--- title: "DOINA case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "DOINA ($35.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 96.29% over 485 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doina rendered: 2026-11-12T01:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [DOINA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doina) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · DOINA A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doina?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doina?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doina) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doina?window=all) Price · $35.00 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 96.29% · 485 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 20 openings · below min 7 days · 242 openings · below min 30 days · 485 openings · below min since tracking started · 485 openings · below min 38.5% 100.0% 161.5% **Small sample.** 485 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doina?window=24h) | 20 | 58.96% ±19.8 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doina?window=7d) | 242 | 108.49% ±52.3 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doina) | 485 | 96.29% ±26.6 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doina?window=all) | 485 | 96.29% ±26.6 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [DaniMdfK](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/DaniMdfK) $35.00 $1,611 46.02x 2026-11-10 23:37 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [DaniMdfK](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/DaniMdfK) $35.00 $1,587 45.33x 2026-11-10 23:37 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=doina) [MP7 | Abyssal Apparition weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition) [Erico](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Erico) $35.00 $7.77 0.22x 2026-11-12 00:41 UTC [M4A1-S | Party Animal weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal) [Erico](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Erico) $35.00 $10.08 0.29x 2026-11-12 00:41 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov) [Erico](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Erico) $35.00 $54.88 1.57x 2026-11-12 00:33 UTC [M4A4 | In Living Color weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color) [HENRY\_MONROE](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/HENRY_MONROE) $35.00 $40.65 1.16x 2026-11-12 00:32 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.00 $48.06 1.37x 2026-11-12 00:32 UTC [M4A4 | In Living Color (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-well-worn) [HENRY\_MONROE](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/HENRY_MONROE) $35.00 $38.11 1.09x 2026-11-12 00:32 UTC [FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement) [HENRY\_MONROE](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/HENRY_MONROE) $35.00 $6.80 0.19x 2026-11-12 00:31 UTC [MP7 | Abyssal Apparition weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition) [HENRY\_MONROE](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/HENRY_MONROE) $35.00 $7.77 0.22x 2026-11-12 00:30 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) Hidden $35.00 $18.56 0.53x 2026-11-12 00:30 UTC [FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-well-worn) [HENRY\_MONROE](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/HENRY_MONROE) $35.00 $6.58 0.19x 2026-11-12 00:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,611 (46.02x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 96.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $96.29 on average: an expected loss of $3.71 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt