--- title: "DIABLO JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "DIABLO JOKER ($5.80) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 84.21% over 7,928 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/diablo-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T19:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [DIABLO JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/diablo-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · DIABLO JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/diablo-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/diablo-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/diablo-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/diablo-joker?window=all) Price · $5.80 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 84.21% · 7,928 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 694 openings · below min 7 days · 85.66% ±4.47 6,243 openings 30 days · 84.21% ±3.90 7,928 openings since tracking started · 84.21% ±3.90 7,928 openings 66.5% 79.5% 92.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/diablo-joker?window=24h) | 694 | 79.61% ±12.3 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/diablo-joker?window=7d) | 6,243 | 85.66% ±4.47 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/diablo-joker) | 7,928 | 84.21% ±3.90 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/diablo-joker?window=all) | 7,928 | 84.21% ±3.90 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=diablo-joker) [M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) [phew phew](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/phew%20phew) $6.14 $16.14 2.63x 2026-11-11 19:26 UTC [Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) [phew phew](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/phew%20phew) $6.14 $0.15 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:26 UTC [M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) [phew phew](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/phew%20phew) $5.83 $15.79 2.71x 2026-11-11 19:26 UTC [AWP | Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) Hidden $5.83 $3.69 0.63x 2026-11-11 19:26 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) Hidden $5.83 $1.90 0.33x 2026-11-11 19:26 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.83 $1.95 0.33x 2026-11-11 19:26 UTC [SG 553 | Danger Close (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.83 $0.29 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:26 UTC [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) Hidden $5.83 $3.07 0.53x 2026-11-11 19:26 UTC [MP5-SD | Acid Wash (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-acid-wash-well-worn) Hidden $5.83 $1.25 0.21x 2026-11-11 19:26 UTC [M249 | Magma (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-magma-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.83 $1.69 0.29x 2026-11-11 19:26 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.21 on average: an expected loss of $15.79 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt