--- title: "DAGGERS JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "DAGGERS JOKER ($21.86) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 84.97% over 8,764 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daggers-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [DAGGERS JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daggers-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · DAGGERS JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daggers-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daggers-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daggers-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daggers-joker?window=all) Price · $21.86 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 84.97% · 8,764 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 88.18% ±5.51 1,484 openings 7 days · 85.67% ±2.53 6,681 openings 30 days · 84.97% ±2.20 8,764 openings since tracking started · 84.97% ±2.20 8,764 openings 82.0% 88.3% 94.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daggers-joker?window=24h) | 1,484 | 88.18% ±5.51 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daggers-joker?window=7d) | 6,681 | 85.67% ±2.53 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daggers-joker) | 8,764 | 84.97% ±2.20 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daggers-joker?window=all) | 8,764 | 84.97% ±2.20 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=daggers-joker) [MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-minimal-wear) [pasatalat1994](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/pasatalat1994) $22.37 $2.08 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:22 UTC [AK-47 | Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) [pasatalat1994](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/pasatalat1994) $22.37 $17.03 0.76x 2026-11-11 19:22 UTC [AK-47 | Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) Hidden $22.84 $17.58 0.77x 2026-11-11 19:22 UTC [P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.84 $12.10 0.53x 2026-11-11 19:22 UTC [MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.84 $1.99 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:22 UTC [AK-47 | Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) [pasatalat1994](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/pasatalat1994) $22.84 $17.58 0.77x 2026-11-11 19:22 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) [pasatalat1994](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/pasatalat1994) $22.37 $65.44 2.93x 2026-11-11 19:22 UTC [P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.84 $12.10 0.53x 2026-11-11 19:22 UTC [AK-47 | Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) Hidden $22.84 $17.58 0.77x 2026-11-11 19:22 UTC [MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.84 $1.99 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.97 on average: an expected loss of $15.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt