---
title: "COUNTRY SITE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "COUNTRY SITE ($50.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 41 items with odds, observed 89.00% over 21.4K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/country-site
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:15Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [COUNTRY SITE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/country-site)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · COUNTRY SITE

A case on Key-Drop (EVENT CASES), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/country-site?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/country-site?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/country-site) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/country-site?window=all)

Price · $50.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $43.75 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.00% · 21.4K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.23% ±2.21 7,840 openings

7 days · 89.00% ±1.35 21.4K openings

30 days · 89.00% ±1.35 21.4K openings

since tracking started · 89.00% ±1.35 21.4K openings

86.5% 89.3% 92.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.55% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (87.66% – 90.35%, 21,438 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/country-site?window=24h) | 7,840 | 89.23% ±2.21 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/country-site?window=7d) | 21.4K | 89.00% ±1.35 | +2.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/country-site) | 21.4K | 89.00% ±1.35 | +2.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/country-site?window=all) | 21.4K | 89.00% ±1.35 | +2.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $2,489 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 33,333 | $2,248 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,003 | 0.2% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.75× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,587 | 0.4% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.87× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,208 | 0.6% | 10 | 4.6 | 2.18× |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $806 | 0.4% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.87× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $787 | 0.5% | 8 | 6.9 | 1.17× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 2,500 | $620 | 0.6% | 11 | 9.2 | 1.20× |
| [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-factory-new) | 1 in 833 | $381 | 1.0% | 35 | 27.5 | 1.27× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 204 | $204 | 2.3% | 119 | 112.1 | 1.06× |
| [P90 \| Run and Hide (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $155 | 9.6% | 305 | 620.2 | 0.49× |
| [SG 553 \| Tornado (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tornado-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $119 | 5.2% | 363 | 434.8 | 0.83× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $103 | 5.2% | 665 | 501.2 | 1.33× |
| [Nova \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $87.43 | 5.2% | 705 | 595.0 | 1.18× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $82.88 | 0.9% | 86 | 114.4 | 0.75× |
| [FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $82.70 | 5.2% | 741 | 627.0 | 1.18× |
| [G3SG1 \| Arctic Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $70.73 | 5.8% | 994 | 821.5 | 1.21× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $67.47 | 2.8% | 317 | 409.6 | 0.77× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $62.30 | 1.3% | 163 | 212.8 | 0.77× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $61.26 | 3.0% | 382 | 496.6 | 0.77× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 89 | $58.45 | 1.5% | 177 | 256.3 | 0.69× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $57.65 | 1.4% | 189 | 249.4 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $55.78 | 1.6% | 248 | 281.5 | 0.88× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-well-worn) | 1 in 83 | $54.83 | 1.5% | 242 | 276.9 | 0.87× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $54.27 | 1.5% | 269 | 281.5 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 156 | $52.62 | 0.8% | 95 | 146.5 | 0.65× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 70 | $51.61 | 1.7% | 300 | 327.2 | 0.92× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $46.27 | 9.7% | 2,057 | 2091.6 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $27.68 | 1.8% | 391 | 645.3 | 0.61× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-minimal-wear) | 11.3% | $27.16 | 7.0% | 2,469 | 2592.8 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $26.09 | 1.6% | 391 | 624.7 | 0.63× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $25.28 | 1.6% | 441 | 627.0 | 0.70× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $23.68 | 1.6% | 390 | 686.5 | 0.57× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $23.30 | 1.6% | 470 | 702.5 | 0.67× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $22.82 | 1.6% | 454 | 723.1 | 0.63× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $22.77 | 1.9% | 567 | 849.0 | 0.67× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $22.23 | 1.9% | 551 | 876.5 | 0.63× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $19.61 | 2.4% | 791 | 1226.6 | 0.64× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $17.41 | 1.9% | 693 | 1103.0 | 0.63× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $15.22 | 2.0% | 848 | 1329.6 | 0.64× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $13.92 | 2.8% | 1,250 | 1984.0 | 0.63× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/country-site`, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $50.00 $2,003 40.05x 2026-11-11 02:27 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $50.00 $2,003 40.05x 2026-11-10 17:47 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [hh =DDDDDDD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/hh%20%3DDDDDDDD) $50.00 $1,611 32.22x 2026-11-10 19:16 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $50.00 $1,611 32.22x 2026-11-10 03:02 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $50.00 $1,208 24.16x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [-melo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/-melo) $50.00 $1,208 24.16x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [-melo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/-melo) $50.00 $1,208 24.16x 2026-11-11 17:15 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $50.00 $1,208 24.16x 2026-11-10 21:12 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [XSERTAKİ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/XSERTAK%C4%B0) $50.00 $1,208 24.16x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [XSERTAKİ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/XSERTAK%C4%B0) $50.00 $1,208 24.16x 2026-11-10 20:44 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=country-site)

[Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-minimal-wear) [Hajasealljol](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hajasealljol) $50.00 $27.16 0.54x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC

[AK-47 | Point Disarray weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray) [Hajasealljol](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hajasealljol) $50.00 $18.23 0.36x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC

[M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch) [Hajasealljol](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hajasealljol) $50.00 $25.58 0.51x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC

[AK-47 | Point Disarray weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray) [Hajasealljol](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hajasealljol) $50.00 $18.23 0.36x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC

[FAMAS | Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) [Hajasealljol](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hajasealljol) $50.00 $82.70 1.65x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-minimal-wear) [Hajasealljol](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hajasealljol) $50.00 $27.16 0.54x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC

[G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-minimal-wear) [Hajasealljol](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hajasealljol) $50.00 $70.73 1.41x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC

[M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch) [Hajasealljol](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hajasealljol) $50.00 $25.58 0.51x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-minimal-wear) [Hajasealljol](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hajasealljol) $50.00 $27.16 0.54x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Rider weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider) [Hajasealljol](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hajasealljol) $50.00 $58.25 1.17x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $50.00 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $50.00 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $50.00 | 87.31% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $50.00 | 87.58% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $50.00 | 87.75% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 7.1% legendary 0.0% rare 12.0% restricted 0.1% pink 18.6% gray 1.9% blue 5.3% Industrial Grade 3.6% red 6.4% uncommon 2.0% consumer 9.1% industrial 11.3% classified 22.5% best hit $2,003 (40.05x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt