--- title: "CHAIN JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "CHAIN JOKER ($896.85) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 88.00% over 262 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/chain-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T16:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [CHAIN JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/chain-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · CHAIN JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/chain-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/chain-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/chain-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/chain-joker?window=all) Price · $896.85 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 88.00% · 262 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 19 openings · below min 7 days · 201 openings · below min 30 days · 262 openings · below min since tracking started · 262 openings · below min 9.5% 62.5% 115.5% **Small sample.** 262 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/chain-joker?window=24h) | 19 | 35.95% ±25.8 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/chain-joker?window=7d) | 201 | 79.83% ±26.5 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/chain-joker) | 262 | 88.00% ±27.1 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/chain-joker?window=all) | 262 | 88.00% ±27.1 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) [D. xGuGu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/D.%20xGuGu) $897 $9,986 11.13x 2026-11-05 15:24 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $897 $9,986 11.13x 2026-11-04 23:29 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $896 $9,986 11.15x 2026-11-04 03:21 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $896 $9,986 11.15x 2026-11-04 03:21 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $896 $9,986 11.15x 2026-11-04 03:21 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $889 $9,872 11.11x 2026-11-03 15:57 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $889 $9,872 11.11x 2026-11-03 15:57 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) [???????????????????????????? シ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%20%E3%82%B7) $871 $9,502 10.90x 2026-11-10 10:20 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $871 $9,502 10.90x 2026-11-10 10:12 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $871 $9,502 10.90x 2026-11-10 10:12 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=chain-joker) [AWP | Green Energy weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy) [Deivid](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Deivid) $875 $14.03 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:32 UTC [M4A4 | The Emperor weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor) [Deivid](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Deivid) $875 $159 0.18x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC [AWP | Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) [Deivid](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Deivid) $867 $31.59 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-well-worn) Hidden $867 $68.52 0.08x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $867 $140 0.16x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $867 $2,089 2.41x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $867 $190 0.22x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $867 $168 0.19x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC [M4A4 | The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) [Deivid](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Deivid) $867 $82.91 0.10x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $867 $190 0.22x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $9,986 (11.13x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.00 on average: an expected loss of $12.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt