--- title: "DESERT EAGLE JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "DESERT EAGLE JOKER ($103.13) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 84.50% over 972 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/desert-eagle-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T17:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [DESERT EAGLE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/desert-eagle-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · DESERT EAGLE JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/desert-eagle-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/desert-eagle-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/desert-eagle-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/desert-eagle-joker?window=all) Price · $103.13 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 84.50% · 972 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 178 openings · below min 7 days · 728 openings · below min 30 days · 972 openings · below min since tracking started · 972 openings · below min 50.0% 73.5% 97.0% **Small sample.** 972 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/desert-eagle-joker?window=24h) | 178 | 73.50% ±22.8 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/desert-eagle-joker?window=7d) | 728 | 83.41% ±12.5 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/desert-eagle-joker) | 972 | 84.50% ±10.9 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/desert-eagle-joker?window=all) | 972 | 84.50% ±10.9 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [76561198257999306](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/76561198257999306) $103 $809 7.84x 2026-11-03 12:10 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [76561198257999306](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/76561198257999306) $103 $809 7.84x 2026-11-03 12:08 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $103 $809 7.84x 2026-11-03 10:07 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $103 $802 7.79x 2026-11-04 03:11 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $103 $802 7.79x 2026-11-04 03:10 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $103 $802 7.79x 2026-11-04 03:10 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $103 $802 7.79x 2026-11-04 03:10 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [Amalgama](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Amalgama) $103 $801 7.74x 2026-11-07 18:32 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [wam](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/wam) $103 $801 7.74x 2026-11-07 11:33 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [wam](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/wam) $103 $801 7.74x 2026-11-07 11:31 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=desert-eagle-joker) [Desert Eagle | Conspiracy weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy) [kacper hehe. \[\*\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kacper%20hehe.%20%5B*%5D-76561198197837162) $104 $27.10 0.26x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blue Ply weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply) [kacper hehe. \[\*\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kacper%20hehe.%20%5B*%5D-76561198197837162) $104 $2.28 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mulberry weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry) [kacper hehe. \[\*\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kacper%20hehe.%20%5B*%5D-76561198197837162) $104 $3.30 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mulberry weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry) [kacper hehe. \[\*\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kacper%20hehe.%20%5B*%5D-76561198197837162) $104 $3.30 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [Desert Eagle | Light Rail weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail) [kacper hehe. \[\*\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kacper%20hehe.%20%5B*%5D-76561198197837162) $104 $4.89 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) [kacper hehe. \[\*\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kacper%20hehe.%20%5B*%5D-76561198197837162) $104 $235 2.26x 2026-11-11 17:12 UTC [Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) Hidden $102 $82.41 0.81x 2026-11-11 17:12 UTC [Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) Hidden $102 $557 5.47x 2026-11-11 17:12 UTC [Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) [kacper hehe. \[\*\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kacper%20hehe.%20%5B*%5D-76561198197837162) $102 $23.09 0.23x 2026-11-11 17:12 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) Hidden $102 $6.60 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $809 (7.84x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.50 on average: an expected loss of $15.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt