---
title: "DART case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "DART ($2.80) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 43 items with odds, observed 85.15% over 14.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dart
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [DART](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dart)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · DART

A case on Key-Drop (HOLO CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dart?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dart?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dart) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dart?window=all)

Price · $2.80

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $2.45 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.15% · 14.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83.96% ±3.26 1,760 openings

7 days · 85.63% ±1.19 11.9K openings

30 days · 85.15% ±1.07 14.8K openings

since tracking started · 85.15% ±1.07 14.8K openings

80.0% 84.3% 88.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.81% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.08% – 86.21%, 14,821 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dart?window=24h) | 1,760 | 83.96% ±3.26 | −2.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dart?window=7d) | 11.9K | 85.63% ±1.19 | −3.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dart) | 14.8K | 85.15% ±1.07 | −4.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/dart?window=all) | 14.8K | 85.15% ±1.07 | −4.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AUG \| Lapis Lazuli (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lapis-lazuli-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,632 | $10.95 | 0.2% | 24 | 5.6 | 4.26× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 329 | $10.60 | 1.3% | 76 | 45.1 | 1.69× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $8.74 | 11.9% | 250 | 493.7 | 0.51× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $6.93 | 7.6% | 275 | 397.9 | 0.69× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $6.39 | 7.6% | 411 | 431.6 | 0.95× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-minimal-wear) | 1 in 139 | $6.10 | 1.8% | 62 | 106.9 | 0.58× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-factory-new) | 1 in 118 | $4.70 | 1.6% | 69 | 126.2 | 0.55× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-factory-new) | 1 in 99 | $4.34 | 1.8% | 182 | 150.3 | 1.21× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $4.11 | 7.1% | 624 | 624.9 | 1.00× |
| [AUG \| Lapis Lazuli (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lapis-lazuli-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $4.08 | 2.4% | 196 | 213.9 | 0.92× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $4.02 | 2.5% | 203 | 228.9 | 0.89× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-factory-new) | 1 in 81 | $3.59 | 1.8% | 160 | 183.7 | 0.87× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) | 1 in 51 | $3.55 | 2.9% | 322 | 293.6 | 1.10× |
| [XM1014 \| Ziggy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-factory-new) | 1 in 137 | $2.96 | 0.9% | 105 | 108.1 | 0.97× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $2.84 | 2.6% | 214 | 326.6 | 0.66× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $2.67 | 2.9% | 272 | 395.3 | 0.69× |
| [AUG \| Lapis Lazuli (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lapis-lazuli-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $2.60 | 4.0% | 324 | 563.5 | 0.57× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-well-worn) | 1 in 35 | $2.55 | 3.0% | 259 | 428.3 | 0.60× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $2.48 | 3.0% | 260 | 438.3 | 0.59× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-factory-new) | 1 in 112 | $2.31 | 0.8% | 82 | 131.8 | 0.62× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-factory-new) | 1 in 110 | $2.25 | 0.8% | 85 | 135.2 | 0.63× |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $1.72 | 1.8% | 242 | 388.0 | 0.62× |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $1.57 | 1.9% | 270 | 440.8 | 0.61× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $1.56 | 1.6% | 264 | 380.1 | 0.69× |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $1.54 | 1.9% | 267 | 452.9 | 0.59× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $1.39 | 1.0% | 169 | 268.2 | 0.63× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $1.30 | 1.8% | 301 | 490.6 | 0.61× |
| [XM1014 \| Ziggy (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $1.29 | 1.4% | 252 | 399.4 | 0.63× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $1.29 | 1.8% | 290 | 495.9 | 0.58× |
| [XM1014 \| Ziggy (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $1.28 | 1.4% | 227 | 403.9 | 0.56× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1.28 | 1.0% | 184 | 297.9 | 0.62× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $1.27 | 1.1% | 188 | 301.1 | 0.62× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.24 | 3.6% | 668 | 1055.5 | 0.63× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 47 | $1.24 | 1.1% | 217 | 314.8 | 0.69× |
| [XM1014 \| Ziggy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $1.22 | 1.5% | 287 | 431.9 | 0.66× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $1.22 | 1.1% | 191 | 322.0 | 0.59× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-battle-scarred) | 1 in 47 | $1.22 | 1.1% | 236 | 318.5 | 0.74× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $1.18 | 1.1% | 212 | 333.7 | 0.64× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $1.16 | 1.1% | 214 | 345.6 | 0.62× |
| [P250 \| Forest Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-forest-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $1.04 | 1.0% | 225 | 362.3 | 0.62× |
| [P250 \| Forest Night (Well-Worn) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-forest-night-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $1.00 | 1.1% | 236 | 382.8 | 0.62× |
| [P250 \| Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-forest-night-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $0.97 | 1.1% | 276 | 399.4 | 0.69× |
| [P250 \| Forest Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-forest-night-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $0.95 | 1.1% | 275 | 411.3 | 0.67× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/dart`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=dart)

[UMP-45 | Exposure weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure) [????????????????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $2.80 $1.33 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[MP9 | Goo weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo) [????????????????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $2.80 $1.59 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[UMP-45 | Exposure (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-factory-new) [????????????????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $2.80 $2.19 0.78x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[UMP-45 | Exposure (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-well-worn) Hidden $2.80 $1.18 0.42x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[P250 | Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-forest-night-field-tested) Hidden $2.80 $0.98 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[XM1014 | Ziggy (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-field-tested) Hidden $2.80 $1.30 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[SG 553 | Phantom (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-well-worn) Hidden $2.80 $1.22 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[P250 | Forest Night (Well-Worn) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-forest-night-well-worn) Hidden $2.80 $1.00 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[MP9 | Goo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-field-tested) Hidden $2.80 $1.31 0.47x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[MP9 | Goo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-field-tested) [????????????????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $2.80 $1.31 0.47x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $2.80 | 87.50% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $2.80 | 88.08% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $2.80 | 87.91% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $2.80 | 87.57% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $2.80 | 88.02% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.80 | 87.93% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $2.80 | 87.83% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $2.80 | 88.03% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $2.80 | 88.01% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $2.80 | 88.01% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $2.80 | 87.43% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $2.80 | 87.77% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $2.80 | 87.90% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $2.80 | 87.81% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $2.80 | 87.59% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $2.80 | 88.00% | 43 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.80 | 88.14% | 43 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed violet 44.4% classified 0.3% Legendary 3.3% pink 14.1% restricted 10.8% #8847ff 2.9% Mythical 11.5% Restricted 2.2% gray 10.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt