---
title: "DIABLO case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "DIABLO ($1.12) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 40 items with odds, observed 84.22% over 8,459 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/diablo
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [DIABLO](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/diablo)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · DIABLO

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/diablo?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/diablo?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/diablo) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/diablo?window=all)

Price · $1.12

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.98 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.22% · 8,459 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.04% ±7.05 1,032 openings

7 days · 83.60% ±2.64 7,243 openings

30 days · 84.22% ±2.45 8,459 openings

since tracking started · 84.22% ±2.45 8,459 openings

79.5% 87.0% 94.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.02% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (81.78% – 86.67%, 8,459 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/diablo?window=24h) | 1,032 | 87.04% ±7.05 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/diablo?window=7d) | 7,243 | 83.60% ±2.64 | −2.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/diablo) | 8,459 | 84.22% ±2.45 | −2.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/diablo?window=all) | 8,459 | 84.22% ±2.45 | −2.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,469 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $54.81 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 909 | $14.98 | 1.7% | 5 | 9.3 | 0.54× |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-field-tested) | 1 in 714 | $11.14 | 1.6% | 9 | 11.9 | 0.76× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) | 1 in 625 | $9.74 | 1.6% | 8 | 13.6 | 0.59× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $5.33 | 1.6% | 24 | 25.4 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $4.09 | 6.6% | 144 | 134.7 | 1.07× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 1 in 63 | $4.08 | 6.6% | 108 | 134.7 | 0.80× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $2.99 | 6.6% | 191 | 183.8 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $2.45 | 7.1% | 262 | 241.4 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $2.39 | 2.0% | 50 | 70.3 | 0.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 77 | $1.91 | 2.5% | 77 | 110.1 | 0.70× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 76 | $1.90 | 2.6% | 73 | 111.8 | 0.65× |
| [MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-acid-wash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 122 | $1.81 | 1.5% | 33 | 69.4 | 0.48× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-well-worn) | 1 in 79 | $1.80 | 2.3% | 75 | 107.6 | 0.70× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $1.77 | 2.4% | 80 | 111.8 | 0.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-battle-scarred) | 1 in 74 | $1.75 | 2.4% | 89 | 114.3 | 0.78× |
| [M249 \| Magma (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-magma-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $1.62 | 5.2% | 168 | 264.2 | 0.64× |
| [M249 \| Magma (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-magma-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.39 | 6.0% | 195 | 358.2 | 0.54× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $1.39 | 5.1% | 169 | 303.2 | 0.56× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $1.16 | 6.1% | 245 | 435.3 | 0.56× |
| [MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-acid-wash-well-worn) | 1 in 56 | $1.00 | 1.8% | 117 | 152.4 | 0.77× |
| [MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-acid-wash-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $0.95 | 1.8% | 102 | 158.4 | 0.64× |
| [G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-scavenger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.83 | 4.2% | 436 | 415.0 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.82 | 4.1% | 425 | 416.7 | 1.02× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $0.77 | 0.9% | 66 | 101.6 | 0.65× |
| [MP9 \| Bioleak (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-factory-new) | 1 in 132 | $0.62 | 0.5% | 36 | 64.4 | 0.56× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $0.57 | 0.4% | 29 | 55.0 | 0.53× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.51 | 3.1% | 541 | 503.9 | 1.07× |
| [MP9 \| Bioleak (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-battle-scarred) | 1 in 74 | $0.41 | 0.6% | 70 | 115.2 | 0.61× |
| [MP9 \| Bioleak (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-well-worn) | 1 in 71 | $0.40 | 0.6% | 81 | 118.6 | 0.68× |
| [MP9 \| Bioleak (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $0.39 | 0.6% | 93 | 122.8 | 0.76× |
| [MP9 \| Bioleak (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $0.39 | 0.6% | 78 | 122.8 | 0.64× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $0.38 | 0.4% | 68 | 97.4 | 0.70× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $0.29 | 0.5% | 102 | 141.4 | 0.72× |
| [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.29 | 2.2% | 661 | 631.8 | 1.05× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $0.27 | 0.5% | 116 | 156.7 | 0.74× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-battle-scarred) | 1 in 51 | $0.26 | 0.5% | 111 | 165.1 | 0.67× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.24 | 1.5% | 332 | 519.1 | 0.64× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.17 | 1.6% | 739 | 781.7 | 0.95× |
| [Glock-18 \| High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) | 1 in 10 | $0.15 | 1.5% | 889 | 817.3 | 1.09× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/diablo`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=diablo)

[MP9 | Bioleak weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak) [bbermuudz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/bbermuudz) $1.12 $0.42 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[MP5-SD | Acid Wash weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-acid-wash) [Pièrre Sanchèz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pi%C3%A8rre%20Sanch%C3%A8z) $1.12 $1.13 1.01x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) [ExecutoR](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ExecutoR) $1.12 $0.15 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.12 $0.24 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-factory-new) Hidden $1.12 $0.17 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) [ExecutoR](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ExecutoR) $1.12 $0.15 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[MP9 | Bioleak weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $1.12 $0.42 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[MP9 | Bioleak (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.12 $0.41 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[MP9 | Bioleak (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-well-worn) Hidden $1.12 $0.40 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[MP9 | Bioleak (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-well-worn) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $1.12 $0.40 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $1.12 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $1.12 | 89.15% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $1.12 | 87.27% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.12 | 87.38% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $1.12 | 86.76% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.12 | 88.39% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $1.12 | 87.73% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $1.12 | 86.53% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $1.12 | 86.33% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $1.12 | 86.31% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $1.12 | 86.78% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $1.12 | 86.82% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $1.12 | 86.10% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.12 | 86.55% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $1.12 | 86.63% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $1.12 | 86.72% | 40 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.12 | 87.76% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% classified 0.4% Legendary 0.3% pink 1.6% Classified 1.6% restricted 7.1% Mythical 6.4% Rare 10.5% mil spec 10.0% blue 23.6% Mil Spec Grade 2.7% violet 5.1% #8847ff 4.9% milspec 1.5% #4b69ff 5.5% blueLight 9.2% light blue 9.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt