--- title: "CERES JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "CERES JOKER ($951.06) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 92.30% over 48 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ceres-joker rendered: 2026-11-12T06:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [CERES JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ceres-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · CERES JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ceres-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ceres-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ceres-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ceres-joker?window=all) Price · $951.06 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 92.30% · 48 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 28 openings · below min 30 days · 48 openings · below min since tracking started · 48 openings · below min -0.5% 240.3% 481.0% **Small sample.** 48 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ceres-joker?window=24h) | 4 | 168.88% ±311.6 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ceres-joker?window=7d) | 28 | 108.75% ±73.6 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ceres-joker) | 48 | 92.30% ±50.4 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ceres-joker?window=all) | 48 | 92.30% ±50.4 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) [G1G0 onte tap](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/G1G0%20onte%20tap) $936 $6,040 6.46x 2026-11-11 17:19 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $936 $6,040 6.46x 2026-11-11 04:46 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $951 $6,040 6.35x 2026-11-03 00:46 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $943 $6,040 6.40x 2026-11-05 19:27 UTC [★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [Mopo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Mopo) $943 $2,081 2.21x 2026-11-05 19:29 UTC [★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [Mopo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Mopo) $943 $2,081 2.21x 2026-11-05 19:27 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $951 $1,705 1.79x 2026-11-03 00:46 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [Galnov](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Galnov) $945 $1,704 1.80x 2026-11-04 16:20 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [Galnov](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Galnov) $945 $1,704 1.80x 2026-11-04 16:19 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $936 $1,685 1.80x 2026-11-10 15:58 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=ceres-joker) [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) [G1G0 onte tap](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/G1G0%20onte%20tap) $936 $6,040 6.46x 2026-11-11 17:19 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) [G1G0 onte tap](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/G1G0%20onte%20tap) $936 $190 0.20x 2026-11-11 17:19 UTC [AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) [G1G0 onte tap](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/G1G0%20onte%20tap) $936 $30.28 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:19 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach) [G1G0 onte tap](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/G1G0%20onte%20tap) $936 $59.42 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:19 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $936 $783 0.84x 2026-11-11 04:47 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $936 $58.58 0.06x 2026-11-11 04:47 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $936 $143 0.15x 2026-11-11 04:46 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $936 $6,040 6.46x 2026-11-11 04:46 UTC [M4A4 | Full Throttle weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle) [???????????????????????????? シ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%20%E3%82%B7) $936 $40.17 0.04x 2026-11-10 15:59 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $936 $190 0.20x 2026-11-10 15:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $6,040 (6.46x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.30 on average: an expected loss of $7.70 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt