---
title: "DAVID case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "DAVID ($390.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 36 items with odds, observed 88.23% over 2,113 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/david
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [DAVID](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/david)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · DAVID

A case on Key-Drop (HOLO CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/david?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/david?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/david) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/david?window=all)

Price · $390.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $341.26 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.23% · 2,113 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.75% ±7.27 307 openings

7 days · 87.71% ±3.12 1,880 openings

30 days · 88.23% ±2.95 2,113 openings

since tracking started · 88.23% ±2.95 2,113 openings

81.0% 88.8% 96.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/david?window=24h) | 307 | 88.75% ±7.27 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/david?window=7d) | 1,880 | 87.71% ±3.12 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/david) | 2,113 | 88.23% ±2.95 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/david?window=all) | 2,113 | 88.23% ±2.95 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,113 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $9,437 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 3,333 | $5,414 | 0.5% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,439 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,812 | 0.1% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 145 | $1,208 | 2.4% | 22 | 14.6 | 1.51× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) | 1 in 137 | $1,138 | 2.4% | 17 | 15.4 | 1.10× |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $1,109 | 2.4% | 22 | 15.8 | 1.39× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $868 | 3.7% | 27 | 30.4 | 0.89× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 65 | $810 | 3.7% | 33 | 32.5 | 1.01× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 57 | $710 | 3.7% | 43 | 37.2 | 1.16× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $666 | 3.6% | 46 | 39.5 | 1.16× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-battle-scarred) | 1 in 64 | $525 | 2.4% | 18 | 33.0 | 0.55× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 22 | $510 | 6.9% | 64 | 97.8 | 0.65× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $418 | 6.9% | 75 | 119.4 | 0.63× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $382 | 9.6% | 185 | 181.1 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $375 | 1.6% | 15 | 30.4 | 0.49× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $360 | 9.6% | 114 | 192.3 | 0.59× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $339 | 3.5% | 43 | 74.4 | 0.58× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $312 | 3.4% | 178 | 79.4 | 2.24× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $280 | 2.1% | 26 | 55.1 | 0.47× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $277 | 3.3% | 113 | 85.4 | 1.32× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $266 | 3.2% | 85 | 87.5 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 101 | $262 | 0.8% | 18 | 20.9 | 0.86× |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $223 | 0.9% | 22 | 29.2 | 0.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $222 | 3.0% | 113 | 97.4 | 1.16× |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $220 | 0.9% | 17 | 29.8 | 0.57× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $215 | 3.0% | 93 | 99.3 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 70 | $209 | 0.9% | 21 | 30.0 | 0.70× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $206 | 0.9% | 26 | 30.6 | 0.85× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $204 | 1.4% | 32 | 50.9 | 0.63× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $204 | 2.9% | 115 | 102.7 | 1.12× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $201 | 1.5% | 46 | 52.0 | 0.88× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $193 | 1.8% | 55 | 67.4 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $172 | 2.7% | 122 | 113.5 | 1.08× |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $169 | 1.1% | 37 | 45.6 | 0.81× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $156 | 2.6% | 118 | 120.7 | 0.98× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/david`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [MonarchBeauty](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MonarchBeauty) $390 $5,589 14.33x 2026-11-07 04:03 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [MonarchBeauty](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MonarchBeauty) $390 $5,589 14.33x 2026-11-07 04:03 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $390 $1,895 4.86x 2026-11-05 15:05 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $390 $1,875 4.81x 2026-11-09 12:51 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) Hidden $390 $1,436 3.68x 2026-11-03 17:41 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) Hidden $390 $1,335 3.42x 2026-11-05 14:22 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) Hidden $390 $1,334 3.42x 2026-11-05 21:20 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) Hidden $390 $1,334 3.42x 2026-11-05 20:52 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) Hidden $390 $1,316 3.37x 2026-11-03 00:35 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) Hidden $390 $1,313 3.37x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=david)

[M4A4 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) [kaina](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kaina) $390 $215 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) [kaina](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kaina) $390 $156 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $390 $649 1.66x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $390 $200 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $390 $649 1.66x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[M4A4 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) [kaina](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kaina) $390 $214 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) [kaina](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kaina) $390 $152 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-minimal-wear) Hidden $390 $817 2.10x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) Hidden $390 $1,128 2.89x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[★ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $390 $329 0.84x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $390 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $390 | 87.71% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $390 | 87.71% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $390 | 87.76% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $390 | 87.74% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $390 | 87.75% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $390 | 87.67% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $390 | 87.72% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $390 | 87.93% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $390 | 87.78% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $390 | 87.71% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $390 | 87.63% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $390 | 87.82% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $390 | 87.76% | 36 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $390 | 87.99% | 36 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $390 | 87.72% | 36 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $390 | 87.89% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.0% covert 66.2% extraordinary 16.5% gold 7.5% epic 8.4% red 1.4% best hit $5,589 (14.33x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt