--- title: "DART JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "DART JOKER ($4.65) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 86.87% over 12.3K openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dart-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T17:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [DART JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dart-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · DART JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dart-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dart-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dart-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dart-joker?window=all) Price · $4.65 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 86.87% · 12.3K openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 84.29% ±3.38 1,377 openings 7 days · 86.74% ±1.24 10.1K openings 30 days · 86.87% ±1.12 12.3K openings since tracking started · 86.87% ±1.12 12.3K openings 80.5% 84.5% 88.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dart-joker?window=24h) | 1,377 | 84.29% ±3.38 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dart-joker?window=7d) | 10.1K | 86.74% ±1.24 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dart-joker) | 12.3K | 86.87% ±1.12 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dart-joker?window=all) | 12.3K | 86.87% ±1.12 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=dart-joker) [AUG | Lapis Lazuli weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lapis-lazuli) [DANIEEE. AQL MUTAJAMMID](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/DANIEEE.%20AQL%20MUTAJAMMID) $4.55 $5.30 1.16x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC [UMP-45 | Exposure weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure) [Groot](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Groot) $4.55 $1.43 0.31x 2026-11-11 16:40 UTC [UMP-45 | Exposure (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-minimal-wear) [Groot](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Groot) $4.64 $1.45 0.31x 2026-11-11 16:39 UTC [AUG | Lapis Lazuli (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lapis-lazuli-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.64 $10.98 2.37x 2026-11-11 16:39 UTC [AUG | Lapis Lazuli (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lapis-lazuli-well-worn) Hidden $4.64 $2.61 0.56x 2026-11-11 16:39 UTC [UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.64 $2.28 0.49x 2026-11-11 16:39 UTC [MP9 | Goo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-factory-new) Hidden $4.64 $3.64 0.78x 2026-11-11 16:39 UTC [UMP-45 | Exposure (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.64 $1.22 0.26x 2026-11-11 16:39 UTC [UMP-45 | Exposure weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure) [Groot](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Groot) $4.55 $1.43 0.31x 2026-11-11 16:39 UTC [UMP-45 | Exposure (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-field-tested) [Groot](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Groot) $4.64 $1.19 0.26x 2026-11-11 16:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.87 on average: an expected loss of $13.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt