--- title: "COVERT JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "COVERT JOKER ($528.61) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 77.06% over 1,002 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/covert-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T21:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [COVERT JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/covert-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · COVERT JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/covert-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/covert-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/covert-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/covert-joker?window=all) Price · $528.61 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 77.06% · 1,002 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 160 openings · below min 7 days · 751 openings · below min 30 days · 77.06% ±17.38 1,002 openings since tracking started · 77.06% ±17.38 1,002 openings 13.0% 58.0% 103.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/covert-joker?window=24h) | 160 | 39.19% ±25.4 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/covert-joker?window=7d) | 751 | 81.59% ±20.6 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/covert-joker) | 1,002 | 77.06% ±17.4 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/covert-joker?window=all) | 1,002 | 77.06% ±17.4 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) [Hum4](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hum4) $534 $10.3K 19.23x 2026-11-06 19:18 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) [Hum4](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hum4) $537 $10.2K 18.98x 2026-11-06 05:21 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) [Hum4](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hum4) $537 $10.2K 18.98x 2026-11-06 05:12 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) Hidden $537 $10.2K 18.98x 2026-11-06 05:12 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) Hidden $537 $10.2K 18.98x 2026-11-06 03:15 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) Hidden $537 $10.2K 18.98x 2026-11-05 20:44 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) [Hum4](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hum4) $528 $10.2K 19.30x 2026-11-06 19:18 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) [Hum4](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hum4) $528 $10.2K 19.30x 2026-11-06 05:21 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) [Hum4](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hum4) $528 $10.2K 19.30x 2026-11-06 05:14 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) Hidden $528 $10.2K 19.30x 2026-11-05 03:21 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=covert-joker) [AWP | Wildfire weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire) [Davidbsy | CS Trader](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Davidbsy%20%7C%20CS%20Trader) $527 $58.73 0.11x 2026-11-11 21:06 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov) [Davidbsy | CS Trader](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Davidbsy%20%7C%20CS%20Trader) $527 $54.52 0.10x 2026-11-11 21:06 UTC [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) [Davidbsy | CS Trader](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Davidbsy%20%7C%20CS%20Trader) $527 $127 0.24x 2026-11-11 21:06 UTC [M4A1-S | Vaporwave weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave) [Davidbsy | CS Trader](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Davidbsy%20%7C%20CS%20Trader) $527 $54.37 0.10x 2026-11-11 21:06 UTC [Charm | Lil' Serpent charm · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-serpent) [Davidbsy | CS Trader](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Davidbsy%20%7C%20CS%20Trader) $527 $14.12 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:06 UTC [AWP | Neo-Noir weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir) [Davidbsy | CS Trader](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Davidbsy%20%7C%20CS%20Trader) $527 $54.36 0.10x 2026-11-11 21:06 UTC [PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-minimal-wear) [Davidbsy | CS Trader](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Davidbsy%20%7C%20CS%20Trader) $527 $149 0.28x 2026-11-11 21:05 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-factory-new) [Davidbsy | CS Trader](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Davidbsy%20%7C%20CS%20Trader) $527 $1.18 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:05 UTC [AWP | Wildfire weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire) [Davidbsy | CS Trader](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Davidbsy%20%7C%20CS%20Trader) $527 $58.73 0.11x 2026-11-11 21:05 UTC [AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) [Davidbsy | CS Trader](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Davidbsy%20%7C%20CS%20Trader) $527 $119 0.23x 2026-11-11 21:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $10.3K (19.23x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 77.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $77.06 on average: an expected loss of $22.94 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt