---
title: "DISCORD case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "DISCORD ($0.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/discord
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [DISCORD](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/discord)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · DISCORD

A case on Key-Drop (COMMUNITY CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/discord?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/discord?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/discord) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/discord?window=all)

Price · $0.00

Advertised RTP · —

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · — · needs odds

Tail share · — · needs odds

Below price · — · needs odds

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/discord?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/discord?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/discord) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/discord?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100,000 | $58.23 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $54.15 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50,000 | $53.21 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $8.40 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $6.65 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $5.59 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $3.64 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $1.01 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $0.60 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $0.50 | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $0.39 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $0.20 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.11 | 8.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M249 \| Bock Blocks (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-bock-blocks-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $0.08 | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $0.06 | 12.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-field-tested) | 34.0% | $0.02 | 18.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M249 \| Sage Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-sage-camo-field-tested) | 34.0% | $0.02 | 18.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Turquoise Pour (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-field-tested) | 16.0% | $0.02 | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/discord`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=discord)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 0.0% classified 0.0% uncommon 0.0% pink 0.0% Mythical 0.0% violet 0.8% blue 11.2% #4b69ff 4.0% gray 34.0% #b0c3d9 34.0% #5e98d9 16.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** Every case pays out less than it costs on average; the rare items carry most of the advertised value and most openings return a fraction of the price. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt