---
title: "DEEP DIVE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "DEEP DIVE ($4.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 44 items with odds, observed 86.41% over 31.9K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/deep-dive
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [DEEP DIVE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/deep-dive)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · DEEP DIVE

A case on Key-Drop (WILD CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/deep-dive?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/deep-dive?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/deep-dive) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/deep-dive?window=all)

Price · $4.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $3.50 from 44 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.41% · 31.9K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.26% ±2.90 5,172 openings

7 days · 86.03% ±1.30 26.2K openings

30 days · 86.41% ±1.18 31.9K openings

since tracking started · 86.41% ±1.18 31.9K openings

81.5% 85.3% 89.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.86% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (85.23% – 87.59%, 31,905 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/deep-dive?window=24h) | 5,172 | 85.26% ±2.90 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/deep-dive?window=7d) | 26.2K | 86.03% ±1.30 | −2.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/deep-dive) | 31.9K | 86.41% ±1.18 | −2.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/deep-dive?window=all) | 31.9K | 86.41% ±1.18 | −2.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 50,000 | $588 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 33,333 | $394 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $132 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $126 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $82.85 | 0.1% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $70.80 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 14,286 | $58.32 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20,000 | $54.51 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 33,333 | $54.24 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $54.15 | 0.1% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33,333 | $53.21 | 0.0% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $51.05 | 0.1% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $31.14 | 0.0% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $23.31 | 0.1% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $22.92 | 0.0% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20,000 | $22.06 | 0.0% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 455 | $15.31 | 1.0% | 41 | 70.3 | 0.58× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 455 | $15.28 | 1.0% | 52 | 70.3 | 0.74× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $13.79 | 2.0% | 134 | 159.8 | 0.84× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $13.67 | 2.0% | 162 | 159.8 | 1.01× |
| [Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) | 1 in 179 | $12.10 | 1.9% | 190 | 179.0 | 1.06× |
| [Sticker \| Kawaii T sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-t) | 1 in 49 | $8.44 | 4.9% | 610 | 655.3 | 0.93× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $7.07 | 4.9% | 787 | 783.1 | 1.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $6.98 | 4.9% | 682 | 792.7 | 0.86× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-well-worn) | 1 in 101 | $5.59 | 1.6% | 190 | 316.5 | 0.60× |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-minimal-wear) | 1 in 189 | $5.32 | 0.8% | 104 | 169.4 | 0.61× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $5.30 | 1.7% | 190 | 351.6 | 0.54× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $5.25 | 4.9% | 1,023 | 1051.6 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 86 | $5.16 | 1.7% | 249 | 370.8 | 0.67× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $4.27 | 4.9% | 1,255 | 1294.6 | 0.97× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $4.11 | 4.9% | 1,142 | 1345.7 | 0.85× |
| [Sticker \| Taste Buddy sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-taste-buddy) | 1 in 16 | $3.96 | 7.3% | 1,992 | 2049.0 | 0.97× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $3.64 | 6.9% | 2,192 | 2119.3 | 1.03× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.67 | 5.7% | 2,442 | 2400.6 | 1.02× |
| [Souvenir MP9 \| Music Box (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-music-box-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.40 | 5.4% | 2,593 | 2502.9 | 1.04× |
| [Souvenir SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-desert-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.40 | 5.4% | 2,539 | 2502.9 | 1.01× |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $2.39 | 1.6% | 570 | 767.2 | 0.74× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $2.30 | 5.2% | 2,650 | 2547.6 | 1.04× |
| [Sticker \| Lorena sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lorena) | 1 in 12 | $2.25 | 5.2% | 2,509 | 2570.0 | 0.98× |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $2.11 | 2.0% | 700 | 1083.6 | 0.65× |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-well-worn) | 1 in 35 | $2.11 | 1.7% | 418 | 911.0 | 0.46× |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $2.09 | 1.7% | 703 | 923.8 | 0.76× |
| [P250 \| Exchanger (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-exchanger-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $2.07 | 4.9% | 2,730 | 2656.3 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $2.04 | 2.1% | 733 | 1138.0 | 0.64× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/deep-dive`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $4.00 $601 150.3x 2026-11-05 15:11 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $4.00 $392 98.10x 2026-11-04 10:36 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=deep-dive)

[Zeus x27 | Olympus (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-field-tested) [denis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/denis) $4.00 $3.64 0.91x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[P250 | Exchanger (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-exchanger-factory-new) [denis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/denis) $4.00 $2.07 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[P2000 | Obsidian weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian) [denis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/denis) $4.00 $2.19 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-desert-blossom-field-tested) [denis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/denis) $4.00 $2.40 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) [denis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/denis) $4.00 $2.30 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $4.14 1.04x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Olympus (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-field-tested) [denis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/denis) $4.00 $3.56 0.89x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) Hidden $4.00 $7.32 1.83x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[P250 | Exchanger (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-exchanger-factory-new) [denis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/denis) $4.00 $2.07 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[P2000 | Obsidian (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-well-worn) [denis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/denis) $4.00 $2.11 0.53x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $4.00 | 87.50% | 44 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $4.00 | 87.69% | 44 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $4.00 | 87.86% | 44 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $4.00 | 87.82% | 44 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $4.00 | 87.90% | 44 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $4.00 | 87.71% | 44 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $4.00 | 87.83% | 44 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $4.00 | 87.81% | 44 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $4.00 | 88.02% | 44 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $4.00 | 87.95% | 44 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $4.00 | 88.12% | 44 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $4.00 | 87.98% | 44 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $4.00 | 88.24% | 44 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $4.00 | 87.82% | 44 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $4.00 | 87.77% | 44 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $4.00 | 87.97% | 44 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.00 | 87.96% | 44 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% gold 0.0% sunny 0.0% covert 0.0% pink 25.2% classified 7.1% blue 34.9% violet 19.5% Mythical 0.5% #d32ce6 1.2% restricted 8.1% #8847ff 3.4% best hit $601 (150.3x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt