---
title: "CHAIN case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "CHAIN ($115.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 55 items with odds, observed 97.63% over 2,228 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/chain
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [CHAIN](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/chain)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · CHAIN

A case on Key-Drop (BATTLE CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/chain?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/chain?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/chain) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/chain?window=all)

Price · $115.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $100.62 from 55 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 97.63% · 2,228 openings, odds method

Variance · 10.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 134.06% ±35.43 320 openings

7 days · 100.02% ±15.62 1,726 openings

30 days · 97.63% ±13.72 2,228 openings

since tracking started · 97.63% ±13.72 2,228 openings

83.5% 126.8% 170.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/chain?window=24h) | 320 | 134.06% ±35.4 | +2.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/chain?window=7d) | 1,726 | 100.02% ±15.6 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/chain) | 2,228 | 97.63% ±13.7 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/chain?window=all) | 2,228 | 97.63% ±13.7 | +1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 55 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,228 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $9,502 | 9.4% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.90× |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 227 | $2,142 | 9.4% | 16 | 9.8 | 1.63× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 213 | $1,996 | 9.3% | 10 | 10.5 | 0.95× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 120 | $1,119 | 9.2% | 23 | 18.5 | 1.24× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $539 | 9.3% | 36 | 38.5 | 0.93× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $495 | 1.0% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 588 | $278 | 0.5% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $244 | 1.1% | 8 | 10.0 | 0.80× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 139 | $234 | 1.7% | 8 | 16.0 | 0.50× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $193 | 1.2% | 12 | 13.4 | 0.90× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $193 | 1.8% | 17 | 20.7 | 0.82× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 44 | $191 | 4.3% | 66 | 50.6 | 1.30× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 147 | $182 | 1.2% | 13 | 15.2 | 0.86× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $173 | 4.3% | 61 | 55.7 | 1.10× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 179 | $155 | 0.9% | 6 | 12.5 | 0.48× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 179 | $154 | 0.9% | 8 | 12.5 | 0.64× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $148 | 2.6% | 22 | 40.1 | 0.55× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 98 | $148 | 1.5% | 21 | 22.7 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 149 | $142 | 0.9% | 13 | 14.9 | 0.87× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 147 | $140 | 0.9% | 15 | 15.2 | 0.99× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $136 | 2.5% | 38 | 41.7 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 137 | $136 | 1.0% | 5 | 16.3 | 0.31× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 119 | $127 | 1.1% | 12 | 18.7 | 0.64× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $123 | 4.3% | 82 | 78.4 | 1.05× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $118 | 4.3% | 98 | 82.2 | 1.19× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $115 | 0.4% | 14 | 7.1 | 1.96× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $109 | 0.8% | 9 | 17.2 | 0.52× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 122 | $105 | 0.9% | 10 | 18.3 | 0.55× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $104 | 0.7% | 11 | 15.6 | 0.71× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 139 | $102 | 0.7% | 7 | 16.0 | 0.44× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $95.03 | 0.8% | 8 | 17.8 | 0.45× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $88.77 | 1.2% | 23 | 29.6 | 0.78× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $83.05 | 2.0% | 33 | 52.8 | 0.62× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $74.06 | 2.5% | 79 | 76.0 | 1.04× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $67.92 | 1.4% | 32 | 45.5 | 0.70× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 263 | $45.00 | 0.2% | 6 | 8.5 | 0.71× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) | 1 in 345 | $31.42 | 0.1% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.93× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $22.15 | 0.3% | 15 | 26.1 | 0.58× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 116 | $15.86 | 0.1% | 12 | 19.2 | 0.63× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $14.98 | 0.3% | 27 | 48.8 | 0.55× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $14.63 | 0.3% | 32 | 50.6 | 0.63× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $14.48 | 0.3% | 30 | 51.5 | 0.58× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 114 | $13.39 | 0.1% | 14 | 19.6 | 0.71× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-factory-new) | 1 in 112 | $11.37 | 0.1% | 18 | 19.8 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $7.93 | 0.2% | 37 | 57.7 | 0.64× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $7.85 | 0.2% | 26 | 46.3 | 0.56× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $7.01 | 0.2% | 37 | 70.4 | 0.53× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $5.72 | 0.2% | 42 | 59.5 | 0.71× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $5.27 | 0.2% | 57 | 87.6 | 0.65× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $5.04 | 0.2% | 76 | 94.0 | 0.81× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $4.68 | 0.2% | 71 | 105.8 | 0.67× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $4.09 | 0.2% | 60 | 101.6 | 0.59× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $3.76 | 0.2% | 77 | 116.3 | 0.66× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $3.76 | 0.2% | 84 | 116.3 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $3.70 | 0.3% | 137 | 201.6 | 0.68× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/chain`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $115 $9,986 86.83x 2026-11-05 01:35 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) [twitch.tv/pr1mefpss](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/twitch.tv%2Fpr1mefpss) $115 $9,718 84.50x 2026-11-08 08:18 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) [yaojiakai1006](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/yaojiakai1006) $115 $2,183 18.98x 2026-11-09 04:06 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) [theomgcat](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/theomgcat) $115 $2,173 18.89x 2026-11-08 15:17 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) [theomgcat](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/theomgcat) $115 $2,173 18.89x 2026-11-08 15:15 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $115 $2,173 18.89x 2026-11-08 15:13 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) [theomgcat](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/theomgcat) $115 $2,173 18.89x 2026-11-08 14:49 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) [theomgcat](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/theomgcat) $115 $2,173 18.89x 2026-11-08 14:48 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $115 $2,169 18.87x 2026-11-07 10:08 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $115 $2,142 18.63x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=chain)

[AWP | Green Energy weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy) [Furão Gaspacho](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Fur%C3%A3o%20Gaspacho) $115 $6.20 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[M4A1-S | Decimator weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator) [Furão Gaspacho](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Fur%C3%A3o%20Gaspacho) $115 $17.13 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus) [CODE TOROCHO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CODE%20TOROCHO) $115 $5.82 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-battle-scarred) Hidden $115 $3.44 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) [CODE TOROCHO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CODE%20TOROCHO) $115 $4.82 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $115 $5.82 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $115 $146 1.27x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $115 $2,142 18.63x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $115 $5.30 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) Hidden $115 $176 1.53x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $115 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $115 | 87.61% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $115 | 87.81% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $115 | 87.49% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $115 | 87.86% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $115 | 88.09% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $115 | 88.11% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $115 | 87.56% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $115 | 87.39% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $115 | 87.53% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $115 | 87.35% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $115 | 87.59% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $115 | 87.51% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $115 | 87.79% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $115 | 88.04% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $115 | 88.01% | 55 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $115 | 87.90% | 55 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 20.5% extraordinary 5.0% gold 6.4% legendary 0.2% epic 0.6% red 4.9% Covert 3.7% classified 6.0% rare 3.5% #d32ce6 12.5% pink 23.0% Classified 9.0% Legendary 4.8% best hit $9,986 (86.83x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt