---
title: "CRIMSON RED case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CRIMSON RED ($10.25) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 62 items with odds, observed 89.66% over 5,210 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-red
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:05Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [CRIMSON RED](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-red)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · CRIMSON RED

A case on Key-Drop (ANIME CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-red?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-red?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-red) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-red?window=all)

Price · $10.25

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $8.97 from 62 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.66% · 5,210 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 79.63% ±14.03 799 openings

7 days · 87.72% ±6.10 4,275 openings

30 days · 89.66% ±5.54 5,210 openings

since tracking started · 89.66% ±5.54 5,210 openings

65.0% 80.5% 96.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-red?window=24h) | 799 | 79.63% ±14.0 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-red?window=7d) | 4,275 | 87.72% ±6.10 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-red) | 5,210 | 89.66% ±5.54 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/crimson-red?window=all) | 5,210 | 89.66% ±5.54 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 62 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,210 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,584 | 0.9% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 14,286 | $1,057 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 14,286 | $869 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 14,286 | $683 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 14,286 | $580 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 14,286 | $580 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $151 | 0.7% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.96× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $131 | 0.7% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $115 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $79.73 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 1,250 | $78.40 | 0.7% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $76.60 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $73.69 | 0.2% | 3 | 1.0 | 2.88× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $71.47 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $66.47 | 0.1% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.92× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $56.11 | 0.2% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.92× |
| [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 909 | $55.05 | 0.7% | 5 | 5.7 | 0.87× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $54.72 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $54.06 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $51.43 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $50.19 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,500 | $44.14 | 0.2% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $36.66 | 3.7% | 35 | 47.4 | 0.74× |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 110 | $36.58 | 3.7% | 36 | 47.4 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 233 | $35.50 | 1.7% | 12 | 22.4 | 0.54× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-well-worn) | 1 in 185 | $31.60 | 1.9% | 25 | 28.1 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-battle-scarred) | 1 in 179 | $30.98 | 1.9% | 21 | 29.2 | 0.72× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 179 | $30.92 | 1.9% | 29 | 29.2 | 0.99× |
| [AUG \| Sand Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 94 | $28.12 | 3.3% | 47 | 55.2 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 79 | $24.87 | 3.5% | 32 | 65.6 | 0.49× |
| [AUG \| Sand Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $22.70 | 6.7% | 74 | 138.6 | 0.53× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $16.97 | 5.9% | 81 | 162.0 | 0.50× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $15.82 | 6.3% | 86 | 186.0 | 0.46× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $15.16 | 2.3% | 64 | 71.9 | 0.89× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $14.83 | 2.4% | 75 | 75.0 | 1.00× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $14.32 | 2.3% | 59 | 76.6 | 0.77× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $14.29 | 2.4% | 63 | 77.1 | 0.82× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 137 | $13.51 | 1.1% | 33 | 38.0 | 0.87× |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66 | $13.44 | 2.3% | 58 | 79.2 | 0.73× |
| [Nova \| Bloomstick (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $13.06 | 4.7% | 186 | 168.3 | 1.11× |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $12.52 | 2.4% | 68 | 91.2 | 0.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-well-worn) | 1 in 118 | $12.48 | 1.2% | 48 | 44.3 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 116 | $12.41 | 1.2% | 34 | 44.8 | 0.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 106 | $11.89 | 1.2% | 42 | 49.0 | 0.86× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $10.03 | 2.9% | 112 | 132.9 | 0.84× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $8.83 | 0.4% | 21 | 20.8 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 128 | $5.45 | 0.5% | 27 | 40.6 | 0.66× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $4.27 | 2.5% | 237 | 278.7 | 0.85× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $4.14 | 2.5% | 273 | 281.9 | 0.97× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $4.08 | 0.7% | 60 | 83.4 | 0.72× |
| [Sticker \| Taste Buddy sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-taste-buddy) | 1 in 18 | $3.93 | 2.4% | 280 | 288.1 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) | 1 in 79 | $3.85 | 0.5% | 39 | 66.2 | 0.59× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $3.56 | 2.3% | 297 | 299.6 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $3.55 | 0.6% | 61 | 74.5 | 0.82× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $3.44 | 0.8% | 85 | 105.8 | 0.80× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $3.40 | 2.2% | 320 | 305.3 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $3.34 | 0.6% | 69 | 80.8 | 0.85× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 47 | $3.34 | 0.8% | 77 | 110.5 | 0.70× |
| [Sticker \| Chrome Dome sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chrome-dome) | 1 in 16 | $2.72 | 1.9% | 325 | 333.4 | 0.97× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $2.67 | 1.9% | 386 | 336.0 | 1.15× |
| [Souvenir SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-desert-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $2.46 | 1.8% | 354 | 347.5 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $2.30 | 1.8% | 361 | 365.2 | 0.99× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/crimson-red`, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $10.25 $1,653 161.2x 2026-11-03 18:44 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $10.25 $1,603 156.4x 2026-11-07 19:12 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $10.25 $557 54.36x 2026-11-07 19:08 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=crimson-red)

[P2000 | Wicked Sick weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick) [h](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/h) $10.25 $3.58 0.35x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC

[M4A4 | Evil Daimyo weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo) [MRX](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MRX) $10.25 $4.22 0.41x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC

[Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-desert-blossom-field-tested) [h](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/h) $10.25 $2.46 0.24x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC

[Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-desert-blossom-field-tested) [MRX](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MRX) $10.25 $2.46 0.24x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC

[M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) [MRX](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MRX) $10.25 $3.46 0.34x 2026-11-11 16:51 UTC

[P2000 | Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-battle-scarred) [h](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/h) $10.25 $3.61 0.35x 2026-11-11 16:51 UTC

[Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-desert-blossom-field-tested) Hidden $10.25 $2.40 0.23x 2026-11-11 16:51 UTC

[M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.25 $11.92 1.16x 2026-11-11 16:51 UTC

[Nova | Bloomstick (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-field-tested) Hidden $10.25 $12.74 1.24x 2026-11-11 16:51 UTC

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) Hidden $10.25 $2.30 0.22x 2026-11-11 16:51 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $10.25 | 87.50% | 62 |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $10.25 | 87.50% | 62 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $10.25 | 87.83% | 62 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $10.25 | 87.53% | 62 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $10.25 | 87.46% | 62 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $10.25 | 87.34% | 62 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $10.25 | 87.57% | 62 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $10.25 | 87.58% | 62 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $10.25 | 87.63% | 62 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $10.25 | 87.64% | 62 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $10.25 | 87.79% | 62 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $10.25 | 87.50% | 62 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $10.25 | 87.42% | 62 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $10.25 | 87.87% | 62 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $10.25 | 87.27% | 62 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $10.25 | 87.59% | 62 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $10.25 | 87.80% | 62 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.25 | 87.48% | 62 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 20.8% covert 0.4% legendary 0.0% Mil Spec Grade 0.1% Restricted 2.0% restricted 13.1% violet 21.6% Legendary 1.3% pink 25.6% Mythical 1.4% blue 13.7% best hit $1,653 (161.2x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt