--- title: "COBRA JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "COBRA JOKER ($473.21) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 87.33% over 875 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cobra-joker rendered: 2026-11-12T11:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [COBRA JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cobra-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · COBRA JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cobra-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cobra-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cobra-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cobra-joker?window=all) Price · $473.21 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 87.33% · 875 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 70 openings · below min 7 days · 768 openings · below min 30 days · 875 openings · below min since tracking started · 875 openings · below min 55.5% 89.5% 123.5% **Small sample.** 875 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cobra-joker?window=24h) | 70 | 89.69% ±33.3 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cobra-joker?window=7d) | 768 | 86.94% ±8.95 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cobra-joker) | 875 | 87.33% ±8.22 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cobra-joker?window=all) | 875 | 87.33% ±8.22 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $468 $2,826 6.05x 2026-11-07 08:46 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [MATAMOROS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MATAMOROS) $468 $2,826 6.05x 2026-11-07 08:34 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $468 $2,826 6.05x 2026-11-07 07:31 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [triple](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/triple) $468 $2,826 6.05x 2026-11-07 07:31 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $468 $2,826 6.05x 2026-11-07 07:31 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $468 $2,826 6.05x 2026-11-06 19:15 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $466 $2,826 6.06x 2026-11-05 23:31 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $465 $2,821 6.07x 2026-11-10 16:47 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $467 $2,810 6.01x 2026-11-07 16:34 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $466 $2,789 5.98x 2026-11-11 19:24 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=cobra-joker) [AK-47 | The Outsiders weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders) [Twiizzy ◕\_◕](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Twiizzy%20%E2%97%95_%E2%97%95) $466 $17.50 0.04x 2026-11-12 11:00 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport) [Twiizzy ◕\_◕](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Twiizzy%20%E2%97%95_%E2%97%95) $466 $164 0.35x 2026-11-12 10:59 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov) [Twiizzy ◕\_◕](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Twiizzy%20%E2%97%95_%E2%97%95) $466 $56.88 0.12x 2026-11-12 10:59 UTC [AK-47 | The Outsiders weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders) [Twiizzy ◕\_◕](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Twiizzy%20%E2%97%95_%E2%97%95) $466 $17.50 0.04x 2026-11-12 10:59 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov) [Twiizzy ◕\_◕](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Twiizzy%20%E2%97%95_%E2%97%95) $466 $56.88 0.12x 2026-11-12 10:59 UTC [AK-47 | The Outsiders (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-minimal-wear) [Twiizzy ◕\_◕](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Twiizzy%20%E2%97%95_%E2%97%95) $459 $12.88 0.03x 2026-11-12 10:54 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $459 $310 0.68x 2026-11-12 10:54 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $459 $667 1.45x 2026-11-12 10:54 UTC [Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-minimal-wear) Hidden $459 $253 0.55x 2026-11-12 10:54 UTC [M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) Hidden $459 $145 0.32x 2026-11-12 10:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $2,826 (6.05x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.33 on average: an expected loss of $12.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt