---
title: "DAPHNE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "DAPHNE ($80.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 33 items with odds, observed 92.53% over 1,308 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daphne
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [DAPHNE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daphne)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · DAPHNE

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daphne?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daphne?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daphne) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daphne?window=all)

Price · $80.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $70.00 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.53% · 1,308 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 53.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 26 openings · below min

7 days · 90.60% ±7.64 1,142 openings

30 days · 92.53% ±7.14 1,308 openings

since tracking started · 92.53% ±7.14 1,308 openings

43.0% 94.5% 146.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daphne?window=24h) | 26 | 94.53% ±50.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daphne?window=7d) | 1,142 | 90.60% ±7.64 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daphne) | 1,308 | 92.53% ±7.14 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/daphne?window=all) | 1,308 | 92.53% ±7.14 | +1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,308 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,707 | 2.4% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.53× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,685 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 370 | $744 | 2.9% | 5 | 3.5 | 1.42× |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $395 | 2.8% | 11 | 6.5 | 1.68× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $393 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 313 | $273 | 1.2% | 1 | 4.2 | 0.24× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 57 | $257 | 6.5% | 23 | 23.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $225 | 6.5% | 17 | 26.3 | 0.65× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 50 | $225 | 6.5% | 29 | 26.3 | 1.10× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 185 | $209 | 1.6% | 5 | 7.1 | 0.71× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 182 | $207 | 1.6% | 5 | 7.2 | 0.70× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 179 | $190 | 1.5% | 8 | 7.3 | 1.09× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 152 | $172 | 1.6% | 6 | 8.6 | 0.70× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-minimal-wear) | 1 in 208 | $160 | 1.1% | 10 | 6.3 | 1.59× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 42 | $157 | 5.4% | 33 | 31.3 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 116 | $153 | 1.9% | 9 | 11.2 | 0.80× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 40 | $150 | 5.4% | 32 | 32.8 | 0.97× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $145 | 5.4% | 24 | 33.9 | 0.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $145 | 2.0% | 17 | 12.6 | 1.35× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $132 | 5.4% | 53 | 37.3 | 1.42× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-well-worn) | 12.3% | $92.75 | 16.4% | 120 | 161.4 | 0.74× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) | 12.4% | $92.38 | 16.4% | 95 | 162.7 | 0.58× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $70.80 | 2.0% | 26 | 26.0 | 1.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $21.51 | 0.4% | 7 | 17.5 | 0.40× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 71 | $20.91 | 0.4% | 5 | 18.3 | 0.27× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $20.70 | 0.4% | 13 | 18.7 | 0.70× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $4.51 | 0.2% | 32 | 39.1 | 0.82× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $4.08 | 0.2% | 35 | 45.8 | 0.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $3.20 | 0.2% | 39 | 67.6 | 0.58× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 103 | $2.60 | 0.0% | 11 | 12.7 | 0.87× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-well-worn) | 11.0% | $0.57 | 0.1% | 104 | 144.0 | 0.72× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) | 11.0% | $0.57 | 0.1% | 118 | 144.0 | 0.82× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-battle-scarred) | 12.4% | $0.53 | 0.1% | 127 | 162.2 | 0.78× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/daphne`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $80.00 $1,704 21.30x 2026-11-04 13:18 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $80.00 $1,661 20.76x 2026-11-06 13:03 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $80.00 $1,656 20.70x 2026-11-05 10:10 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [CODE PEACEMAKER = 6X KNIFES](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CODE%20PEACEMAKER%20%3D%206X%20KNIFES) $80.00 $753 9.41x 2026-11-06 13:13 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [CODE PEACEMAKER = 6X KNIFES](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CODE%20PEACEMAKER%20%3D%206X%20KNIFES) $80.00 $753 9.41x 2026-11-06 13:08 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [kOUKi-](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kOUKi-) $80.00 $739 9.24x 2026-11-10 12:20 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $80.00 $739 9.24x 2026-11-09 19:11 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [kOUKi-](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kOUKi-) $80.00 $722 9.02x 2026-11-10 12:20 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=daphne)

[USP-S | Royal Guard weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard) [CARLOS vorcaro](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CARLOS%20vorcaro) $80.00 $0.61 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Guard (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-well-worn) [CARLOS vorcaro](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CARLOS%20vorcaro) $80.00 $0.65 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) Hidden $80.00 $0.59 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Guard (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-well-worn) Hidden $80.00 $0.65 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $80.00 $150 1.87x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) Hidden $80.00 $137 1.71x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[AK-47 | B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) Hidden $80.00 $94.81 1.19x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Guard weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard) [Lupix](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Lupix) $80.00 $0.61 0.01x 2026-11-11 03:00 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Guard weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard) [hwng](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/hwng) $80.00 $0.61 0.01x 2026-11-11 01:08 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Guard weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard) [NIEPRZEWIDYWALNAELZBIETA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/NIEPRZEWIDYWALNAELZBIETA) $80.00 $0.61 0.01x 2026-11-11 00:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $80.00 | 87.50% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $80.00 | 87.55% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $80.00 | 87.76% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $80.00 | 87.58% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $80.00 | 87.55% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $80.00 | 87.62% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $80.00 | 87.31% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $80.00 | 87.67% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $80.00 | 87.56% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $80.00 | 87.46% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $80.00 | 87.77% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $80.00 | 87.32% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $80.00 | 87.27% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $80.00 | 87.51% | 33 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $80.00 | 87.62% | 33 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $80.00 | 87.54% | 33 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $80.00 | 87.66% | 33 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $80.00 | 87.62% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 29.8% restricted 23.5% #d32ee6 0.5% legendary 0.0% gold 2.0% red 0.7% Ancient 0.5% sunny 2.9% rare 15.4% classified 9.3% Classified 3.5% Mythical 1.0% uncommon 11.0% best hit $1,704 (21.30x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt