---
title: "CORAL BLADE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CORAL BLADE ($58.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 23 items with odds, observed 86.35% over 11.4K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/coral-blade
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [CORAL BLADE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/coral-blade)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · CORAL BLADE

A case on Key-Drop (IMPERIAL CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/coral-blade?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/coral-blade?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/coral-blade) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/coral-blade?window=all)

Price · $58.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $50.75 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.35% · 11.4K openings, odds method

Variance · 14.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 94.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.07% ±16.40 2,024 openings

7 days · 87.88% ±8.21 8,134 openings

30 days · 86.35% ±6.97 11.4K openings

since tracking started · 86.35% ±6.97 11.4K openings

68.0% 85.0% 102.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/coral-blade?window=24h) | 2,024 | 85.07% ±16.4 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/coral-blade?window=7d) | 8,134 | 87.88% ±8.21 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/coral-blade) | 11.4K | 86.35% ±6.97 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/coral-blade?window=all) | 11.4K | 86.35% ±6.97 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 33,333 | $13.7K | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 20,000 | $9,437 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 20,000 | $9,362 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 14,286 | $3,645 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 3,333 | $3,063 | 1.8% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.88× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,204 | 2.2% | 10 | 5.7 | 1.75× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 435 | $1,812 | 8.2% | 32 | 26.3 | 1.22× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 222 | $905 | 8.0% | 45 | 51.4 | 0.88× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 208 | $855 | 8.1% | 57 | 54.8 | 1.04× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 196 | $799 | 8.0% | 45 | 58.2 | 0.77× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 169 | $687 | 8.0% | 66 | 67.3 | 0.98× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 152 | $619 | 8.1% | 54 | 75.3 | 0.72× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 143 | $588 | 8.1% | 85 | 79.9 | 1.06× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 141 | $577 | 8.1% | 70 | 81.0 | 0.86× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 80 | $327 | 8.1% | 143 | 142.7 | 1.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $29.81 | 4.7% | 888 | 916.6 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $28.80 | 4.7% | 969 | 948.6 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 10.5% | $13.28 | 2.7% | 1,204 | 1197.4 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 11.5% | $9.69 | 2.2% | 1,349 | 1315.0 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 11.9% | $8.77 | 2.1% | 1,379 | 1356.1 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-factory-new) | 14.3% | $4.70 | 1.3% | 1,636 | 1634.6 | 1.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) | 14.7% | $4.27 | 1.2% | 1,720 | 1682.6 | 1.02× |
| [XM1014 \| XOXO (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-field-tested) | 15.0% | $4.18 | 1.2% | 1,658 | 1715.7 | 0.97× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/coral-blade`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $58.00 $9,437 162.7x 2026-11-11 03:43 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $58.00 $9,362 161.4x 2026-11-09 21:15 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $58.00 $3,050 52.58x 2026-11-08 21:17 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [roman](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/roman) $58.00 $3,050 52.58x 2026-11-08 19:09 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $58.00 $3,050 52.58x 2026-11-07 22:21 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [knash](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/knash) $58.00 $2,242 38.66x 2026-11-04 03:42 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [knash](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/knash) $58.00 $2,242 38.66x 2026-11-04 03:42 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [shz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/shz) $58.00 $2,242 38.66x 2026-11-03 20:49 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $58.00 $2,212 38.14x 2026-11-02 23:55 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $58.00 $2,210 38.10x 2026-11-07 23:26 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=coral-blade)

[AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) [farlopero peek](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/farlopero%20peek) $58.00 $13.28 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) Hidden $58.00 $9.24 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC

[AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) [farlopero peek](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/farlopero%20peek) $58.00 $12.54 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC

[M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) [xitax](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/xitax) $58.00 $9.69 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) [xitax](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/xitax) $58.00 $13.28 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) [xitax](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/xitax) $58.00 $4.27 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [xitax](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/xitax) $58.00 $327 5.64x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) [xitax](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/xitax) $58.00 $9.69 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) [xitax](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/xitax) $58.00 $9.69 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) [xitax](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/xitax) $58.00 $8.77 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $58.00 | 87.50% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $58.00 | 88.63% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $58.00 | 88.94% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $58.00 | 88.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $58.00 | 87.89% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $58.00 | 85.75% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $58.00 | 85.43% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $58.00 | 86.41% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $58.00 | 86.13% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $58.00 | 85.61% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $58.00 | 86.67% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $58.00 | 86.97% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $58.00 | 87.36% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $58.00 | 87.30% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $58.00 | 87.63% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $58.00 | 87.33% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $58.00 | 87.02% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 3.2% legendary 2.5% classified 18.5% violet 34.1% #8847ff 11.9% pink 14.7% Legendary 15.0% best hit $9,437 (162.7x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt