---
title: "CRIMSON EMERALD case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CRIMSON EMERALD ($9.86) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 38 items with odds, observed 83.39% over 4,364 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-emerald
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [CRIMSON EMERALD](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-emerald)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · CRIMSON EMERALD

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-emerald?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-emerald?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-emerald) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-emerald?window=all)

Price · $9.86

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $8.63 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.39% · 4,364 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81.61% ±12.43 798 openings

7 days · 83.10% ±5.78 3,602 openings

30 days · 83.39% ±5.24 4,364 openings

since tracking started · 83.39% ±5.24 4,364 openings

68.5% 81.5% 94.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-emerald?window=24h) | 798 | 81.61% ±12.4 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-emerald?window=7d) | 3,602 | 83.10% ±5.78 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-emerald) | 4,364 | 83.39% ±5.24 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-emerald?window=all) | 4,364 | 83.39% ±5.24 | −1.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,369 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $688 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $609 | 1.4% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $595 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $317 | 1.1% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 1,667 | $162 | 1.1% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $129 | 1.1% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,250 | $119 | 1.1% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $36.64 | 8.2% | 48 | 84.8 | 0.57× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-well-worn) | 1 in 103 | $35.14 | 4.0% | 47 | 42.4 | 1.11× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $32.65 | 4.3% | 41 | 49.4 | 0.83× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 256 | $23.44 | 1.1% | 8 | 17.0 | 0.47× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 244 | $22.91 | 1.1% | 16 | 17.9 | 0.89× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) | 1 in 244 | $22.71 | 1.1% | 18 | 17.9 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Splash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $21.63 | 3.2% | 57 | 56.4 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $20.75 | 3.2% | 64 | 58.5 | 1.09× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-well-worn) | 1 in 256 | $19.83 | 0.9% | 15 | 17.0 | 0.88× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-well-worn) | 1 in 217 | $18.34 | 1.0% | 21 | 20.1 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 179 | $16.58 | 1.1% | 16 | 24.5 | 0.65× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 263 | $15.48 | 0.7% | 20 | 16.6 | 1.20× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-battle-scarred) | 1 in 154 | $15.31 | 1.2% | 30 | 28.4 | 1.06× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $15.31 | 1.1% | 15 | 26.2 | 0.57× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 152 | $15.30 | 1.2% | 23 | 28.8 | 0.80× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $15.28 | 1.1% | 38 | 26.2 | 1.45× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-field-tested) | 1 in 145 | $14.88 | 1.2% | 24 | 30.1 | 0.80× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 156 | $14.83 | 1.1% | 73 | 28.0 | 2.61× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $13.48 | 6.5% | 88 | 183.1 | 0.48× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $12.77 | 6.9% | 124 | 203.6 | 0.61× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $11.64 | 7.6% | 141 | 245.1 | 0.58× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $9.00 | 3.3% | 88 | 138.5 | 0.64× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $8.73 | 6.5% | 277 | 279.2 | 0.99× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $8.68 | 3.3% | 107 | 142.4 | 0.75× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $7.07 | 5.7% | 311 | 303.6 | 1.02× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $3.44 | 3.7% | 408 | 405.0 | 1.01× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $3.25 | 1.8% | 166 | 204.9 | 0.81× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $3.17 | 1.8% | 156 | 211.9 | 0.74× |
| [Souvenir M249 \| Humidor (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-humidor-field-tested) | 10.7% | $2.39 | 3.0% | 495 | 468.8 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) | 10.9% | $2.30 | 2.9% | 478 | 475.8 | 1.00× |
| [MP7 \| Prey (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-prey-factory-new) | 11.5% | $1.96 | 2.6% | 554 | 504.2 | 1.10× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/crimson-emerald`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [mika](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/mika) $9.86 $619 62.83x 2026-11-07 10:46 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [mika](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/mika) $9.86 $613 62.15x 2026-11-07 10:45 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=crimson-emerald)

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) [Mia Khalifa](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Mia%20Khalifa) $9.86 $2.30 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) [CARLOS vorcaro](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CARLOS%20vorcaro) $9.86 $2.30 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) [CARLOS vorcaro](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CARLOS%20vorcaro) $9.86 $2.30 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[MP7 | Nemesis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-field-tested) Hidden $9.86 $8.65 0.88x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[USP-S | Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) Hidden $9.86 $22.80 2.31x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[Souvenir M249 | Humidor (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-humidor-field-tested) Hidden $9.86 $2.39 0.24x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[MP7 | Prey (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-prey-factory-new) Hidden $9.86 $1.96 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[MP7 | Prey (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-prey-factory-new) Hidden $9.86 $1.96 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Devourer (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-minimal-wear) [Pièrre Sanchèz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pi%C3%A8rre%20Sanch%C3%A8z) $9.86 $8.73 0.89x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[USP-S | Monster Mashup weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup) [Michalgar D. Law](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Michalgar%20D.%20Law) $9.86 $23.01 2.33x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $9.86 | 87.50% | 38 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $9.86 | 87.86% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $9.86 | 87.92% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $9.86 | 87.85% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $9.86 | 87.87% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $9.86 | 87.80% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $9.86 | 87.57% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $9.86 | 87.57% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $9.86 | 88.08% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $9.86 | 87.90% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $9.86 | 87.79% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $9.86 | 88.25% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $9.86 | 87.78% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $9.86 | 87.95% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $9.86 | 87.87% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $9.86 | 87.46% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $9.86 | 87.66% | 38 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.86 | 87.85% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 0.0% covert 0.3% restricted 3.2% Ancient 1.0% red 1.1% classified 32.9% pink 11.8% blue 28.6% blueLight 4.7% light blue 4.9% gray 11.5% best hit $619 (62.83x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt