--- title: "COOP CHAOS case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "COOP CHAOS ($0.15) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 15 items with odds, observed 76.43% over 190K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/coop-chaos rendered: 2026-11-11T19:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [COOP CHAOS](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/coop-chaos) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · COOP CHAOS A case on Key-Drop (FARM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/coop-chaos?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/coop-chaos?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/coop-chaos) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/coop-chaos?window=all) Price · $0.15 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.13 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.43% · 190K openings, odds method Variance · 14.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 36.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 77.89% ±4.96 22.7K openings 7 days · 76.30% ±1.94 152K openings 30 days · 76.43% ±1.74 190K openings since tracking started · 76.43% ±1.74 190K openings 72.5% 80.5% 88.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.76% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (74.69% – 78.16%, 190,001 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/coop-chaos?window=24h) | 22.7K | 77.89% ±4.96 | −3.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/coop-chaos?window=7d) | 152K | 76.30% ±1.94 | −11.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/coop-chaos) | 190K | 76.43% ±1.74 | −12.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/coop-chaos?window=all) | 190K | 76.43% ±1.74 | −12.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 191K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-constrictor-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $51.20 | 1.2% | 2 | 5.7 | 0.35× | | [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 5,882 | $34.37 | 4.5% | 11 | 32.4 | 0.34× | | [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $8.20 | 1.9% | 14 | 57.2 | 0.24× | | [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $3.14 | 4.8% | 103 | 381.1 | 0.27× | | [Sticker \| Winding Scorch sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch) | 1 in 446 | $1.87 | 3.2% | 288 | 426.8 | 0.67× | | [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) | 1 in 312 | $1.30 | 3.2% | 505 | 611.6 | 0.83× | | [Nova \| Windblown (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $0.30 | 3.2% | 2,724 | 2646.6 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ Nova \| Wood Fired (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $0.20 | 3.2% | 4,354 | 3969.0 | 1.10× | | [Sticker \| aizy \| Berlin 2019 sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-aizy-berlin-2019) | 1 in 41 | $0.17 | 3.2% | 5,462 | 4668.3 | 1.17× | | [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-necro-jr-minimal-wear) | 14.5% | $0.14 | 15.5% | 9,207 | 27689.6 | 0.33× | | [SSG 08 \| Prey (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-prey-field-tested) | 15.3% | $0.11 | 12.8% | 36,618 | 29059.6 | 1.26× | | [SCAR-20 \| Carbon Fiber (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-carbon-fiber-factory-new) | 15.9% | $0.09 | 10.9% | 38,596 | 30248.5 | 1.28× | | [Nova \| Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-minimal-wear) | 15.9% | $0.09 | 10.9% | 34,556 | 30248.5 | 1.14× | | [SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-minimal-wear) | 15.9% | $0.09 | 10.9% | 30,071 | 30248.5 | 0.99× | | [Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-minimal-wear) | 15.9% | $0.09 | 10.9% | 28,031 | 30248.5 | 0.93× | Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/coop-chaos`, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Hand Wraps | Constrictor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-constrictor-field-tested) [7 PEEKS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/7%20PEEKS) $0.15 $55.30 368.7x 2026-11-03 13:06 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Constrictor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-constrictor-field-tested) [7 PEEKS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/7%20PEEKS) $0.15 $55.30 368.7x 2026-11-03 13:04 UTC [M4A4 | Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) Hidden $0.15 $35.91 239.4x 2026-11-07 13:03 UTC [M4A4 | Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) Hidden $0.15 $35.85 239.0x 2026-11-08 09:10 UTC [M4A4 | Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) [Saudez](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Saudez) $0.15 $34.68 231.2x 2026-11-05 08:08 UTC [M4A4 | Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) [Saudez](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Saudez) $0.15 $34.68 231.2x 2026-11-05 08:05 UTC [M4A4 | Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) Hidden $0.15 $34.68 231.2x 2026-11-05 07:42 UTC [M4A4 | Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) [filarosh](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/filarosh) $0.15 $34.46 229.7x 2026-11-07 04:37 UTC [M4A4 | Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) [filarosh](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/filarosh) $0.15 $34.46 229.7x 2026-11-07 04:35 UTC [M4A4 | Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) [Frances Bentley](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Frances%20Bentley) $0.15 $34.46 229.7x 2026-11-06 20:25 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=coop-chaos) [SSG 08 | Prey (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-prey-field-tested) [eosix](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/eosix) $0.15 $0.11 0.73x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC [Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-minimal-wear) [OKARES](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/OKARES) $0.15 $0.09 0.60x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC [Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-minimal-wear) [eosix](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/eosix) $0.15 $0.09 0.60x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC [SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-carbon-fiber-factory-new) [ALEXDELACLUJ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ALEXDELACLUJ) $0.15 $0.09 0.60x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC [SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-minimal-wear) [OKARES](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/OKARES) $0.15 $0.09 0.60x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC [Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-minimal-wear) [BILDIRCIN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BILDIRCIN) $0.15 $0.09 0.60x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC [Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-minimal-wear) [Miro1910](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Miro1910) $0.15 $0.09 0.60x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC [Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-minimal-wear) [OKARES](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/OKARES) $0.15 $0.09 0.60x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC [StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-necro-jr-minimal-wear) [BILDIRCIN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BILDIRCIN) $0.15 $0.14 0.93x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC [SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-minimal-wear) [OKARES](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/OKARES) $0.15 $0.09 0.60x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $0.15 | 87.50% | 15 | | 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.15 | 87.50% | 15 | | 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.15 | 86.32% | 15 | | 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.15 | 87.06% | 15 | | 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.15 | 87.29% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.15 | 87.57% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.15 | 89.61% | 15 | | 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.15 | 87.53% | 15 | | 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.15 | 86.63% | 15 | | 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.15 | 87.50% | 15 | | 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.15 | 89.83% | 15 | | 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.15 | 90.32% | 15 | | 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.15 | 86.43% | 15 | | 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.15 | 87.50% | 15 | | 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.15 | 86.98% | 15 | | 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.15 | 87.50% | 15 | | 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.15 | 90.66% | 15 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.15 | 84.91% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% red 0.0% pink 0.3% Mythical 0.2% restricted 0.3% Mil Spec 1.4% blue 66.7% gray 15.3% light blue 15.9% best hit $55.30 (368.7x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt