--- title: "DEEP DIVE JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "DEEP DIVE JOKER ($60.03) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 82.82% over 2,439 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/deep-dive-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T20:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [DEEP DIVE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/deep-dive-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · DEEP DIVE JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/deep-dive-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/deep-dive-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/deep-dive-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/deep-dive-joker?window=all) Price · $60.03 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 82.82% · 2,439 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 80.17% ±11.27 1,381 openings 7 days · 79.47% ±9.22 2,005 openings 30 days · 82.82% ±8.50 2,439 openings since tracking started · 82.82% ±8.50 2,439 openings 68.5% 80.3% 92.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/deep-dive-joker?window=24h) | 1,381 | 80.17% ±11.3 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/deep-dive-joker?window=7d) | 2,005 | 79.47% ±9.22 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/deep-dive-joker) | 2,439 | 82.82% ±8.50 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/deep-dive-joker?window=all) | 2,439 | 82.82% ±8.50 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $61.07 $606 9.92x 2026-11-03 15:38 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $61.07 $606 9.92x 2026-11-03 15:31 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $61.07 $606 9.92x 2026-11-03 12:56 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $61.07 $606 9.92x 2026-11-03 12:16 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Hola soy Javi ♡](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hola%20soy%20Javi%20%E2%99%A1) $59.99 $603 10.06x 2026-11-07 22:32 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [√Sir Gregor Clegane](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%88%9ASir%20Gregor%20Clegane) $59.99 $603 10.06x 2026-11-05 16:32 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $59.99 $603 10.06x 2026-11-05 13:33 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Farkon Oficial](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Farkon%20Oficial) $60.60 $603 9.95x 2026-11-04 12:55 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [guille1603\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/guille1603_) $60.60 $603 9.95x 2026-11-04 11:29 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $60.60 $603 9.95x 2026-11-04 06:37 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=deep-dive-joker) [AK-47 | Searing Rage weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage) [Kazaya](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Kazaya) $60.48 $5.50 0.09x 2026-11-11 20:37 UTC [Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) [Anton](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Anton) $60.48 $7.14 0.12x 2026-11-11 20:00 UTC [Sticker | Taste Buddy sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-taste-buddy) [Anton](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Anton) $60.48 $3.82 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC [UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-well-worn) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $60.48 $5.59 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $60.48 $594 9.82x 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC [UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-well-worn) [not awp abuser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/not%20awp%20abuser) $58.95 $5.25 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC [Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) Hidden $58.95 $7.32 0.12x 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC [Zeus x27 | Olympus (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-field-tested) Hidden $58.95 $3.82 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC [P2000 | Obsidian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-battle-scarred) Hidden $58.95 $2.04 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC [FAMAS | Djinn (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-well-worn) Hidden $58.95 $13.54 0.23x 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $606 (9.92x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 82.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $82.82 on average: an expected loss of $17.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt