--- title: "DOPPLER EFFECT JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "DOPPLER EFFECT JOKER ($357.99) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 81.96% over 1,133 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doppler-effect-joker rendered: 2026-11-12T01:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [DOPPLER EFFECT JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doppler-effect-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · DOPPLER EFFECT JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doppler-effect-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doppler-effect-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doppler-effect-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doppler-effect-joker?window=all) Price · $357.99 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 81.96% · 1,133 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 115 openings · below min 7 days · 82.77% ±6.13 1,072 openings 30 days · 81.96% ±5.88 1,133 openings since tracking started · 81.96% ±5.88 1,133 openings 58.0% 74.5% 91.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doppler-effect-joker?window=24h) | 115 | 74.50% ±16.1 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doppler-effect-joker?window=7d) | 1,072 | 82.77% ±6.13 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doppler-effect-joker) | 1,133 | 81.96% ±5.88 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doppler-effect-joker?window=all) | 1,133 | 81.96% ±5.88 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $357 $1,575 4.42x 2026-11-08 00:08 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $357 $1,575 4.42x 2026-11-08 00:03 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $357 $1,575 4.42x 2026-11-08 00:03 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $357 $1,575 4.42x 2026-11-08 00:03 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $357 $1,575 4.42x 2026-11-07 23:48 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [Instant\_Galaxyx7](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Instant_Galaxyx7) $357 $1,575 4.42x 2026-11-07 23:48 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $357 $1,575 4.42x 2026-11-07 23:41 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $357 $1,575 4.42x 2026-11-07 23:40 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $357 $1,575 4.42x 2026-11-07 23:40 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $357 $1,575 4.42x 2026-11-07 23:39 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=doppler-effect-joker) [XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-monster-melt-field-tested) [kaykymourao](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kaykymourao) $353 $2.11 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:54 UTC [Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) [xan](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/xan) $353 $4.36 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:00 UTC [M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) [OjczymLeny](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/OjczymLeny) $353 $0.41 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:21 UTC [M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) [OjczymLeny](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/OjczymLeny) $346 $0.47 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:20 UTC [XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-monster-melt-field-tested) Hidden $346 $2.14 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:20 UTC [FAMAS | Bad Trip (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-well-worn) Hidden $346 $55.40 0.16x 2026-11-11 16:20 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · gold · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [OjczymLeny](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/OjczymLeny) $353 $287 0.81x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC [Sticker | Ruby Wave sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ruby-wave) Hidden $346 $4.93 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC [Sticker | Bolt Charge sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bolt-charge) Hidden $346 $2.22 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · gold · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [OjczymLeny](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/OjczymLeny) $346 $294 0.85x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,575 (4.42x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 82.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $81.96 on average: an expected loss of $18.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt