--- title: "CRIMSON RED JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "CRIMSON RED JOKER ($214.47) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 94.17% over 440 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-red-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T23:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [CRIMSON RED JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-red-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · CRIMSON RED JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-red-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-red-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-red-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-red-joker?window=all) Price · $214.47 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 94.17% · 440 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 76 openings · below min 7 days · 354 openings · below min 30 days · 440 openings · below min since tracking started · 440 openings · below min 46.5% 84.0% 121.5% **Small sample.** 440 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-red-joker?window=24h) | 76 | 80.26% ±33.1 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-red-joker?window=7d) | 354 | 101.14% ±19.6 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-red-joker) | 440 | 94.17% ±17.1 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-red-joker?window=all) | 440 | 94.17% ±17.1 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [krr666](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/krr666) $214 $1,665 7.76x 2026-11-03 11:10 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [krr666](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/krr666) $214 $1,665 7.76x 2026-11-03 11:07 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $214 $1,653 7.70x 2026-11-03 23:40 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $210 $1,607 7.65x 2026-11-09 05:07 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $210 $1,607 7.65x 2026-11-09 05:05 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $210 $1,607 7.65x 2026-11-09 05:05 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [AxiaTis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AxiaTis) $210 $1,607 7.65x 2026-11-08 22:21 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $210 $1,607 7.65x 2026-11-08 22:18 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [AxiaTis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AxiaTis) $210 $1,607 7.65x 2026-11-08 22:17 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $210 $1,607 7.65x 2026-11-08 22:17 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=crimson-red-joker) [Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $210 $15.33 0.07x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC [Sticker | Taste Buddy sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-taste-buddy) Hidden $208 $3.82 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC [Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $208 $15.82 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC [P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $210 $4.27 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:12 UTC [P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $208 $4.50 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:06 UTC [Sticker | Taste Buddy sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-taste-buddy) Hidden $208 $3.82 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:06 UTC [P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $210 $4.27 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC [AUG | Sand Storm weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $210 $22.43 0.11x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC [P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $208 $4.14 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [UMP-45 | Wild Child (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-well-worn) Hidden $208 $3.40 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,665 (7.76x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.17 on average: an expected loss of $5.83 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt