $280 | 11.5% | 5 | 7.6 | 0.65× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 662 | $209 | 11.4% | 13 | 10.2 | 1.27× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 538 | $170 | 11.4% | 9 | 12.6 | 0.72× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 490 | $154 | 11.4% | 15 | 13.8 | 1.09× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 377 | $119 | 11.4% | 15 | 17.9 | 0.84× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 257 | $81.04 | 11.4% | 31 | 26.3 | 1.18× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-field-tested) | 1 in 176 | $55.32 | 11.4% | 24 | 38.4 | 0.62× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $32.83 | 11.4% | 57 | 64.7 | 0.88× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.59 | 1.0% | 410 | 309.5 | 1.32× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.53 | 1.0% | 466 | 342.6 | 1.36× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.38 | 0.8% | 494 | 404.6 | 1.22× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-calligraffiti-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.36 | 0.8% | 538 | 415.7 | 1.29× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.35 | 0.8% | 512 | 421.6 | 1.21× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.33 | 0.8% | 557 | 434.2 | 1.28× |
| [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-field-tested) | 15.1% | $0.06 | 0.3% | 1,025 | 1018.1 | 1.01× |
| [FAMAS \| Half Sleeve (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-half-sleeve-field-tested) | 21.3% | $0.03 | 0.2% | 1,144 | 1439.8 | 0.79× |
| [SSG 08 \| Tiger Tear (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tiger-tear-field-tested) | 26.3% | $0.02 | 0.2% | 1,442 | 1778.6 | 0.81× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/capital`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) Hidden $3.16 $287 90.84x 2026-11-04 14:30 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) Hidden $3.16 $281 89.05x 2026-11-08 09:32 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) [lenoxx](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/lenoxx) $3.16 $281 88.97x 2026-11-05 11:31 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) [lenoxx](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/lenoxx) $3.16 $281 88.97x 2026-11-05 11:30 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) [THE K1NG](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/THE%20K1NG) $3.16 $280 88.69x 2026-11-10 19:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) Hidden $3.16 $231 73.18x 2026-11-03 05:54 UTC

[M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) Hidden $3.16 $223 70.69x 2026-11-05 11:04 UTC

[M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) Hidden $3.16 $222 70.37x 2026-11-04 00:31 UTC

[M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) [fer\_otake](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/fer_otake) $3.16 $221 69.80x 2026-11-06 01:36 UTC

[M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) [fer\_otake](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/fer_otake) $3.16 $221 69.80x 2026-11-06 01:36 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=capital)

[AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-field-tested) [✯FAST7R✯](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%AFFAST7R%E2%9C%AF) $3.16 $0.06 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-field-tested) [✯FAST7R✯](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%AFFAST7R%E2%9C%AF) $3.16 $0.06 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-field-tested) [✯FAST7R✯](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%AFFAST7R%E2%9C%AF) $3.16 $0.06 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[Glock-18 | Wraiths (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-field-tested) [✯FAST7R✯](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%AFFAST7R%E2%9C%AF) $3.16 $0.53 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tiger-tear-field-tested) [✯FAST7R✯](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%AFFAST7R%E2%9C%AF) $3.16 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-field-tested) [✯FAST7R✯](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%AFFAST7R%E2%9C%AF) $3.16 $0.06 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[FAMAS | Half Sleeve (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-half-sleeve-field-tested) [✯FAST7R✯](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%AFFAST7R%E2%9C%AF) $3.16 $0.03 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-calligraffiti-field-tested) [✯FAST7R✯](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%AFFAST7R%E2%9C%AF) $3.16 $0.36 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[FAMAS | Half Sleeve (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-half-sleeve-field-tested) [✯FAST7R✯](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%AFFAST7R%E2%9C%AF) $3.16 $0.03 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-field-tested) [✯FAST7R✯](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%AFFAST7R%E2%9C%AF) $3.16 $0.33 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $3.16 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $3.16 | 87.93% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $3.16 | 87.11% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $3.16 | 87.13% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $3.16 | 87.54% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.16 | 87.53% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $3.16 | 86.79% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $3.16 | 87.83% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $3.16 | 87.68% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $3.16 | 87.64% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $3.16 | 87.31% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $3.16 | 87.15% | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $3.16 | 87.49% | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $3.16 | 87.58% | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $3.16 | 87.85% | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $3.16 | 86.81% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.16 | 87.71% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed rare 0.0% covert 1.3% uncommon 0.6% red 1.0% mil spec 4.6% #4b69ff 11.2% Mil Spec 6.0% blue 6.2% light blue 27.7% Uncommon 41.4% best hit $287 (90.84x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt