---
title: "CHEAP KNIVES case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CHEAP KNIVES ($73.25) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 75 items with odds, observed 85.11% over 3,501 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cheap-knives
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [CHEAP KNIVES](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cheap-knives)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · CHEAP KNIVES

A case on Key-Drop (PREMIUM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cheap-knives?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cheap-knives?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cheap-knives) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cheap-knives?window=all)

Price · $73.25

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $64.09 from 75 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.11% · 3,501 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.03% ±9.08 302 openings

7 days · 87.18% ±3.28 2,327 openings

30 days · 85.11% ±2.67 3,501 openings

since tracking started · 85.11% ±2.67 3,501 openings

82.0% 92.0% 102.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cheap-knives?window=24h) | 302 | 92.03% ±9.08 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cheap-knives?window=7d) | 2,327 | 87.18% ±3.28 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cheap-knives) | 3,501 | 85.11% ±2.67 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cheap-knives?window=all) | 3,501 | 85.11% ±2.67 | −2.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 75 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,501 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $905 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.57× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,429 | $572 | 0.6% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.82× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000 | $423 | 0.7% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.86× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 909 | $393 | 0.7% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.56× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 909 | $379 | 0.6% | 0 | 3.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 24 | $225 | 14.8% | 129 | 147.7 | 0.87× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 196 | $173 | 1.4% | 12 | 17.9 | 0.67× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 192 | $170 | 1.4% | 12 | 18.2 | 0.66× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 185 | $162 | 1.4% | 9 | 18.9 | 0.48× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 179 | $158 | 1.4% | 24 | 19.6 | 1.22× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 175 | $156 | 1.4% | 20 | 20.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 625 | $154 | 0.4% | 7 | 5.6 | 1.25× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 833 | $152 | 0.3% | 2 | 4.2 | 0.48× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 169 | $150 | 1.4% | 16 | 20.7 | 0.77× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $147 | 0.1% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.95× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 714 | $136 | 0.3% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 152 | $133 | 1.4% | 12 | 23.1 | 0.52× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 588 | $128 | 0.3% | 5 | 6.0 | 0.84× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 145 | $127 | 1.4% | 36 | 24.2 | 1.49× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 141 | $124 | 1.4% | 28 | 24.9 | 1.13× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 141 | $123 | 1.4% | 20 | 24.9 | 0.80× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $123 | 0.5% | 7 | 8.8 | 0.80× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 526 | $122 | 0.4% | 8 | 6.7 | 1.20× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 556 | $120 | 0.3% | 2 | 6.3 | 0.32× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $118 | 1.4% | 22 | 26.3 | 0.84× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 357 | $117 | 0.5% | 8 | 9.8 | 0.82× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 417 | $116 | 0.4% | 7 | 8.4 | 0.83× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 625 | $116 | 0.3% | 3 | 5.6 | 0.54× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 556 | $115 | 0.3% | 1 | 6.3 | 0.16× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $115 | 0.4% | 8 | 7.0 | 1.14× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 476 | $115 | 0.4% | 4 | 7.4 | 0.54× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $114 | 0.4% | 18 | 8.8 | 2.06× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 172 | $109 | 1.0% | 9 | 20.3 | 0.44× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 182 | $106 | 0.9% | 17 | 19.3 | 0.88× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 182 | $106 | 0.9% | 14 | 19.3 | 0.73× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 179 | $106 | 0.9% | 16 | 19.6 | 0.82× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $101 | 3.6% | 82 | 79.5 | 1.03× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 116 | $98.84 | 1.3% | 22 | 30.1 | 0.73× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 159 | $94.46 | 0.9% | 14 | 22.1 | 0.63× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 152 | $91.95 | 0.9% | 18 | 23.1 | 0.78× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 147 | $91.10 | 1.0% | 18 | 23.8 | 0.76× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $89.30 | 3.6% | 72 | 90.3 | 0.80× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 169 | $85.81 | 0.8% | 12 | 20.7 | 0.58× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $80.48 | 3.6% | 110 | 100.1 | 1.10× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 147 | $80.39 | 0.9% | 17 | 23.8 | 0.71× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 179 | $79.26 | 0.7% | 15 | 19.6 | 0.77× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $70.44 | 1.3% | 26 | 40.3 | 0.65× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 84 | $68.86 | 1.3% | 29 | 41.7 | 0.70× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 98 | $67.80 | 1.1% | 22 | 35.7 | 0.62× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 98 | $65.92 | 1.0% | 31 | 35.7 | 0.87× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 93 | $65.78 | 1.1% | 26 | 37.5 | 0.69× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 97 | $65.58 | 1.1% | 22 | 36.1 | 0.61× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 96 | $64.91 | 1.1% | 26 | 36.4 | 0.71× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $63.39 | 1.1% | 30 | 39.6 | 0.76× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $62.17 | 1.4% | 23 | 49.4 | 0.47× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $61.09 | 1.0% | 20 | 38.2 | 0.52× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 81 | $59.57 | 1.1% | 27 | 43.1 | 0.63× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $58.83 | 1.1% | 23 | 40.3 | 0.57× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 86 | $58.42 | 1.1% | 30 | 40.6 | 0.74× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 65 | $58.20 | 1.4% | 34 | 53.9 | 0.63× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 83 | $56.47 | 1.1% | 24 | 42.4 | 0.57× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $54.87 | 1.4% | 32 | 58.5 | 0.55× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 64 | $50.37 | 1.2% | 32 | 55.0 | 0.58× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $48.15 | 1.3% | 45 | 58.5 | 0.77× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $47.76 | 3.7% | 188 | 174.7 | 1.08× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $47.03 | 1.3% | 48 | 60.6 | 0.79× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $46.86 | 3.7% | 195 | 176.1 | 1.11× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $34.33 | 1.0% | 51 | 65.8 | 0.77× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $31.88 | 0.9% | 34 | 64.4 | 0.53× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $27.05 | 0.7% | 33 | 62.0 | 0.53× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $23.33 | 2.4% | 230 | 232.8 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $16.85 | 1.3% | 112 | 177.9 | 0.63× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $15.86 | 1.9% | 265 | 271.7 | 0.98× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $14.59 | 1.3% | 139 | 192.6 | 0.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $10.60 | 1.1% | 168 | 229.3 | 0.73× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/cheap-knives`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [karalyosrobik](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/karalyosrobik) $73.25 $916 12.50x 2026-11-06 10:15 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Iron CS2SKINS.GIFT CS.PRO SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Iron%20CS2SKINS.GIFT%20CS.PRO%20SKINS) $73.25 $586 8.00x 2026-11-03 23:59 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $73.25 $571 7.80x 2026-11-09 12:22 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=cheap-knives)

[★ Shadow Daggers | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-battle-scarred) [Jeff](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Jeff) $73.25 $47.76 0.65x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Case Hardened knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened) [Jeff](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Jeff) $73.25 $94.19 1.29x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [Jeff](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Jeff) $73.25 $225 3.07x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Damascus Steel knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel) [Jeff](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Jeff) $73.25 $58.21 0.79x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $73.25 $50.38 0.69x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-battle-scarred) [Jeff](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Jeff) $73.25 $45.35 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) Hidden $73.25 $10.90 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) [Jeff](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Jeff) $73.25 $94.30 1.29x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[MP7 | Smoking Kills (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-factory-new) Hidden $73.25 $31.50 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [Jeff](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Jeff) $73.25 $225 3.07x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $73.25 | 87.50% | 75 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $73.25 | 87.82% | 75 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $73.25 | 87.80% | 75 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $73.25 | 87.62% | 75 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $73.25 | 87.89% | 75 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $73.25 | 87.79% | 75 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $73.25 | 87.90% | 75 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $73.25 | 87.75% | 75 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $73.25 | 87.92% | 75 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $73.25 | 87.44% | 75 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $73.25 | 87.86% | 75 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $73.25 | 87.63% | 75 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $73.25 | 87.98% | 75 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $73.25 | 87.89% | 75 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $73.25 | 87.84% | 75 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $73.25 | 87.58% | 75 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $73.25 | 87.78% | 75 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 49.0% gold 11.7% Immortal 1.3% Covert 1.0% pink 3.7% rare 1.8% Legendary 12.2% uncommon 5.1% #d32ce6 7.8% classified 6.6% best hit $916 (12.50x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt