--- title: "DAGGERS case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "DAGGERS ($0.60) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 5 items with odds, observed 77.80% over 45K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daggers rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [DAGGERS](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daggers) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · DAGGERS A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daggers?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daggers?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daggers) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daggers?window=all) Price · $0.60 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.52 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.80% · 45K openings, odds method Variance · 29.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 59 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 82.61% ±16.30 4,236 openings 7 days · 78.41% ±6.08 39.1K openings 30 days · 77.80% ±5.68 45K openings since tracking started · 77.80% ±5.68 45K openings 65.5% 82.5% 99.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.93% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (72.11% – 83.48%, 44,960 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daggers?window=24h) | 4,236 | 82.61% ±16.3 | −0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daggers?window=7d) | 39.1K | 78.41% ±6.08 | −3.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daggers) | 45K | 77.80% ±5.68 | −3.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daggers?window=all) | 45K | 77.80% ±5.68 | −3.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 45K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 592 | $65.58 | 21.1% | 92 | 76.1 | 1.21× | | [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 1 in 159 | $17.55 | 21.0% | 238 | 282.8 | 0.84× | | [P250 \| Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 110 | $12.18 | 21.0% | 285 | 407.5 | 0.70× | | [MP7 \| Amberline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $2.05 | 21.0% | 1,178 | 2417.8 | 0.49× | | [XM1014 \| Irezumi (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-minimal-wear) | 92.9% | $0.09 | 15.9% | 43,231 | 41839.9 | 1.03× | Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/daggers`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 $67.69 112.8x 2026-11-07 15:55 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 $67.69 112.8x 2026-11-07 15:53 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) [holly molly](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/holly%20molly) $0.60 $67.69 112.8x 2026-11-07 13:28 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) [holly molly](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/holly%20molly) $0.60 $67.69 112.8x 2026-11-07 13:28 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) [holly molly](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/holly%20molly) $0.60 $67.69 112.8x 2026-11-07 13:27 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) [holly molly](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/holly%20molly) $0.60 $67.69 112.8x 2026-11-07 13:27 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) [holly molly](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/holly%20molly) $0.60 $67.69 112.8x 2026-11-07 13:27 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 $67.69 112.8x 2026-11-07 13:26 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) [holly molly](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/holly%20molly) $0.60 $67.69 112.8x 2026-11-07 13:26 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 $67.69 112.8x 2026-11-07 13:12 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=daggers) [XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-minimal-wear) [Pietruszka](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pietruszka) $0.60 $0.09 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-minimal-wear) [m0renaje4KT](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m0renaje4KT) $0.60 $12.18 20.30x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.60 $0.09 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-minimal-wear) [m0renaje4KT](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m0renaje4KT) $0.60 $12.10 20.17x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-minimal-wear) [vendeiro](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/vendeiro) $0.60 $0.09 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-minimal-wear) [vendeiro](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/vendeiro) $0.60 $0.09 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-minimal-wear) [Xico - esca67](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Xico%20-%20esca67) $0.60 $0.09 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC [XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-minimal-wear) [Emily Kaldwin](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Emily%20Kaldwin) $0.60 $0.09 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.60 $0.09 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC [XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-minimal-wear) [Emily Kaldwin](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Emily%20Kaldwin) $0.60 $0.09 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.60 | 87.50% | 5 | | 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.60 | 87.50% | 5 | | 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.60 | 87.49% | 5 | | 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.60 | 89.23% | 5 | | 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.60 | 87.73% | 5 | | 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.60 | 90.22% | 5 | | 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.60 | 87.73% | 5 | | 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.60 | 88.57% | 5 | | 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.60 | 88.80% | 5 | | 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.60 | 89.94% | 5 | | 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.60 | 87.68% | 5 | | 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.60 | 89.68% | 5 | | 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.60 | 86.10% | 5 | | 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.60 | 87.45% | 5 | | 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.60 | 87.49% | 5 | | 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $0.60 | 87.50% | 5 | | 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.60 | 83.52% | 5 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.60 | 86.54% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.2% pink 1.5% violet 5.4% blue 92.9% best hit $67.69 (112.8x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt