--- title: "DOPPLER EFFECT case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "DOPPLER EFFECT ($8.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 87.91% over 37.7K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doppler-effect rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [DOPPLER EFFECT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doppler-effect) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · DOPPLER EFFECT A case on Key-Drop (IMPERIAL CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doppler-effect?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doppler-effect?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doppler-effect) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doppler-effect?window=all) Price · $8.00 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $7.00 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.91% · 37.7K openings, odds method Variance · 25.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 93 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 99.88% ±12.68 5,990 openings 7 days · 87.83% ±5.62 30.4K openings 30 days · 87.91% ±5.05 37.7K openings since tracking started · 87.91% ±5.05 37.7K openings 81.5% 97.2% 113.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doppler-effect?window=24h) | 5,990 | 99.88% ±12.7 | +1.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doppler-effect?window=7d) | 30.4K | 87.83% ±5.62 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doppler-effect) | 37.7K | 87.91% ±5.05 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/doppler-effect?window=all) | 37.7K | 87.91% ±5.05 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 33,333 | $1,505 | 0.6% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.76× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · legendary · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 14,286 | $924 | 0.9% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.75× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 3,333 | $610 | 2.6% | 11 | 11.4 | 0.97× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 833 | $474 | 8.1% | 53 | 45.6 | 1.16× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 769 | $453 | 8.4% | 46 | 49.4 | 0.93× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 667 | $389 | 8.3% | 54 | 57.0 | 0.95× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · gold · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 500 | $287 | 8.2% | 65 | 76.0 | 0.86× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · gold · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 455 | $260 | 8.2% | 67 | 83.6 | 0.80× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 455 | $257 | 8.1% | 87 | 83.6 | 1.04× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 333 | $191 | 8.2% | 103 | 113.9 | 0.90× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 294 | $168 | 8.1% | 92 | 129.1 | 0.71× | | [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $49.23 | 3.5% | 199 | 189.9 | 1.05× | | [Sticker \| Ruby Wave sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ruby-wave) | 10.1% | $4.93 | 7.1% | 5,609 | 3817.1 | 1.47× | | [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) | 11.9% | $4.27 | 7.2% | 5,793 | 4512.1 | 1.28× | | [Sticker \| Bolt Charge sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bolt-charge) | 14.5% | $2.20 | 4.6% | 5,937 | 5503.4 | 1.08× | | [XM1014 \| Monster Melt (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-monster-melt-field-tested) | 14.6% | $2.14 | 4.5% | 6,049 | 5549.0 | 1.09× | | [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-field-tested) | 22.1% | $0.54 | 1.7% | 6,819 | 8390.0 | 0.81× | | [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) | 24.7% | $0.45 | 1.6% | 6,993 | 9366.1 | 0.75× | Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/doppler-effect`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [mika](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/mika) $8.00 $1,526 190.8x 2026-11-06 22:26 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [mika](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/mika) $8.00 $1,526 190.8x 2026-11-06 22:24 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · legendary · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $8.00 $962 120.2x 2026-11-07 04:01 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · legendary · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [尺のﾶﾑ丂んズﾑ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E5%B0%BA%E3%81%AE%EF%BE%B6%EF%BE%91%E4%B8%82%E3%82%93%E3%82%BA%EF%BE%91) $8.00 $924 115.5x 2026-11-10 23:01 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $8.00 $620 77.50x 2026-11-09 00:56 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $8.00 $612 76.53x 2026-11-07 05:28 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $8.00 $610 76.30x 2026-11-03 07:25 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [shz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/shz) $8.00 $610 76.24x 2026-11-11 01:26 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [尺のﾶﾑ丂んズﾑ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E5%B0%BA%E3%81%AE%EF%BE%B6%EF%BE%91%E4%B8%82%E3%82%93%E3%82%BA%EF%BE%91) $8.00 $610 76.24x 2026-11-10 22:55 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $8.00 $609 76.12x 2026-11-10 07:23 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=doppler-effect) [XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-monster-melt-field-tested) [GITES](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/GITES) $8.00 $2.14 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [Sticker | Ruby Wave sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ruby-wave) [GITES](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/GITES) $8.00 $4.93 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [P90 | Wave Breaker (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-field-tested) [GITES](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/GITES) $8.00 $0.54 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) [GITES](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/GITES) $8.00 $4.27 0.53x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [P90 | Wave Breaker (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-field-tested) [GITES](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/GITES) $8.00 $0.54 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [Sticker | Bolt Charge sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bolt-charge) [GITES](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/GITES) $8.00 $2.20 0.28x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [Sticker | Bolt Charge sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bolt-charge) [GITES](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/GITES) $8.00 $2.20 0.28x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-monster-melt-field-tested) [GITES](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/GITES) $8.00 $2.14 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-monster-melt-field-tested) [GITES](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/GITES) $8.00 $2.14 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-monster-melt-field-tested) [GITES](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/GITES) $8.00 $2.14 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $8.00 | 87.50% | 18 | | 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $8.00 | 87.51% | 18 | | 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $8.00 | 86.99% | 18 | | 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $8.00 | 87.87% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $8.00 | 87.48% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $8.00 | 87.44% | 18 | | 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $8.00 | 87.63% | 18 | | 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $8.00 | 87.40% | 18 | | 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $8.00 | 87.81% | 18 | | 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $8.00 | 87.69% | 18 | | 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $8.00 | 87.51% | 18 | | 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $8.00 | 87.58% | 18 | | 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $8.00 | 87.06% | 18 | | 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $8.00 | 87.11% | 18 | | 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $8.00 | 87.99% | 18 | | 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $8.00 | 87.27% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.00 | 87.95% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.3% legendary 0.0% gold 0.4% red 10.6% pink 26.4% violet 61.4% best hit $1,526 (190.8x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt