---
title: "CLOCK case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "CLOCK ($3.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 13 items with odds, observed 80.81% over 14.4K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/clock
rendered: 2026-11-11T12:57Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [CLOCK](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/clock)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · CLOCK

A case on Key-Drop (BATTLE CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/clock?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/clock?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/clock) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/clock?window=all)

Price · $3.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $2.62 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.81% · 14.4K openings, odds method

Variance · 5.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.04% ±9.02 2,816 openings

7 days · 79.79% ±4.34 12.5K openings

30 days · 80.81% ±4.05 14.4K openings

since tracking started · 80.81% ±4.05 14.4K openings

74.5% 84.0% 93.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.65% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (76.76% – 84.86%, 14,431 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/clock?window=24h) | 2,816 | 84.04% ±9.02 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/clock?window=7d) | 12.5K | 79.79% ±4.34 | −3.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/clock) | 14.4K | 80.81% ±4.05 | −3.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/clock?window=all) | 14.4K | 80.81% ±4.05 | −3.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 3,333 | $207 | 2.4% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.38× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 1,111 | $133 | 4.6% | 9 | 13.0 | 0.69× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 714 | $83.03 | 4.4% | 7 | 20.2 | 0.35× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 714 | $79.26 | 4.2% | 17 | 20.2 | 0.84× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $37.64 | 4.3% | 32 | 43.3 | 0.74× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 135 | $15.30 | 4.3% | 80 | 106.9 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $5.80 | 14.7% | 906 | 961.8 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $5.16 | 14.7% | 1,077 | 1080.3 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $4.55 | 14.7% | 1,060 | 1226.1 | 0.86× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-factory-new) | 14.5% | $1.65 | 9.1% | 2,062 | 2098.4 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-battle-scarred) | 16.8% | $1.31 | 8.4% | 2,480 | 2426.3 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 18.4% | $1.12 | 7.9% | 2,880 | 2664.5 | 1.08× |
| [Sticker \| High Heat sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-high-heat) | 26.2% | $0.63 | 6.3% | 3,826 | 3776.6 | 1.01× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/clock`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [snickerlvツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/snickerlv%E3%83%84) $3.00 $212 70.72x 2026-11-08 21:31 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [snickerlvツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/snickerlv%E3%83%84) $3.00 $212 70.72x 2026-11-08 21:27 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $3.00 $212 70.72x 2026-11-08 02:01 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $3.00 $211 70.22x 2026-11-08 13:48 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $3.00 $207 68.89x 2026-11-10 16:35 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $3.00 $204 68.15x 2026-11-03 22:06 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) [Jxm1k.](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Jxm1k.) $3.00 $151 50.26x 2026-11-04 10:35 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=clock)

[Sticker | High Heat sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-high-heat) [Grufianu\_CS2SKINS.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Grufianu_CS2SKINS.GIFT) $3.00 $0.63 0.21x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.00 $0.95 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[AK-47 | Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.00 $4.80 1.60x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[Sticker | High Heat sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-high-heat) [Grufianu\_CS2SKINS.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Grufianu_CS2SKINS.GIFT) $3.00 $0.71 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-battle-scarred) [denis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/denis) $3.00 $1.31 0.44x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.00 $0.95 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-battle-scarred) [denis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/denis) $3.00 $1.28 0.43x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-well-worn) [♛DenniX♛](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%99%9BDenniX%E2%99%9B) $3.00 $4.55 1.52x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-factory-new) Hidden $3.00 $1.62 0.54x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.00 $0.95 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $3.00 | 87.50% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $3.00 | 88.04% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $3.00 | 87.65% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $3.00 | 87.99% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $3.00 | 87.74% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.00 | 87.96% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $3.00 | 88.06% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $3.00 | 87.82% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $3.00 | 87.72% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $3.00 | 87.27% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $3.00 | 87.11% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $3.00 | 88.22% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $3.00 | 87.14% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $3.00 | 88.16% | 13 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $3.00 | 87.38% | 13 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $3.00 | 88.02% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.00 | 87.56% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.4% Ancient 0.3% classified 0.7% Classified 6.7% #d32ce6 7.5% pink 8.5% #8847ff 33.0% violet 16.8% blue 26.2% best hit $212 (70.72x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt