---
title: "CERES case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "CERES ($40.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 31 items with odds, observed 81.69% over 1,869 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ceres
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [CERES](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ceres)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · CERES

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ceres?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ceres?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ceres) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ceres?window=all)

Price · $40.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $35.00 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.69% · 1,869 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 66.02% ±46.79 131 openings

7 days · 84.24% ±13.79 1,518 openings

30 days · 81.69% ±12.45 1,869 openings

since tracking started · 81.69% ±12.45 1,869 openings

18.5% 66.0% 113.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ceres?window=24h) | 131 | 66.02% ±46.8 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ceres?window=7d) | 1,518 | 84.24% ±13.8 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ceres) | 1,869 | 81.69% ±12.4 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ceres?window=all) | 1,869 | 81.69% ±12.4 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,869 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,040 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 5,000 | $3,100 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,030 | 1.2% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,685 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 299 | $783 | 7.5% | 3 | 6.2 | 0.48× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 239 | $626 | 7.5% | 5 | 7.8 | 0.64× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $199 | 7.5% | 17 | 24.6 | 0.69× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 413 | $197 | 1.4% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.44× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 309 | $170 | 1.6% | 2 | 6.1 | 0.33× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 121 | $153 | 3.6% | 13 | 15.5 | 0.84× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $145 | 3.8% | 15 | 17.4 | 0.86× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $132 | 7.5% | 37 | 37.0 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 159 | $122 | 2.2% | 7 | 11.8 | 0.60× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 138 | $114 | 2.4% | 8 | 13.5 | 0.59× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 173 | $82.85 | 1.4% | 13 | 10.8 | 1.21× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 99 | $70.80 | 2.1% | 9 | 19.0 | 0.47× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $70.44 | 7.5% | 58 | 69.3 | 0.84× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $65.37 | 2.1% | 15 | 21.3 | 0.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 86 | $58.32 | 1.9% | 14 | 21.8 | 0.64× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $54.51 | 2.1% | 19 | 24.9 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 58 | $54.24 | 2.7% | 27 | 32.3 | 0.84× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $54.19 | 3.3% | 26 | 39.8 | 0.65× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 74 | $54.15 | 2.1% | 16 | 25.2 | 0.63× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $53.97 | 2.6% | 26 | 31.2 | 0.83× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $53.21 | 2.7% | 30 | 33.6 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $50.22 | 2.8% | 26 | 36.0 | 0.72× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $43.99 | 3.2% | 32 | 48.3 | 0.66× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $42.85 | 4.2% | 41 | 63.6 | 0.64× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $33.91 | 3.0% | 48 | 57.4 | 0.84× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $28.80 | 4.9% | 112 | 111.8 | 1.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Continuum (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-field-tested) | 57.6% | $0.66 | 1.1% | 1,081 | 1077.2 | 1.00× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/ceres`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [senseiKeS-\_\`](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/senseiKeS-_%60) $40.00 $2,081 52.04x 2026-11-05 15:37 UTC

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [senseiKeS-\_\`](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/senseiKeS-_%60) $40.00 $2,081 52.04x 2026-11-05 15:35 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $40.00 $801 20.02x 2026-11-05 22:32 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [muller](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/muller) $40.00 $795 19.87x 2026-11-05 02:09 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $40.00 $755 18.87x 2026-11-09 17:03 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [DemitoX](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/DemitoX) $40.00 $639 15.96x 2026-11-04 02:12 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $40.00 $639 15.96x 2026-11-03 11:40 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $40.00 $634 15.84x 2026-11-07 06:13 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [skipper](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/skipper) $40.00 $626 15.65x 2026-11-07 14:59 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Fenoo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Fenoo) $40.00 $623 15.58x 2026-11-09 16:12 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=ceres)

[UMP-45 | Continuum (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-field-tested) [✦✦✦⛓ѕσвσ⛓✦✦✦](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9B%93%D1%95%CF%83%D0%B2%CF%83%E2%9B%93%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6) $40.00 $0.66 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[UMP-45 | Continuum (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-field-tested) [✦✦✦⛓ѕσвσ⛓✦✦✦](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9B%93%D1%95%CF%83%D0%B2%CF%83%E2%9B%93%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6) $40.00 $0.66 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[AK-47 | Fuel Injector weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector) [✦✦✦⛓ѕσвσ⛓✦✦✦](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9B%93%D1%95%CF%83%D0%B2%CF%83%E2%9B%93%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6) $40.00 $137 3.41x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Rider weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider) [✦✦✦⛓ѕσвσ⛓✦✦✦](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9B%93%D1%95%CF%83%D0%B2%CF%83%E2%9B%93%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6) $40.00 $59.10 1.48x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[UMP-45 | Continuum (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-field-tested) [✦✦✦⛓ѕσвσ⛓✦✦✦](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9B%93%D1%95%CF%83%D0%B2%CF%83%E2%9B%93%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6%E2%9C%A6) $40.00 $0.66 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[UMP-45 | Continuum (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-field-tested) Hidden $40.00 $0.68 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[UMP-45 | Continuum (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-field-tested) Hidden $40.00 $0.68 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[UMP-45 | Continuum (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-field-tested) Hidden $40.00 $0.68 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[★ Nomad Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $40.00 $192 4.81x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[M4A4 | Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) Hidden $40.00 $46.45 1.16x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $40.00 | 87.50% | 31 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $40.00 | 87.51% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $40.00 | 87.35% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $40.00 | 87.75% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $40.00 | 87.67% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $40.00 | 87.58% | 31 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $40.00 | 87.62% | 31 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $40.00 | 87.61% | 31 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $40.00 | 87.57% | 31 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $40.00 | 87.58% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $40.00 | 87.60% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $40.00 | 87.54% | 31 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $40.00 | 87.62% | 31 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $40.00 | 87.63% | 31 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $40.00 | 87.35% | 31 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $40.00 | 87.46% | 31 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $40.00 | 87.59% | 31 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $40.00 | 87.72% | 31 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.0% covert 23.8% restricted 0.0% gold 0.4% sunny 2.0% Ancient 4.5% red 5.7% violet 63.6% best hit $2,081 (52.04x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt