--- title: "DAPHNE JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "DAPHNE JOKER ($411.27) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 119.35% over 54 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daphne-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T18:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [DAPHNE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daphne-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · DAPHNE JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 6 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daphne-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daphne-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daphne-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daphne-joker?window=all) Price · $411.27 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 119.35% · 54 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 54 openings · below min 30 days · 54 openings · below min since tracking started · 54 openings · below min -0.5% 77.5% 155.5% **Small sample.** 54 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daphne-joker?window=24h) | 4 | 60.39% ±82.3 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daphne-joker?window=7d) | 54 | 119.35% ±35.7 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daphne-joker) | 54 | 119.35% ±35.7 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daphne-joker?window=all) | 54 | 119.35% ±35.7 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $411 $1,696 4.12x 2026-11-06 03:08 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $411 $1,696 4.12x 2026-11-06 03:08 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $411 $1,696 4.12x 2026-11-06 03:08 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $411 $1,661 4.04x 2026-11-06 03:08 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $411 $1,661 4.04x 2026-11-06 03:08 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $411 $1,661 4.04x 2026-11-06 03:08 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $411 $1,661 4.04x 2026-11-06 03:08 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $411 $1,661 4.04x 2026-11-06 03:08 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $411 $753 1.83x 2026-11-06 03:09 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $411 $753 1.83x 2026-11-06 03:08 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=daphne-joker) [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [G1G0 onte tap](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/G1G0%20onte%20tap) $409 $740 1.81x 2026-11-11 17:22 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-stained-field-tested) [G1G0 onte tap](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/G1G0%20onte%20tap) $409 $222 0.54x 2026-11-11 17:22 UTC [M4A1-S | Stratosphere weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere) [G1G0 onte tap](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/G1G0%20onte%20tap) $409 $3.98 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:22 UTC [SSG 08 | Bloodshot weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot) [G1G0 onte tap](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/G1G0%20onte%20tap) $409 $21.59 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:22 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $411 $230 0.56x 2026-11-06 03:09 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-stained-field-tested) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $411 $234 0.57x 2026-11-06 03:09 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $411 $161 0.39x 2026-11-06 03:09 UTC [M4A1-S | Stratosphere weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $411 $3.93 0.01x 2026-11-06 03:09 UTC [M4A1-S | Printstream weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $411 $231 0.56x 2026-11-06 03:09 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $411 $753 1.83x 2026-11-06 03:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,696 (4.12x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 119.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $119.35 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt