--- title: "CRIMSON EMERALD JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "CRIMSON EMERALD JOKER ($130.43) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 82.40% over 509 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-emerald-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T23:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [CRIMSON EMERALD JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-emerald-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · CRIMSON EMERALD JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-emerald-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-emerald-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-emerald-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-emerald-joker?window=all) Price · $130.43 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 82.40% · 509 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 107 openings · below min 7 days · 471 openings · below min 30 days · 509 openings · below min since tracking started · 509 openings · below min 66.0% 100.0% 134.0% **Small sample.** 509 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-emerald-joker?window=24h) | 107 | 100.34% ±33.0 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-emerald-joker?window=7d) | 471 | 80.55% ±14.1 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-emerald-joker) | 509 | 82.40% ±13.7 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-emerald-joker?window=all) | 509 | 82.40% ±13.7 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [ZӨΗЯIK](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Z%D3%A8%CE%97%D0%AFIK) $128 $710 5.55x 2026-11-11 20:52 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [FireLitzzzz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/FireLitzzzz) $128 $710 5.55x 2026-11-11 20:21 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $128 $710 5.55x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $128 $710 5.55x 2026-11-11 20:06 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [ArTTTTTTT](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ArTTTTTTT) $130 $703 5.41x 2026-11-03 10:57 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $130 $703 5.41x 2026-11-03 10:55 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [ArTTTTTTT](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ArTTTTTTT) $130 $703 5.41x 2026-11-03 10:55 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $130 $703 5.41x 2026-11-03 10:55 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $130 $703 5.41x 2026-11-03 09:55 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $128 $697 5.45x 2026-11-11 15:31 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=crimson-emerald-joker) [M4A4 | 龍王 weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4) [F10T1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/F10T1) $127 $17.04 0.13x 2026-11-11 23:13 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-battle-scarred) [F10T1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/F10T1) $128 $14.69 0.11x 2026-11-11 23:12 UTC [MP7 | Nemesis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-field-tested) Hidden $128 $8.62 0.07x 2026-11-11 23:12 UTC [M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $128 $35.98 0.28x 2026-11-11 23:12 UTC [AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) Hidden $128 $127 0.99x 2026-11-11 23:12 UTC [AK-47 | Head Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-well-worn) Hidden $128 $34.78 0.27x 2026-11-11 23:12 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-battle-scarred) Hidden $128 $14.69 0.11x 2026-11-11 23:12 UTC [USP-S | Monster Mashup weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup) [Gustavo JR](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Gustavo%20JR) $127 $22.66 0.18x 2026-11-11 22:53 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) [ZӨΗЯIK](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Z%D3%A8%CE%97%D0%AFIK) $127 $2.30 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:53 UTC [M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $128 $35.98 0.28x 2026-11-11 20:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $710 (5.55x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 82.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $82.40 on average: an expected loss of $17.60 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt