---
title: "CYBER FANG case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CYBER FANG ($7.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 61 items with odds, observed 87.65% over 8,121 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cyber-fang
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:23Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [CYBER FANG](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cyber-fang)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · CYBER FANG

A case on Key-Drop (VENOM VAULT), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cyber-fang?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cyber-fang?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cyber-fang) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cyber-fang?window=all)

Price · $7.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $6.12 from 61 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.65% · 8,121 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.99% ±12.90 929 openings

7 days · 85.75% ±4.96 6,472 openings

30 days · 87.65% ±4.44 8,121 openings

since tracking started · 87.65% ±4.44 8,121 openings

79.5% 93.0% 106.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cyber-fang?window=24h) | 929 | 92.99% ±12.9 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cyber-fang?window=7d) | 6,472 | 85.75% ±4.96 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cyber-fang) | 8,121 | 87.65% ±4.44 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/cyber-fang?window=all) | 8,121 | 87.65% ±4.44 | −0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 61 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,218 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · gold · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 33,333 | $1,322 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 14,286 | $743 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $632 | 1.0% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $488 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 10,000 | $234 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $183 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14,286 | $151 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $137 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $123 | 0.6% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.62× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $79.71 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $64.53 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $54.12 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $53.08 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $50.83 | 0.2% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $44.25 | 0.1% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $41.90 | 0.2% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.62× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $38.17 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $34.85 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 217 | $23.77 | 1.8% | 36 | 37.8 | 0.95× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 110 | $23.68 | 3.5% | 11 | 74.8 | 0.15× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-field-tested) | 1 in 102 | $22.82 | 3.7% | 54 | 80.5 | 0.67× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-battle-scarred) | 1 in 161 | $20.51 | 2.1% | 33 | 51.0 | 0.65× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) | 1 in 159 | $20.37 | 2.1% | 41 | 51.8 | 0.79× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $17.29 | 1.6% | 34 | 45.2 | 0.75× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 135 | $16.97 | 2.1% | 38 | 60.8 | 0.62× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 106 | $15.11 | 2.3% | 42 | 77.2 | 0.54× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $14.63 | 2.4% | 47 | 82.2 | 0.57× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 97 | $14.38 | 2.4% | 36 | 84.6 | 0.43× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $12.41 | 9.2% | 393 | 372.3 | 1.06× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $10.30 | 3.6% | 112 | 175.9 | 0.64× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $10.03 | 2.6% | 81 | 131.5 | 0.62× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $9.95 | 3.7% | 127 | 188.2 | 0.67× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $9.79 | 3.8% | 125 | 194.8 | 0.64× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 79 | $9.64 | 2.0% | 57 | 104.4 | 0.55× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $9.41 | 1.8% | 52 | 93.7 | 0.56× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $8.20 | 3.9% | 130 | 241.6 | 0.54× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $6.82 | 1.0% | 35 | 71.5 | 0.49× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $6.74 | 1.8% | 89 | 138.1 | 0.64× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $6.67 | 1.4% | 64 | 102.7 | 0.62× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $6.48 | 1.4% | 70 | 106.8 | 0.66× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $6.08 | 2.4% | 101 | 195.6 | 0.52× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 68 | $5.99 | 1.4% | 72 | 120.0 | 0.60× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 119 | $5.99 | 0.8% | 57 | 69.0 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $5.77 | 2.0% | 85 | 171.8 | 0.49× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $5.66 | 2.0% | 100 | 175.9 | 0.57× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 70 | $5.44 | 1.3% | 60 | 117.5 | 0.51× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $5.43 | 1.3% | 60 | 117.5 | 0.51× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 64 | $5.09 | 1.3% | 80 | 129.0 | 0.62× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $4.82 | 4.3% | 477 | 449.5 | 1.06× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $4.15 | 1.1% | 102 | 129.0 | 0.79× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $4.08 | 1.0% | 72 | 117.5 | 0.61× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $4.04 | 2.3% | 168 | 281.1 | 0.60× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $4.00 | 1.1% | 87 | 136.4 | 0.64× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $3.96 | 1.1% | 71 | 138.1 | 0.51× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) | 1 in 55 | $3.44 | 1.0% | 89 | 148.7 | 0.60× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $3.34 | 1.0% | 74 | 155.3 | 0.48× |
| [P90 \| Facility Negative (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-facility-negative-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $2.14 | 2.6% | 653 | 621.3 | 1.05× |
| [MP5-SD \| Co-Processor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-co-processor-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $2.13 | 2.6% | 639 | 622.9 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.51 | 1.0% | 219 | 330.4 | 0.66× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $1.30 | 1.1% | 248 | 407.6 | 0.61× |
| [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) | 12.1% | $0.65 | 1.3% | 1,062 | 994.4 | 1.07× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/cyber-fang`, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $7.00 $745 106.4x 2026-11-11 08:17 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $7.00 $646 92.25x 2026-11-05 05:19 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [meatrisss](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/meatrisss) $7.00 $646 92.25x 2026-11-04 19:51 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.00 $497 70.96x 2026-11-05 22:42 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=cyber-fang)

[AWP | Duality weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality) [Gelik](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Gelik) $7.00 $4.66 0.67x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge) [Gelik](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Gelik) $7.00 $7.34 1.05x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC

[SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) [Gelik](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Gelik) $7.00 $0.65 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC

[SG 553 | Colony IV weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv) [Gelik](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Gelik) $7.00 $10.00 1.43x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC

[M4A4 | Cyber Security weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security) [Gelik](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Gelik) $7.00 $21.49 3.07x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge) [Gelik](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Gelik) $7.00 $7.34 1.05x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge) [Gelik](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Gelik) $7.00 $7.34 1.05x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC

[AWP | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled) [Gelik](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Gelik) $7.00 $8.19 1.17x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC

[MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-co-processor-factory-new) [Rüzgar](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/R%C3%BCzgar) $7.00 $2.13 0.30x 2026-11-11 19:14 UTC

[SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) Hidden $7.00 $0.57 0.08x 2026-11-11 19:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $7.00 | 87.50% | 61 |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $7.00 | 87.50% | 61 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $7.00 | 87.65% | 61 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $7.00 | 87.93% | 61 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $7.00 | 87.58% | 61 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $7.00 | 87.69% | 61 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $7.00 | 87.92% | 61 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $7.00 | 87.88% | 61 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $7.00 | 87.59% | 61 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $7.00 | 87.78% | 61 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $7.00 | 87.79% | 61 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $7.00 | 87.51% | 61 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $7.00 | 87.79% | 61 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $7.00 | 87.93% | 61 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $7.00 | 87.90% | 61 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $7.00 | 87.95% | 61 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $7.00 | 87.91% | 61 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.00 | 87.92% | 61 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 0.0% covert 0.1% restricted 0.0% sunny 0.0% Ancient 0.0% red 0.1% classified 18.6% rare 1.9% pink 24.4% uncommon 2.9% Legendary 9.3% #d32ee6 2.9% Classified 3.6% blue 19.7% mil spec 7.6% Mythical 4.0% violet 5.0% best hit $745 (106.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt