---
title: "COVERT case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "COVERT ($25.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 133 items with odds, observed 87.45% over 3,847 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/covert
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:05Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [COVERT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/covert)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · COVERT

A case on Key-Drop (WEAPON CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/covert?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/covert?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/covert) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/covert?window=all)

Price · $25.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $21.88 from 133 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.45% · 3,847 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 14.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 61.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.57% ±26.36 412 openings

7 days · 87.19% ±9.96 2,915 openings

30 days · 87.45% ±8.83 3,847 openings

since tracking started · 87.45% ±8.83 3,847 openings

62.5% 89.5% 116.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/covert?window=24h) | 412 | 89.57% ±26.4 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/covert?window=7d) | 2,915 | 87.19% ±9.96 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/covert) | 3,847 | 87.45% ±8.83 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/covert?window=all) | 3,847 | 87.45% ±8.83 | −0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 133 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,847 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $10.2K | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50,000 | $6,311 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50,000 | $5,557 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $2,767 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 25,000 | $2,142 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 12,500 | $921 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 9,091 | $609 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-well-worn) | 1 in 6,250 | $411 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 4,348 | $285 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,167 | $273 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,448 | $222 | 0.3% | 4 | 1.1 | 3.59× |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) | 1 in 3,448 | $220 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.79× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $214 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.87× |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 3,226 | $204 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,439 | $154 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.27× |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) | 1 in 2,381 | $152 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,381 | $150 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,326 | $149 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,326 | $148 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× |
| [AWP \| CMYK (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-field-tested) | 1 in 2,273 | $145 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.18× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 2,273 | $144 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.18× |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,174 | $137 | 0.3% | 4 | 1.8 | 2.26× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,128 | $136 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,128 | $135 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 2,128 | $134 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-field-tested) | 1 in 2,128 | $134 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $127 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 1,923 | $122 | 0.3% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.50× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,887 | $119 | 0.3% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.47× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,754 | $110 | 0.3% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.82× |
| [Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,613 | $101 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 1,587 | $101 | 0.3% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,562 | $99.16 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 1,538 | $96.47 | 0.3% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.60× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $92.38 | 3.9% | 15 | 35.1 | 0.43× |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $91.11 | 3.9% | 26 | 35.6 | 0.73× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 469 | $87.50 | 0.9% | 6 | 8.2 | 0.73× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 877 | $86.69 | 0.5% | 2 | 4.4 | 0.46× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 585 | $83.03 | 0.6% | 4 | 6.6 | 0.61× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 535 | $82.85 | 0.7% | 2 | 7.2 | 0.28× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 526 | $81.30 | 0.7% | 6 | 7.3 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 1 in 341 | $74.49 | 1.0% | 4 | 11.3 | 0.35× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 341 | $74.47 | 1.0% | 15 | 11.3 | 1.33× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 329 | $73.13 | 1.0% | 9 | 11.7 | 0.77× |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-field-tested) | 1 in 297 | $70.76 | 1.1% | 11 | 13.0 | 0.85× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-field-tested) | 1 in 274 | $67.04 | 1.1% | 11 | 14.0 | 0.78× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 450 | $67.00 | 0.7% | 6 | 8.5 | 0.70× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 376 | $65.37 | 0.8% | 10 | 10.2 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $64.58 | 3.9% | 67 | 50.2 | 1.33× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 412 | $62.98 | 0.7% | 2 | 9.3 | 0.21× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-minimal-wear) | 1 in 345 | $62.50 | 0.8% | 7 | 11.2 | 0.63× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 524 | $58.32 | 0.5% | 4 | 7.3 | 0.54× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 532 | $58.10 | 0.5% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-well-worn) | 1 in 433 | $57.86 | 0.6% | 4 | 8.9 | 0.45× |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-well-worn) | 1 in 386 | $57.38 | 0.7% | 9 | 10.0 | 0.90× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-well-worn) | 1 in 395 | $57.20 | 0.7% | 8 | 9.7 | 0.82× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 552 | $56.68 | 0.5% | 3 | 7.0 | 0.43× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 746 | $56.08 | 0.3% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-field-tested) | 1 in 535 | $55.32 | 0.5% | 1 | 7.2 | 0.14× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 524 | $55.21 | 0.5% | 9 | 7.3 | 1.22× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 391 | $54.95 | 0.6% | 11 | 9.8 | 1.12× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 505 | $54.81 | 0.5% | 11 | 7.6 | 1.44× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 459 | $54.51 | 0.5% | 10 | 8.4 | 1.19× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 602 | $54.19 | 0.4% | 1 | 6.4 | 0.16× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 452 | $54.15 | 0.5% | 3 | 8.5 | 0.35× |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-battle-scarred) | 1 in 341 | $53.97 | 0.7% | 4 | 11.3 | 0.35× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 505 | $53.97 | 0.5% | 2 | 7.6 | 0.26× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 478 | $53.32 | 0.5% | 4 | 8.0 | 0.50× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) | 1 in 490 | $53.18 | 0.5% | 5 | 7.8 | 0.64× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 444 | $53.10 | 0.5% | 7 | 8.7 | 0.81× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 485 | $53.04 | 0.5% | 4 | 7.9 | 0.50× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 474 | $52.52 | 0.5% | 5 | 8.1 | 0.62× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 435 | $52.50 | 0.6% | 7 | 8.8 | 0.79× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-battle-scarred) | 1 in 329 | $52.17 | 0.7% | 5 | 11.7 | 0.43× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 328 | $50.31 | 0.7% | 8 | 11.7 | 0.68× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 439 | $50.22 | 0.5% | 6 | 8.8 | 0.68× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-battle-scarred) | 1 in 424 | $49.30 | 0.5% | 8 | 9.1 | 0.88× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-well-worn) | 1 in 424 | $49.23 | 0.5% | 12 | 9.1 | 1.32× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 410 | $48.53 | 0.5% | 4 | 9.4 | 0.43× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 433 | $46.68 | 0.5% | 6 | 8.9 | 0.68× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 437 | $46.10 | 0.5% | 6 | 8.8 | 0.68× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-minimal-wear) | 1 in 474 | $44.98 | 0.4% | 4 | 8.1 | 0.49× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 541 | $44.80 | 0.4% | 3 | 7.1 | 0.42× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 450 | $43.99 | 0.4% | 4 | 8.5 | 0.47× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 323 | $43.82 | 0.6% | 6 | 11.9 | 0.50× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 379 | $42.85 | 0.5% | 6 | 10.2 | 0.59× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 365 | $42.84 | 0.5% | 8 | 10.5 | 0.76× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 426 | $42.82 | 0.5% | 5 | 9.0 | 0.55× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 318 | $42.81 | 0.6% | 10 | 12.1 | 0.83× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 365 | $42.18 | 0.5% | 9 | 10.5 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-well-worn) | 1 in 304 | $41.80 | 0.6% | 3 | 12.7 | 0.24× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 357 | $41.68 | 0.5% | 6 | 10.8 | 0.56× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-well-worn) | 1 in 300 | $41.56 | 0.6% | 11 | 12.8 | 0.86× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 352 | $41.37 | 0.5% | 7 | 10.9 | 0.64× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 392 | $41.10 | 0.5% | 3 | 9.8 | 0.31× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-well-worn) | 1 in 391 | $40.96 | 0.5% | 4 | 9.8 | 0.41× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 341 | $40.70 | 0.5% | 4 | 11.3 | 0.35× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) | 1 in 418 | $40.27 | 0.4% | 7 | 9.2 | 0.76× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 377 | $39.83 | 0.5% | 10 | 10.2 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-well-worn) | 1 in 366 | $39.59 | 0.5% | 8 | 10.5 | 0.76× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 310 | $39.44 | 0.6% | 4 | 12.4 | 0.32× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) | 1 in 348 | $38.61 | 0.5% | 13 | 11.0 | 1.18× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-well-worn) | 1 in 365 | $37.60 | 0.5% | 5 | 10.5 | 0.47× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 331 | $37.58 | 0.5% | 7 | 11.6 | 0.60× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 146 | $37.37 | 1.2% | 16 | 26.4 | 0.61× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $37.09 | 1.6% | 21 | 36.7 | 0.57× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 1 in 136 | $36.60 | 1.2% | 10 | 28.2 | 0.35× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-battle-scarred) | 1 in 142 | $35.42 | 1.1% | 26 | 27.2 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 148 | $35.40 | 1.1% | 23 | 26.0 | 0.88× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 117 | $33.91 | 1.3% | 15 | 32.8 | 0.46× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) | 1 in 122 | $32.83 | 1.2% | 20 | 31.6 | 0.63× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 77 | $31.79 | 1.9% | 22 | 50.0 | 0.44× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 101 | $31.14 | 1.4% | 25 | 38.0 | 0.66× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 113 | $30.97 | 1.3% | 20 | 34.0 | 0.59× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 113 | $30.97 | 1.3% | 24 | 34.0 | 0.71× |
| [Charm \| Quick Silver charm · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-quick-silver) | 1 in 31 | $30.71 | 4.5% | 110 | 122.1 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $28.45 | 4.5% | 116 | 131.8 | 0.88× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 79 | $27.90 | 1.6% | 30 | 48.4 | 0.62× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 175 | $26.79 | 0.7% | 7 | 22.0 | 0.32× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $24.05 | 2.4% | 119 | 83.3 | 1.43× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) | 1 in 194 | $19.53 | 0.5% | 17 | 19.9 | 0.86× |
| [Charm \| Glitter Bomb charm · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-glitter-bomb) | 1 in 37 | $14.74 | 1.8% | 112 | 103.3 | 1.08× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Serpent charm · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-serpent) | 1 in 37 | $14.12 | 1.8% | 98 | 105.1 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-well-worn) | 1 in 118 | $13.67 | 0.5% | 27 | 32.7 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $13.09 | 0.5% | 20 | 34.7 | 0.58× |
| [Sticker \| Digi-Strike sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-digi-strike) | 1 in 24 | $5.12 | 1.0% | 176 | 157.8 | 1.12× |
| [Sticker \| Eyes In The Sky sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-eyes-in-the-sky) | 1 in 16 | $1.86 | 0.5% | 260 | 236.5 | 1.10× |
| [MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $1.84 | 0.5% | 244 | 237.5 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $1.68 | 0.5% | 250 | 246.3 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.36 | 0.4% | 269 | 268.1 | 1.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Wild Berry (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-wild-berry-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $1.30 | 0.4% | 261 | 272.9 | 0.96× |
| [XM1014 \| Ziggy (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.28 | 0.4% | 263 | 274.6 | 0.96× |
| [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $1.18 | 0.4% | 283 | 285.3 | 0.99× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/covert`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $2,816 112.7x 2026-11-05 21:37 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $25.00 $617 24.68x 2026-11-08 19:57 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=covert)

[XM1014 | Ziggy (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-field-tested) [ゼロツー](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E3%82%BC%E3%83%AD%E3%83%84%E3%83%BC) $25.00 $1.28 0.05x 2026-11-11 11:02 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-factory-new) [ゼロツー](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E3%82%BC%E3%83%AD%E3%83%84%E3%83%BC) $25.00 $1.18 0.05x 2026-11-11 11:01 UTC

[XM1014 | Ziggy (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-field-tested) [ゼロツー](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E3%82%BC%E3%83%AD%E3%83%84%E3%83%BC) $25.00 $1.30 0.05x 2026-11-11 11:01 UTC

[AK-47 | Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) Hidden $25.00 $38.17 1.53x 2026-11-11 11:01 UTC

[M4A4 | Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $1.42 0.06x 2026-11-11 11:01 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Serpent charm · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-serpent) Hidden $25.00 $13.47 0.54x 2026-11-11 11:01 UTC

[Sticker | Digi-Strike sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-digi-strike) Hidden $25.00 $5.12 0.20x 2026-11-11 11:01 UTC

[AK-47 | The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-battle-scarred) Hidden $25.00 $31.60 1.26x 2026-11-11 11:01 UTC

[USP-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) Hidden $25.00 $38.15 1.53x 2026-11-11 11:01 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Wild Berry (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-wild-berry-well-worn) Hidden $25.00 $1.30 0.05x 2026-11-11 11:01 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $25.00 | 87.50% | 133 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $25.00 | 87.57% | 133 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $25.00 | 87.87% | 133 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $25.00 | 87.28% | 133 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $25.00 | 87.71% | 133 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $25.00 | 87.29% | 133 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $25.00 | 87.23% | 133 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $25.00 | 87.19% | 133 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $25.00 | 87.18% | 133 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $25.00 | 87.58% | 133 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $25.00 | 87.69% | 133 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $25.00 | 87.25% | 133 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $25.00 | 87.50% | 133 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $25.00 | 87.81% | 133 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $25.00 | 87.25% | 133 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $25.00 | 87.74% | 133 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.00 | 87.32% | 133 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 15.6% epic 0.0% red 29.2% rare 3.7% Ancient 3.0% uncommon 0.5% Covert 0.2% #eb4b4b 0.5% pink 6.1% #8847ff 6.2% Mythical 6.4% violet 14.1% blue 7.1% gray 7.4% best hit $2,816 (112.7x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt