--- title: "CHEAP KNIVES JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "CHEAP KNIVES JOKER ($179.65) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 86.04% over 425 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cheap-knives-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T21:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [CHEAP KNIVES JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cheap-knives-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · CHEAP KNIVES JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cheap-knives-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cheap-knives-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cheap-knives-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cheap-knives-joker?window=all) Price · $179.65 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 86.04% · 425 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 43 openings · below min 7 days · 277 openings · below min 30 days · 425 openings · below min since tracking started · 425 openings · below min 57.5% 90.0% 122.5% **Small sample.** 425 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cheap-knives-joker?window=24h) | 43 | 90.01% ±32.1 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cheap-knives-joker?window=7d) | 277 | 79.63% ±9.09 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cheap-knives-joker) | 425 | 86.04% ±8.35 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cheap-knives-joker?window=all) | 425 | 86.04% ±8.35 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Gabo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Gabo) $180 $925 5.15x 2026-11-03 15:39 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Gabo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Gabo) $180 $925 5.15x 2026-11-03 15:36 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [kachinja](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kachinja) $180 $925 5.15x 2026-11-03 16:30 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [kachinja](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kachinja) $180 $925 5.15x 2026-11-03 16:30 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $178 $920 5.17x 2026-11-04 18:50 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $177 $905 5.10x 2026-11-11 05:23 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $177 $905 5.10x 2026-11-11 05:14 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $178 $586 3.29x 2026-11-07 03:11 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $178 $586 3.29x 2026-11-04 23:11 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $178 $586 3.29x 2026-11-04 18:51 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=cheap-knives-joker) [★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Anton](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Anton) $178 $84.55 0.48x 2026-11-11 20:01 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water) [Headshot](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Headshot) $178 $49.07 0.28x 2026-11-11 15:31 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) Hidden $178 $55.75 0.31x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $178 $89.42 0.50x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-field-tested) Hidden $178 $108 0.61x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $178 $68.54 0.39x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $178 $158 0.89x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) [Headshot](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Headshot) $178 $48.14 0.27x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Headshot](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Headshot) $178 $142 0.80x 2026-11-11 15:24 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $178 $114 0.64x 2026-11-11 15:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $925 (5.15x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.04 on average: an expected loss of $13.96 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt